Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
717 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015

EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NOW INCLUDES PARTS OF SERN NE.
LINCOLN AREA HAS HAD A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN...STORMS LIKELY TO
AFFECT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015

STORMS HAD DEVELOPED NEAR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS AROUND 6 PM. THE
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AS COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MERGE. VERY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT ALSO FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND MENTIONED IN
EARLIER AFD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT NECESSARY INGREDIENTS ARE COMING
TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENING BEGINNING TONIGHT.
IMPRESSIVE GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO TAKE PLACE IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE CWA. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE BNDRY IS EXPECTED RESULTING IN PWS APPROACHING
2.5"/KI VALUES OF 40. SFC BNDRY EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT THEN ON MONDAY
MORNING...EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION TO WRN KS.

FACTORS FAVORING AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVEN INCLUDE CORFIDI
VECTORS LESS THAN 10KT WITHIN AREA WHERE MAX OMEGA WILL BE
COINCIDENT TO HIGH DEGREE OF PCPN EFFICIENCY IN WAY OF DEEP WARM
CLOUD LYR/LLVL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. AND WITH PROLONGED PERIODS OF
FORCING VIA MOIST 310K UPGLIDE IT IS QUITE PROBABLE AMOUNTS
RANGING FROM 2-4 INCHES WILL BE REALIZED OVER SWRN IA...THUS
EXCEEDING CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE WITHIN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
WATCH OUTLINE. MODELS IN AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SFC BNDRY/PCPN
ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD OF THE CWA THEN SOMETIME
EARLY WED MORNING.

A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED TUES/WED. AND WITH MET/MAV MAX
TEMPS LOOKING REASONABLE...WILL GO WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S/LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTN HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW/MID 70S. OTHERWISE SMALL CHANCES FOR PCPN OCCURRING WED NIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH COMBINATION OF
LLVL THETA-E ADV AND LOW/MID LYR AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WITH
MOISTURE RETURN RIDING UP ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. GOING POPS LOOK
REASONABLE SO NOT MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015

TSRA IN THE KLNK AREA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME HAVE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL BUT STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN SOUTH OF THE
AIRPORT. KLNK AND KOMA WILL HAVE TSRA POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
EVENING. CDFNT WILL SWITCH WINDS TO N/NW AFTER PASSAGE. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW EXTENSIVE THESE WILL BE AND
WILL TRY TO FINE TO IN LATER TAFS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NEZ066>068-089>093.

IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR IAZ056-069-079-080-
     090-091.

&&

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
645 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015

IAZ043-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050-065-071345-
MONONA-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SEWARD-
645 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BUT
CHANCES ARE HIGHER FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WEATHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS EVENING BUT MAY BE NEEDED
MONDAY.

IAZ055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ051>053-066>068-078-088>093-
071345-
HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-PAGE-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-
JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
645 PM CDT SUN SEP 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA...
EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA THIS EVENING. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM SEWARD
TO FREMONT AND HARLAN. MODERATE INSTABILITY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...
HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE HAIL.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST IOWA. AREAS THAT RECEIVE SEVERAL PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FEW STORMS
MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS PLEASE PASS ALONG ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING. SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED MONDAY.

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