Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
339 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORT MAX CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS SPARKED A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO
HOLD TOGETHER. OTHERWISE...A MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WHILE A STRONGER
TROUGH DIGS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM SWRN MN THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN SD AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA. AHEAD OF THIS IN THE WARM SECTOR...SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S POOLING ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HEATING...WE
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WE WILL BE LACKING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATED ANY REAL ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER...MAINLY JUST A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS.

THE SFC FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN
STATIONARY UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTH. AT
THE SAME TIME..THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL BEGIN TO EJECT IMPULSES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND TOWARD EASTERN COLORADO. STORMS MAY BE
ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE SEVERE RISK WILL
INCREASE WITH PEAK HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG SFC
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY AFTERNOON
AS WELL. ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST IOWA HAVE BEEN OUTLOOKED IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR DAY 2.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA BY MID DAY GIVING THE
REGION A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS THE BASE MOVES THROUGH NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO. STRONG WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK IN WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THETA-E AXIS WILL
EXTEND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH PW'S AROUND 1.25 TO 1.50"
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

AN ACTIVE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND LOOK ACTIVE AS WELL
WITH PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE THIS AFTN ALONG A COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU ERN NEB.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY APPROACH OR BECOME SEVERE
LATE THIS AFTN. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR
POSSIBLE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS
THEN PREVAILING THIS EVENING THRU THE REST OF THE FCST PD.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
410 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-041115-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
410 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY EVEN APPROACH OR BECOME
SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR STORMS INTO MONDAY NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

RIPPLES OF ENERGY MOVING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
COULD TRIGGER STORMS IN THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...BUT PLEASE PASS ALONG REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING
WINDS. STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
433 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

NEZ051-065>067-032200-
CASS NE-SEWARD NE-LANCASTER NE-SAUNDERS NE-
433 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CASS...NORTHERN
LANCASTER...SOUTHERN SAUNDERS AND EAST CENTRAL SEWARD COUNTIES UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

AT 432 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PLEASANT DALE...OR 10 MILES WEST OF LINCOLN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINCOLN...WAVERLY...MALCOLM...DENTON...RAYMOND...DAVEY...CONESTOGA
STATE RECREATION AREA AND PAWNEE STATE RECREATION AREA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 60 AND 77.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 388 AND 412.

LAT...LON 4071 9687 4087 9697 4105 9660 4087 9646
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 240DEG 26KT 4084 9688

FOBERT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
511 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

NEZ066-032245-
LANCASTER NE-
511 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LANCASTER COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

AT 510 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LINCOLN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LINCOLN...DENTON AND DAVEY.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 77 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 54 AND 77.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 392 AND 409.

LAT...LON 4065 9679 4080 9688 4104 9663 4077 9647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 234DEG 10KT 4079 9678

FOBERT

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
616 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HAIL             ROCA                    40.66N 96.66W
05/03/2015  E1.00 INCH       LANCASTER          NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LANDSVORK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
626 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

NEZ032-033-040015-
STANTON NE-CUMING NE-
626 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL STANTON AND CUMING
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 626 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTH OF PILGER...OR 22 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NORFOLK...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WISNER...BEEMER AND 10 MILES WEST OF WEST POINT.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 275 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 101 AND
113.

LAT...LON 4179 9702 4193 9709 4209 9680 4189 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 240DEG 12KT 4189 9702

FOBERT