Red Flag Warning 8, NWS Omaha, NE

Harrison County, IA, Mills County, IA, Monona County, IA, Pottawattamie County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Cass County, NE, Cedar County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Gage County, NE, Jefferson County, NE, Johnson County, NE, Knox County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Madison County, NE, Otoe County, NE, Pawnee County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE

684 
WWUS83 KOAX 040821
RFWOAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
321 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015

...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...

.TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO AROUND 15 TO 20
PERCENT. COMBINED WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DRY FUELS...
EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>090-092-041630-
/O.CON.KOAX.FW.W.0008.150404T1700Z-150405T0100Z/
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-
ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-
COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-
LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-PAWNEE-
321 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA.

* AFFECTED AREA...ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
  IOWA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 16 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
  EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR...WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR OUT OF CONTROL
  BURNS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

KERN/MAYES

583 
WWUS83 KOAX 041601
RFWOAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1101 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>090-092-050015-
/O.CON.KOAX.FW.W.0008.150404T1700Z-150405T0100Z/
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-
ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-
COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-
LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-PAWNEE-
1101 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN IOWA...

* AFFECTED AREA...ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
  IOWA.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 16 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR 
  EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR...WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR OUT OF 
  CONTROL BURNS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR.

&&

$$

113 
WWUS83 KOAX 050058
RFWOAX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
758 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015


IAZ043-055-056-069-079-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>090-092-050200-
/O.EXP.KOAX.FW.W.0008.000000T0000Z-150405T0100Z/
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-
ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-
COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-
LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-PAWNEE-
758 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN IOWA...

AS WE HEAD TOWARD SUNSET...TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BEGIN
TO FALL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE...ALLOWING EXTREME
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE. THUS THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1257 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

BRIEF SHOT OF COOL WEATHER TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MILDER
TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM WESTERN WY THROUGH UT TOWARD SOUTHERN
CA...AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY DRIVING 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 120M ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  110-KT UPPER-
LEVEL JET STREAK WAS NOTED FROM NORTHERN AZ ACROSS NM/CO INTO
KS...AS WELL AS FROM SOUTHERN MN TOWARD HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS TOWARD
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  850MB LOW WAS CENTERED IN NORTHERN
ONT...WITH SECONDARY LOW IN NORTHEAST NM. LEADING BOUNDARY
CONNECTING THE TWO EXTENDED ACROS THE OH RIVER VALLEY TOWARD
MO/OK...BUT REINFORCING COLD AIR WAS NOTED IN THE DAKOTAS/MN AND
ADVECTING ONTO THE PLAINS.  SURFACE LOW AT 07Z WAS CENTERED IN
CENTRAL OK...WITH SURFACE RIDGE IN WESTERN WY...AND WITH TIGHTEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS KS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND FIRE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.  BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AT 07Z EXTENDED FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL TOWARD EAST CENTRAL NEB...WITH PRECIPITATION IN EASTERN NEB
IN THE FORM OF RAIN.  FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING...AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY 18Z.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE AS A SHOT OF SUB-0C 850MB TEMPERATURES SWEEPS OUT OF
THE DAKOTAS TOWARD THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY.  SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH DEEP
MIXING INTO A VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIRMASS THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
FUELS REMAINING DRY DESPITE RECENT RAIN...GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS...AND RH FALLING TO THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 AS TEMPS RISE INTO
THE UPPER 60S IN MOST PLACES AND DEWPOINTS MIX INTO THE 20S TO UPPER
TEENS...INGREDIENTS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE TO CAUSE RED FLAG TYPE
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MOST OF
THE CWA...OMITTING PARTS OF WESTERN IOWA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA WHERE PROGGED RH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND WINDS ARE A BIT
WEAKER.

EVEN MILDER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE LIKELY ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN OR NEAR THE CWA THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY...WITH CWA MOST LIKELY NEAR THE BOUNDARY OR ON THE
COOL SIDE AS THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO ANCHOR OVER KS/MO.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVES
TRAVERSING THE PLAINS DURING SEVERAL PERIODS...MODELS PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION IN JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED.  HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION /SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS/ ON MONDAY AS WARM SECTOR POTENTIALLY NUDGES AS FAR
NORTH AS IT MAY REACH DURING THE PERIOD...THEN MORE TOWARD PLAIN
RAIN AS COOLER AND MORE STABLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FEEDS THE CWA
LATER IN THE WEEK.  HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION DURING ANY
GIVEN PERIOD...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT SC DECK WILL
SHIFT SWD THROUGH THE AFTN AT KOMA/KLNK WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT...AND THEN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SAT.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
     065>068-078-088>090-092.

IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR IAZ043-055.

&&

SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-032245-
MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-
340 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
IOWA...WEST CENTRAL IOWA...EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...AND DRY FUELS ON SATURDAY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAYES