Small Craft Advisory 41, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
908 AM PDT THU MAY 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF SAN FRANCISCO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 9:08 AM PDT THURSDAY...LOCAL RADAR IS SHOWING
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THAT ARE SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WEST OF
THE MONTEREY/SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY LINE DURING THE PAST HOUR.
EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LARGE...UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
IS POSSIBLE...BUT COULD TOP OUT AROUND A HALF INCH IN AREAS OF
HEAVIER SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER COASTAL MONTEREY COUNTY. THE HRRR IS
STILL INDICATING VERY SPOTTY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH SOME AREAS IN
THE EAST BAY POSSIBLY GETTING UP TO A HALF INCH. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS A FEW SPOTS WILL GET MUCH MORE THAN EXPECTED WHILE
OTHER PLACES GET LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SLOWLY DIMINISH ON FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH
RAIN MOVING INLAND OVER THE LOS ANGELES BASIN FRIDAY MORNING. OUR
AREA WILL SEE COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A LONG-WAVE
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WEST. THIS TROUGH PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WELL WITH A FEW IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH FROM
TIME TO TIME. RIGHT NOW NONE OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 4:30 AM PDT THURSDAY...CLOUDS ARE LOWERING WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. RADAR IS STARTING TO DETECT
LIGHT SHOWERS OFF THE COAST AND THESE WILL MOVE INTO THE COAST BY
MID MORNING AND INLAND LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
THIS MORNING BUT WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

VICINITY OF KSFO...MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS AFTER 16Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
5-10 KT SWITCHING TO THE WEST AFTER 20Z. CLOUDS DECREASING AFTER 02Z.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...MVFR CIGS. SHOWERS AFTER 15Z. CLOUDS
DECREASING AFTER 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 08:21 AM PDT THURSDAY...A 1010 MB LOW OFF THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD BRINGING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TDAY...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: SIMS
AVIATION: W PI
MARINE: LARRY

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