Wind Advisory 2, NWS Missoula, MT

763 
WWUS75 KMSO 070224
NPWMSO

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
724 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2015

MTZ005-070330-
/O.CAN.KMSO.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150207T0300Z/
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS-
724 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2015

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
424 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2015

...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL UP TO 7000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY...

.DISCUSSION...

A great deal of subtropical warmth and moisture will be story for
the Northern Rockies through Saturday. The Clearwater Mountains of
Idaho, Cabinet Mountains of northwest Montana, and the Glacier
Park Region appear to have the best chance of rainfall in the
1.0-2.5 inch range during this time. For elevations above 7000
feet, precipitation will be mainly heavy, wet snow. A combination
of some snow and mostly rain will occur below 7000 feet. Rainfall
on existing snowpack will heighten runoff into small streams,
elevating flow levels at times. The continuous stream of rainfall
on already saturated soil will cause some roadside earthen
embankments to slide or shed rocks at times. Standing water atop
existing low elevation valley snowpack will cause water to back-up
onto properties and threaten to inundate some structure
foundations, particularly in the northern Flathead Valley. Aside
from the rainfall, temperatures will be 10-20 degrees above the
seasonal average at times across the region.

Precipitation will begin to wind down on Sunday morning, however
the reprieve will be short as models bring another wave of
moisture into the region ahead of one last Pacific storm system.
Despite another round of windy and wet weather (mountain snow and
valley rain) is expected Sunday night through Monday night, the
bigger story will be the showers models depict Tuesday afternoon
in the post frontal environment. However, details are still hard
to decipher this far out so will continue to monitor future model
runs for more confidence.

Ironically, there is greater confidence in the forecast for
Wednesday and beyond, with all models and confidence tools
showing the presence of an uncharacteristically strong high
pressure system over the Northern Rockies. We spent a good bit of
time seeking out analogous patterns from the past for comparison.
This upcoming scenario supports widespread valley fog each
morning, with temperatures late next week reaching values some 10
to perhaps 20 degrees above normal for locations with no snow on
the ground. Those valleys with snow are likely to see stronger
inversions with the persistent presence of fog & stratus likely
keeping temperatures from rising too much above normal. These
conditions are likely to persist through Valentine's Day weekend
with little model guidance suggesting when the next pattern
change will occur.

&&

.AVIATION...

Light rain and fog will result in occasional low ceilings and low
visibility will be present at times for KSMN, KMSO, and KGPI
during the next 24 hours. Wind gusts to 20 knots are possible for
KBTM between 06/2100 and 07/0200.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&