Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
329 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

TONIGHT

A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A POINT OF INITIATION FOR FOR A
FEW STORMS. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAIRLY STEEP AT 8-9 C/KM IN SE
NEBRASKA. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALSO SURGED INTO THE MID 60S IN AN AREA
WITH 2000 TO 3500 J/KG OF POTENTIAL ENERGY...HOWEVER SHEAR IS
STILL VERY WEAK AT 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA NEAR THAT BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT A SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT INTO THE REGION BRINGING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO OUR CWA. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE VERY POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.  PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO
2 INCHES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS NEAR THE NAEFS 99.5 CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COULD LEAD TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. A
FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND AMPLE MOISTURE IN REGION. 850 WINDS WILL
ALSO INTENSIFY TO AROUND 50KTS IN OUR SOUTH. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
ANY STORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SURFACE LOW/UPPER TROUGH THAT IS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 12Z
THURSDAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP
MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSOURI RIVER AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE
MAY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP CHANCES IN EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH DEFORMATION
BAND SHOWERS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT TRAILING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW WILL STILL BE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON...
WITH VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NOTED. THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY
LIGHT UP BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THROUGH SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAT WILL LINGER
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL LIKELY FILL IN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THROUGH EVENING...THEN ENDING ALTOGETHER BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.

WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO AFFECT
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASES
ONCE AGAIN. WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY SKIES ON SATURDAY...TEMPS
SHOULD AGAIN BE COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THERE WILL JUST ABOUT A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INITIALLY BECOMES MORE
ZONAL THROUGH TIME. A WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION APPEARS
TO STALL AT LEAST EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT MAY GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH OR DISSIPATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL REACHING THE MID 80S BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL LOWER AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA...THOUGH HAVE ONLY GONE TO MVFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY AT KOFK. ALSO LIMITED THUNDER MENTION TO KOFK
FOR NOW...AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THERE THAN KOMA/KLNK. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

HAVE COORDINATED WITH WPC...NESDIS...AND NEIGHBORING WFOS REGARDING
RAIN POTENTIAL...AND BELIEVE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL FALL NORTH
OF CURRENT WPC FORECAST AXIS...CLOSER TO THE 850MB FRONT.  THIS
WOULD PLACE THE HIGHER /2+ INCH/ TOTALS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
OLU-DNS...WITH 0.5-1 INCH ELSEWHERE IN EASTERN NEB...AND LESS THAN 1
INCH ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN IOWA. NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 2.0-2.5 IN/3 HOURS...AND
THINK THESE AMOUNTS ARE CLOSER TO EVENT TOTALS THAN TO 3-HOUR
TOTALS. MUCH OF THAT AREA STILL HAS LONGER-TERM RAIN DEFICITS AND
CAN ABSORB SOME MOISTURE...HAVING BEEN MISSED BY MANY OF THE
HEAVIEST RECENT RAINS. THINK OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS
LIMITED...AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
POTENTIAL IN HWO FOR ISOLATED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING IN PRONE
AREAS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GROSS/DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MAYES
HYDROLOGY...MAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
510 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-111215-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
510 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. AT THIS POINT IT
APPEARS THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT IN PRONE AREAS...AS WELL AS FLOODING ALONG
RIVERS AND STREAMS. IN ADDITION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW
STORMS MAY APPROACH OR BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WITH POSSIBLE
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA
444 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

IAZ079-090-NEZ067-068-102230-
FREMONT IA-MILLS IA-CASS NE-OTOE NE-
444 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN MILLS...NORTHWESTERN
FREMONT...SOUTHEASTERN CASS AND NORTH CENTRAL OTOE COUNTIES UNTIL
530 PM CDT...

AT 444 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
UNION...OR 28 MILES SOUTH OF OMAHA...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MURRAY...UNION...NEHAWKA...TABOR AND THURMAN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 HIGHWAY 75 IN NEBRASKA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 57 AND 59.
 INTERSTATE 29 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 15 AND 29.

LAT...LON 4070 9567 4077 9601 4098 9600 4097 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 275DEG 11KT 4086 9590

MILLER

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