Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
644 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AHEAD OF
THIS...STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S EXTEND ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. LATEST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WHICH WILL BE MOVING INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
WHERE MLCAPE IS AROUND 2000 J/KG. STRONG BULK LAYER SHEAR IS
ALREADY PRESENT AND SO FEELING IS THAT AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...STORMS WILL CONTINUE FIRE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS SOME
HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEB. NICELY CURVED
HODOGRAPHS WITH IMPRESSIVE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES IN THE LOWEST
3 KM WOULD SUGGEST A TORNADO THREAT INTITIALLY THEN WE TRANSITION
INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS OVERNIGHT. THE SHORT TERM
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT 2 MAIN AREAS OF
DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST IS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHICH IS
ALREADY ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD INTO A DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT. THE SECOND AND MAIN AREA
OF DEVELOPMENT WITH A TORNADIC THREAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

THIS WILL ALSO BRING HEAVY RAIN THREAT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WIND/HAIL THREAT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO EVOLVE INTO
ONE THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR BACKBUILDING WITH DOWNSTREAM TRAINING AS
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET NUDGES NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION.
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WOULD ALSO IMPLY SOME FORWARD PROPAGATING
COMPONENTS. WILL BE HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
OUR NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE BACKBUILDING WILL BE THE GREATEST ISSUE
IN ADDITION TO EXTREMELY HIGH PW VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE CWA THROUGHOUT SUNDAY...WITH
SOME STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WHERE STRONGER HEATING TAKES PLACE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES
OVERHEAD. MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

AT 2330Z THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY APPROACHING KOFK. THESE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NORTHEAST OF KOFK BY 003Z. KOFK REMAINS IN A
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 02Z.  KOMA AND KLNK WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 02Z. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
FIRED ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING OUT OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
REMAIN NORTH OF TAF SITES BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. AFTER 12Z
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH ALL TAF SITES WITH WINDS SHIFING TO THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ012-015-018-
     032>034.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056.

&&

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...MEYER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
439 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-071145-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
439 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THERE IS A RISK FOR TORNADOES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA UNTIL
9 PM AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1051 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 PM     FLOOD            4 S COLERIDGE           42.45N 97.20W
06/06/2015                   CEDAR              NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER OVER JUNCTION HWY 57 AND 59 STILL PASSABLE

&&

DFOBERT