Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SEVERE WATCH 15 WAS ISSUED EARLIER VALID UNTIL 06Z. STORMS ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAVE PRODUCED UP TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. BELIEVE THIS MAY TRANSITION
INTO MORE OF A WIND EVENT AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE COLD FRONT AT 19Z WAS LOCATED FROM EAST CENTRAL SD THROUGH
NORTHWEST KANSAS...WITH SOME MINIMAL DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS WESTERN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. HRRR MODEL
HAS INDICATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT INTO
ANTELOPE/KNOX COUNTIES BY 21Z...BUT THIS STILL SEEMS ABOUT 1 HOUR
TOO SOON...DEFINITELY PREFERRING THE 12Z HIRES NMM/ARW AND 00Z
SPC SSEO MODELS SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL 22-23Z.

MEANWHILE...THE MOISTURE RETURN HAS STRUGGLED IN OUR AREA...FIRST
BEING IMPEDED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO OUR SOUTH...AND NOW
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN MIXING DOWN DESPITE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH AT TIMES HAVE MET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND STRONG WINDS HAS LED TO VERY HIGH
DANGER AS WELL. LOW 50S DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THOUGH...WE SHOULD SEE DEWPOINTS RECOVER INTO
THE 50S THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL.

BULK WIND SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT 30-35 KNOTS
INITIALLY... BUT SHOULD INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING. LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN WHICH MAY HELP BOOST
STORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE LATER INTO THE
EVENING...THEN INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE A BIT.

FEELING IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
22-23Z...THEN DEVELOP INTO MORE OF A LINER CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...AND OUT
OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STORMS PROBABLY DON'T REACH
LINCOLN UNTIL 8-9 PM AND OMAHA 9-10 PM...AND SOUTHEAST NE AND
SOUTHWEST IA EVEN LATER. SOME AREAS COULD GET AROUND AN INCH OF
RAIN PLUS OR MINUS...BUT STILL WELL WITHIN 3 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES OF JUST OVER 2 INCHES.

DRY AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THEN EVEN COOLER FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

EASTER SUNDAY SHOULD ALSO BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S. AS WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
REDEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN GFS/ECMWF AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE DETAILS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED OVER KOFK AT
TAF ISSUANCE. STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE EAST OF KOFK BY 01Z.
KLNK/KOMA WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 20 GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.
STORMS ARRIVE AT KLNK BY 03Z AND KOMA BY 04Z. STORMS AFFECT THESE
TWO LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z...THEN VFR AFTERWARD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEWALD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
539 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ012-015-017-018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-021245-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-CEDAR-THURSTON-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-
BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-
SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-
PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
539 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT UNTIL ABOUT 7 TO 8 PM.

SCATTERED SEVERE TO THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THEN SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT. SOME STORMS
MAY BE SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER SOME AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

NEZ011-016-021245-
KNOX-ANTELOPE-
539 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

DEWALD

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
838 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

NEZ033-034-043>045-050-051-020200-
DODGE NE-COLFAX NE-BUTLER NE-WASHINGTON NE-BURT NE-SAUNDERS NE-
CUMING NE-
838 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DODGE...NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...SOUTHEASTERN CUMING...SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX...NORTHWESTERN
SAUNDERS...CENTRAL BUTLER AND SOUTHERN BURT COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
CDT...

AT 837 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR WEST POINT TO NEAR
RISING CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WELL AHEAD OF THESE STORMS WHERE WINDS MAY ALSO BE GUSTY
AND CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FREMONT...DAVID CITY...TEKAMAH...NORTH BEND...SCRIBNER...HOOPER...
CEDAR BLUFFS...RISING CITY...NICKERSON...BRAINARD...PRAGUE...
UEHLING...CRAIG...OAKLAND...MORSE BLUFF...OCTAVIA...WINSLOW...
BRUNO...ROGERS AND LINWOOD.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.

LAT...LON 4181 9610 4115 9687 4117 9737 4190 9648
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 260DEG 34KT 4177 9668 4124 9731

MILLER