Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY HAS BROUGHT A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF RAIN TO THE AREA TODAY...RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE CLOUD COVER THAT HAS LINGERED INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STEADIER SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN MANY
AREAS AND CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO THIN...ADDITIONAL VERY SHORT
TERM CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS DOUBT. PRECIP WAS ALSO LIKELY BEING
AIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET...BUT
THAT WAS MOVING AWAY RESULTING IN LESS FORCING FOR OUR AREA.
SURFACE PATTERN WAS HIGHLY PERTURBED BY THE RAIN TODAY.
HOWEVER...AN OBJECTIVE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED WHAT COULD BE
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS
HAD BUBBLED UP ALONG THIS FRONT...SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED QUITE
A BIT OF SURFACE CIN STILL IN THE AREA THUS THEY WERE STRUGGLING.
BULK SHEAR VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGION. WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT SUBTLE SHORT WAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...COMBINED WITH THE NORTHWARD
MOVING WARM FRONT AND A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TO GET
STRONGER CONVECTION TO FIRE LATER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN
QUITE HIGH AROUND 2 INCHES...THUS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FORECAST. THIS
RAIN IS HOWEVER FALLING IN AN AREA THAT DID NOT SEE THE HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLIER THIS MORNING...THUS BELIEVE WE CAN TAKE IT
WITHOUT TOO MUCH TROUBLE. FOR ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL HELICITY IS QUITE HIGH...AND THERE STILL
APPEARS TO BE A TORNADO THREAT...BUT CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
I80. PRECIP CHANCE WANE BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH
COULD BRING AN SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS. ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. IT ALSO GETS HOT
AGAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. VERY HUMID CONDITIONS REDEVELOP WITH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WHICH RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA APPEARS TO BE SATURDAY WHEN HEAT INDEX VALUES
COULD REACH 105 IN MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOW SETTLES INTO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS DOES RESULT IN COOLER
TEMPS AND A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY...BUT ALSO BRINGS
CONTINUED SMALL CHANCES FOR STORMS THAT LINGERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY. ANOTHER VERY SUBTLE WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR POPS. WEDNESDAY
COULD VERY WELL BE DRY...BUT DAY 7 MODEL BLENDS SUGGEST SMALL
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

LATEST OBS SHOWING MIX OF MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS OVER ERN
NEB WITH SCT TSRA MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80. MEANWHILE RADAR
MOSAIC IS SHOWING ISOLATED TSRA POPPING UP OVER S-CNTRL NEB MOVING
TO THE EAST. AT THIS POINT BELIEVE MAIN THREAT AT KOFK WILL BE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS. AT
KOMA/KLNK...HAVE TEMPO GROUPS IN PLACE IN ANTICIPATION OF TSRA
ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THEN AT ALL SITES BY 16/15Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...DEE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
217 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

IAZ069-079-NEZ051>053-067-160800-
MILLS IA-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-DOUGLAS NE-CASS NE-SAUNDERS NE-SARPY NE-
217 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN POTTAWATTAMIE...
SOUTHWESTERN MILLS...CASS...SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS...SOUTHEASTERN
SAUNDERS AND SARPY COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 217 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MURDOCK...OR 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF LINCOLN...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN OMAHA...SOUTHWESTERN COUNCIL BLUFFS...BELLEVUE...
PAPILLION...LA VISTA...PLATTSMOUTH...RALSTON...GRETNA...ASHLAND...
SPRINGFIELD...LOUISVILLE...WEEPING WATER...ELMWOOD...MURRAY...CEDAR
CREEK...MURDOCK...OFFUTT AFB...MANLEY...MEMPHIS AND SOUTH BEND.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 34 IN IOWA NEAR MILE MARKER 1.
 HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 73 AND 88.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA NEAR MILE MARKER 1.
 INTERSTATE 80 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 420 AND 444...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 452 AND 454.

LAT...LON 4079 9635 4112 9644 4124 9591 4093 9582
TIME...MOT...LOC 0717Z 251DEG 26KT 4096 9634

MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
226 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

IAZ090-NEZ067-068-091-160815-
FREMONT IA-NEMAHA NE-CASS NE-OTOE NE-
226 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREMONT...SOUTHEASTERN CASS...
NORTHEASTERN NEMAHA AND EASTERN OTOE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 AM CDT...

AT 225 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NEBRASKA CITY...OR 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF TARKIO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN...SOME STREET
FLOODING MAY OCCUR.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NEBRASKA CITY...HAMBURG...SIDNEY...FARRAGUT...RIVERTON...THURMAN...
IMOGENE...CAMP CATRON AND WAUBONSIE STATE PARK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 2 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 502 AND 508.
 HIGHWAY 59 IN IOWA NEAR MILE MARKER 1.
 HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 39 AND 57.
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 17.

LAT...LON 4059 9539 4058 9548 4058 9568 4057 9568
      4056 9567 4056 9569 4058 9569 4058 9577
      4055 9577 4053 9593 4076 9602 4090 9541
TIME...MOT...LOC 0725Z 243DEG 34KT 4065 9588

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
236 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLARINDA                40.74N 95.04W
07/16/2015                   PAGE               IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING. TWO FEET OF WATER ON SOME
            STREETS. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

MILLER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
308 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

IAZ080-090-091-160900-
FREMONT IA-PAGE IA-MONTGOMERY IA-
308 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY...PAGE
AND EASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES UNTIL 400 AM CDT...

AT 307 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
RIVERTON...OR 22 MILES NORTHWEST OF TARKIO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLARINDA...SHENANDOAH...VILLISCA...SIDNEY...ESSEX...FARRAGUT...
RIVERTON...COIN...COLLEGE SPRINGS...YORKTOWN...IMOGENE...NORTHBORO...
HEPBURN AND PIERCE RECREATION AREA.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 59 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 4 AND 19.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4060 9562 4084 9567 4096 9495 4061 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0807Z 244DEG 32KT 4070 9562

MILLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
317 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S OFFUTT AFB          41.10N 95.92W
07/16/2015                   SARPY              NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AT HIGHWAY 75 AND PLATTEVIEW ROAD. RELAYED BY
            LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

CZAPOTOC