Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
632 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

TRANSITIONING TO A WETTER PERIOD FOR THE SHORT TERM.

TODAY...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING WEST/EAST ACROSS THE REGION HAS
HELPED TRIGGER SEVERE STORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF OMAHA...AND GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. OTHER SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE POPPED
UP IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AS DAYTIME
HEATING HAS INCREASED...BUT THESE HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER.

HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN IN EARNEST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. SHOULD
SEE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE WEST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT WITH A MOIST AXIS REMAINING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.

IF ANYTHING DOES POP UP OVERNIGHT...IT COULD LINGER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AGAIN...THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...THEN MOVING TOWARD AT
LEAST A PORTION OF EASTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

POPS FOR OUR AREA SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. PRECIP
CHANCES BEGINS TO WANE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY DRIFTS TO THE SOUTH...WITH LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE UPPER
RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD BE JUST ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD HELP
PUSH A COOL FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR MONDAY...MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
INSTEAD OF THE GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

INFLUX OF LLVL MOISTURE AND PASSING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY
INDUCE SCT TSRA OVER ERN NEB EARLY WED MORNING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER DISTURBANCE...EXPECT DURATION FOR PCPN ACTIVITY WILL BE
LONGEST AT KOFK WITH MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY BTWN
12Z- 18Z. AS FOR KOMA/KLNK...MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY
BTWN 09Z-13Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
427 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-231130-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
427 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1016 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     HAIL             3 NNW COLUMBUS          41.47N 97.39W
09/22/2015  E1.00 INCH       PLATTE             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LANDSVORK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1028 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

NEZ032-033-043-044-230400-
DODGE NE-COLFAX NE-STANTON NE-CUMING NE-
1028 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN STANTON...
NORTHWESTERN DODGE...SOUTHERN CUMING AND NORTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

AT 1028 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR HOWELLS...OR 29 MILES NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEST POINT...SCRIBNER...DODGE...HOWELLS...SNYDER...10 MILES WEST OF
WEST POINT AND DEAD TIMBER STATE RECREATION AREA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 275 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 113 AND
132.

LAT...LON 4182 9703 4191 9669 4162 9653 4164 9705
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 273DEG 18KT 4173 9695

MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

NEZ031>033-042>044-230430-
DODGE NE-COLFAX NE-PLATTE NE-STANTON NE-MADISON NE-CUMING NE-
1047 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STANTON...NORTHWESTERN DODGE...
WESTERN CUMING...NORTHERN COLFAX...SOUTHEASTERN MADISON AND
NORTHEASTERN PLATTE COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

AT 1046 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR LEIGH...OR 21 MILES SOUTH OF NORFOLK...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.
OTHER STORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF STANTON AND CUMING
COUNTIES...AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE HAIL.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STANTON...WISNER...CLARKSON...DODGE...HOWELLS...LEIGH...PILGER...
CRESTON...MAPLE CREEK RECREATION AREA...THE HIGHWAY 15 AND 32
JUNCTION...8 MILES SOUTH OF STANTON AND 10 MILES WEST OF WEST POINT.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 275 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 78 AND
106.

LAT...LON 4174 9739 4174 9738 4175 9739 4208 9737
      4208 9680 4172 9684 4166 9739
TIME...MOT...LOC 0346Z 197DEG 17KT 4175 9727

MILLER