Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
747 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SPARKED A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO
HOLD TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE A STRONGER
TROUGH DIGS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SWRN MN THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SD AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS IN THE WARM SECTOR...SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S POOLING ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WE WILL BE LACKING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATED ANY REAL ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY JUST A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS.

THE SFC FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
STATIONARY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH. AT
THE SAME TIME..THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO EJECT IMPULSES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND TOWARD EASTERN COLORADO. STORMS MAY BE
ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE SEVERE RISK WILL
INCREASE WITH PEAK HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG SFC
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON
AS WELL. ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IOWA HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY MID DAY GIVING THE
REGION A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE BASE MOVES THROUGH NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRONG WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THETA-E AXIS WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH PW'S AROUND 1.25 TO 1.50"
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

AN ACTIVE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOK ACTIVE AS WELL
WITH PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 729 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND STALL OVER NORTHERN KANSAS AND THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AT KLNK THROUGH 10Z....AND THEN AGAIN AFTER 16Z.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KOMA AFTER 18Z ON MONDAY. KOFK IS
EXPECTED TO BE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 05/00Z. HOWEVER CLOUD CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO OVC050 BY
04/21Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...SMITH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
410 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-041115-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
410 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY EVEN APPROACH OR BECOME
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR STORMS INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

RIPPLES OF ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COULD TRIGGER STORMS IN THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...BUT PLEASE PASS ALONG REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
817 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 PM     HAIL             LINCOLN                 40.82N 96.69W
05/03/2015  E1.75 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL AT 33RD AND YANKEE HILL.

&&

LANDSVORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
821 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0818 PM     HAIL             WALTHILL                42.15N 96.49W
05/03/2015  E1.00 INCH       THURSTON           NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

LANDSVORK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
824 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

NEZ033-043-044-040215-
DODGE NE-COLFAX NE-CUMING NE-
824 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 823 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HOWELLS...OR 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCRIBNER...DODGE...HOWELLS...SNYDER AND DEAD TIMBER STATE RECREATION
AREA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 275 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND
129.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4182 9701 4181 9663 4170 9659 4165 9669
      4169 9702
TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 276DEG 19KT 4175 9695

NIETFELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
846 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TORNADO          1 N ADAMS               40.47N 96.51W
05/03/2015                   GAGE               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO CROSSING HIGWAY 77 NORTH OF CORTLAND.

&&

LANDSVORK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
847 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TORNADO          2 NE ADAMS              40.48N 96.48W
05/03/2015                   GAGE               NE   STORM CHASER

&&

LANDSVORK

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