Small Craft Advisory 19, NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
1018 PM PDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD INTO MONDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY USHERING IN A NOTED COOLING TREND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S TO MID 70S WELL INLAND ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HILLS. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 2:40 PM PDT SUNDAY...ITS ANOTHER SUNNY AND
MILD TO WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAY AREA WITH INLAND CITIES NOW
INTO THE LOW 80S WITH PLENTY OF 60S ALONG THE COAST AND 70S AROUND
THE BAY. NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS STILL AROUND 6 MB DOWN THE COAST
AND KEEPING THE OCEAN FREE OF STRATUS FOR THE MOST PART. THERE MAY
BE SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE SAN MATEO COAST AND AROUND MONTEREY
BAY BY MORNING BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT.

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE WEATHER FOR MONDAY BUT IF ANYTHING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER BY AFTERNOON AS
ONSHORE FLOW GETS MORE FIRMLY RE-ESTABLISHED AND 850 MB TEMPS
START TO COOL SLIGHTLY.

A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BY TUESDAY WITH A DRY COOL FRONT AND NOTED AIRMASS COOLING ACROSS
THE BAY AREA AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY MAINLY IN
THE 60S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 70S WITH BRISK WINDS OFF THE OCEAN
AND IN THE HILLS.

SEASONABLY COOL AND SOMEWHAT BLUSTERY WINDS WILL PERSIST ON WEDS
WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AND A
COOL UPPER TROUGH ALOFT. IT'LL BE A FITTING START TO THE MONTH AS
APRIL IS OFTEN A WINDY TIME OF YEAR AROUND HERE AS COLD UPPER
TROUGHS PASS OVER THE REGION.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE TEMPERATURE TREND SHOULD REVERSE WITH
THE FLOW TURNING INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. INITIALLY THE AIRMASS ALOFT WILL BE
COOL SO NO DRAMATIC WARMING IS EXPECTED BUT SKIES SHOULD BE
CRYSTAL CLEAR WITH NO MARINE LAYER OF NOTE.

MORE NOTED WARMING SHOULD THEN BE FELT BY FRIDAY AS THE AIRMASS
ALOFT BEGINS TO WARM UNDER RIDING WITH A THERMAL TROUGH ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGHS THAT PASS THROUGH FAR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS
WEEK...ALTHOUGH LACKING LITTLE OR NO PRECIP MAY ACTUALLY SIGNAL
THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE OF NOTE AS THE PERSISTENT WEST
COAST RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD.

THE PATTERN LOOKS TO STAY DRY NEXT SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. BY NEXT SUNDAY A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
WITH INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR SOME RAIN CHANCES PERHAPS BY NEXT
SUNDAY OR SO. LONG RANGE MODELS ALL MORE OR LESS THEN DRIVE A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE DOWN THE COAST BY AROUND APRIL 6-8TH. FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE PERHAPS LAST WINTER A MORE TYPICAL GULF OF ALASKA
SYSTEM MAY BE IN THE CARDS. ITS STILL OVER A WEEK AWAY SO PLENTY
OF ROOM FOR ERROR HERE. PNA TELECONNECTION GOING NEGATIVE WITH MJO
OUT INTO PHASE 3 ALONG WITH WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT FROM GEM/GFS
AND ECMWF PUTS CONFIDENCE AT LEAST IN THE MEDIUM CATEGORY THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 10:18 PM PDT SUNDAY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD AND PATCHY LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE
COAST AND LOCALLY THROUGH COASTAL GAPS AND VALLEYS RESULTING IN
LOW VSBYS AND CIGS.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MODERATE
WEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KT WITH HIGH GUSTS POSSIBLE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

SFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE WEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH HIGH GUSTS POSSIBLE
EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IFR CIGS EXPECTED
TO RETURN AFTER 10Z. CIGS WILL LOWER TO LIFR TO VLIFR AFTER
13Z. CLEARING EXPECTED AROUND 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 10:11 PM PDT SUNDAY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAINTAINS A
TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 0-10 NM
             SCA...PT ARENA TO PT REYES 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT REYES TO PIGEON PT 10-60 NM
             SCA...PIGEON PT TO PT PINOS 10-60 NM
             SCA...PT PINOS TO PT PIEDRAS BLANCAS 10-60 NM

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW
AVIATION/MARINE: CW

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