Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE ANY STRATUS/FOG/POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEN
INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

THE H5 PATTERN HAD A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY
WITH WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE H5 RIDGE WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THE ACTIVE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO AND WITH THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXTENDED INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.AND ROCKIES
INTO TEXAS AND ACROSS MEXICO. THE LATEST WSR-88D RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LOCALLY...SOME OF THE CIRRUS WAS SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S.  OUR 00Z SOUNDING HAD DRIED OUT FROM H85 AND
ABOVE...HOWEVER THERE WAS DEEP MOISTURE BELOW THIS LAYER...
ACCOUNTING FOR THE PWAT OF 0.92 OF AN INCH. SURFACE METARS
REVEALED FOG...SOME DENSE AT 08Z WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

THIS MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED NORTH OF MITCHEL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND O NEILL NEBRASKA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
60S AND DEPRESSIONS WILL REMAIN LOW. AREAS OF FOG ARE FAVORED
THROUGH 18Z...SOME DENSE...LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE RAP HAS THE FOCUS OF DENSE FOG IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 585DM HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE TO 588DM TODAY WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HEIGHTS LOWER OVER COLORADO AS AN H5 SPEED MAX APPROACHES AND OMEGA
INCREASES. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS A DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE WITH
THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE WARMER AIR
ACROSS KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S NORTH...WITH MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER
THE FRONT AND CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSHOWER. THE RAP/HRRR SEEM TO FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FARTHER
NORTH AND IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
LOCATION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP.

TONIGHT...THE OPEN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES CLOSES OFF
WITH OMEGA INCREASING TO THE WEST AND TO THE NORTH. WITH THE
DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES EVEN MORE ORGANIZED
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY. WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. WE ARE OUTLOOKED IN
THE EXCESSIVE RAIN AREA FOR DAY THREE (WED/WED NIGHT)...BUT WILL
NEED TO SEE HOW THE STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES UNTIL THEN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...THE TROPICAL REMNANTS CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA...MORESO WITH THE EC COMPARED TO THE
NAM/GFS. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING NEAR KOFK. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE CIGS LIFT AND VSBYS IMPROVE TO
VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AT KLNK AND KOMA
THROUGH MID MORNING...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
COULD DEVELOP FOR A SHORT TIME AS WELL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THAT AREA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
502 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-230015-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
501 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING. SPOTTY NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THEN THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN IOWA. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...THEN
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ZAPOTOCNY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
840 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

NEZ017-221415-
PIERCE NE-
840 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PIERCE COUNTY UNTIL 915
AM CDT...

AT 840 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES SOUTHEAST OF PLAINVIEW...OR 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF NORFOLK...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PIERCE...FOSTER AND WILLOW CREEK STATE RECREATION AREA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 81 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILEMARKERS 163 AND 174.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4220 9778 4234 9772 4230 9737 4210 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 1340Z 292DEG 17KT 4225 9769

FOBERT

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