Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
925 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TRANSITION TO WINTRY PCPN WORKING ACROSS THE MID-STATE...WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NASHVILLE CURRENTLY IN
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN REGIME...WITH SNOW NOT FAR BEHIND.

SHALLOW COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTHEAST BEHIND FRONT BUT
NEWEST NAM/RUC DATA SHOWING DEEP WARM NOSE STARTING JUST ABOVE
3KFT HANGING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE PLATEAU...AND
CHANGE OVER THERE EXPECTED MIDNIGHT TO 3AM. THIS SCENARIO MAY
TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY MORE ICING THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...
POSSIBLY AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR HIGHER THROUGH 8 OR 9AM
THU...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTHERN END.

LOCALS INCLUDING AND WEST/SOUTH OF NASHVILLE EXPECTED TRANSITION
TO SLEET/SNOW LARGELY BY MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
LATER NEAR TO AL BORDER. WHILE ICE AMOUNTS COULD BE HIGHER THAN
1/4 INCH ON THE PLATEAU...LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT EXPECTED
SNOW/SLEET AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE STILL VERY MUCH IN THE BALLPARK. THE
NORTHWEST AND THE HIGHLAND RIM STILL LOOKING FOR 3-6 INCHES
SNOWFALL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
COULD SEE POCKETS OF SNOW 6+ VERY EASILY.

CURRENT FORECAST ONLY NEEDS MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME. PLAN TO
RAISE ICE ACCUM PLATEAU. TEMPS RUNNING LITTLE COOLER...AND WITH
EXPECTED PCPN OVERNIGHT...WILL LOWER A BIT. WINTER STORM WARNING
CONTINUES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...FOR NASHVILLE AIRPORT

AVIATION...

..A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LOOKS LIKELY THIS EVENING AT
NASHVILLE TERMINAL...

BASED ON LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR NASHVILLE
TERMINAL BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET BEGINNING AT 02Z WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BECOMING MIXED AT 04Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL
06Z AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 07Z WHEN A SNOW AND SLEET MIX BEGINS IN
NASHVILLE...THEN BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 12Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL 18Z
ON THURSDAY.

AT 01Z DEPTH OF WARM LAYER ON LAPS SOUNDING FOR BNA AT 6K WITH
WARM NOSE AT A +3C WITH MINIMUM TEMP IN THE COLD LAYER AT -4C.
SO IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
DEVELOPING ABOUT MID EVENING IN NASHVILLE AND CONTINUING THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ008>011-
027>034-064>066.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ056>063-075-
077>080-093>095.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1154 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

TNZ005>007-023>026-051800-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-
1154 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM CST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL WILL CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH...ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL RANGE FROM 3
TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM AND AREAS AROUND CLARKSVILLE.
THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL
BELOW FREEZING...ROADWAYS WILL BE EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS THROUGH
FRIDAY UNTIL SOME MELTING CAN OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT ANY ICE...SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE.

TNZ008>011-027>034-064>066-051800-
SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-
PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-
1154 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL WILL CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX THIS EVENING AS SUB-
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN
ADDITION TO FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR SO...ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO
5 INCHES WITH AREAS NEAREST I-65 AND THE KENTUCKY BORDER SEEING
THE MOST SLEET AND SNOW. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
TO NEAR 10 DEGREES THURSDAY MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
WELL BELOW FREEZING...ROADWAYS WILL BE EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS
THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL SOME MELTING CAN OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT ANY ICE...SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE.

TNZ056>063-075-077>080-093>095-051800-
PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-
BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
1154 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON
CST THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

RAINFALL WILL CHANGEOVER TO A WINTRY MIX TONIGHT AS SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WORK THEIR WAY IN FROM THE NORTH. FREEZING RAIN WILL
BE THE MAIN IMPACT...WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER
INCH. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH THE LEAST NEAR THE ALABAMA BORDER. THIS WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ALL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

MORE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV OR
BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TO JUST SNOW BY MIDDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO
NEAR 10 DEGREES THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL. WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW FREEZING...ROADWAYS WILL BE EXTREMELY
TREACHEROUS THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL SOME MELTING CAN OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT ANY ICE...SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE.

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
514 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     FLOOD            8 WSW WATERTOWN         36.04N  86.26W
03/04/2015                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FOOT OF WATER OVER BLUE WELL ROAD AND NORENE ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500344

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
616 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     FLOOD            WATERTOWN               36.10N  86.14W
03/04/2015                   WILSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            BEECH LOG ROAD NEAR SHERRILLTOWN ROAD IS IMPASSABLE.
            FALL CREEK ROAD NEAR SALEM ROAD AND SIMMONS BLUFF ROAD
            HAS APPROXIMATELY 18 INCHES OF WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500345

MR3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
759 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0752 PM     FLOOD            2 E LEBANON             36.21N  86.29W
03/04/2015                   WILSON             TN   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS THE 2800 BLOCK OF BLUEBIRD RD IS
            IMPASSABLE DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROADWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500346

MR3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
855 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     SLEET            CLARKSVILLE             36.56N  87.35W
03/04/2015  M1.0 INCH        MONTGOMERY         TN   FACEBOOK

            PUBLIC MEASURED 1 INCH OF SLEET ACCUMULATION IN
            CLARKSVILLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500347

MR3

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
900 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     SLEET            BIG ROCK                36.58N  87.76W
03/04/2015  M1.0 INCH        STEWART            TN   FACEBOOK

            PUBLIC SUBMITTED A PICTURE OF A SLEET MEASUREMENT OF 1
            INCH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX1500348

MR3

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