Alert archive / Montana / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

August 10, 2015

NWS Missoula, MT issued this special weather statement at Aug 10, 2015, 4:39 PM MDT. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 10, 2015, 4:39 PM MDT (22:39 UTC)
Expired: Aug 10, 2015, 5:30 PM MDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT

The radar

The Pendleton radar (KPDT), 200 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Spokane, WA (KOTX), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 263 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2280 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 56 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 170 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 10, 2:28 PM MDT, 2 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 10, 2:28 PM MDT, 2 hours 11 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
228 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms have already begun to
develop this afternoon across the Bitterroot Mountains of western
Montana, and the Clearwater Mountains in central Idaho. These
storms are currently moving fairly fast, and with little
lightning. Further development is expected this afternoon
throughout western Montana and central Idaho. The thunderstorms
will also gain strength and will be producing frequent lightning
and be able to produce gusty and erratic winds up to 50 mph. Even
if you are not directly under one of the cells, you can still
expect gusty outflow winds approaching 40 to 50 mph, especially in
the Bitterroot and Missoula Valleys. Thunderstorms will gradually
decrease this evening and overnight.

Due to the dry conditions and the expected lightning and gusty
winds, a red flag warning has been issued due to the potential for
increased fire danger.

The rest of the week looks quite HOT. Temperatures will be rising
tomorrow and Wednesday into the upper 90s in western Montana and
into the low 100s in the lower valleys of central Idaho. A couple
instances where the highs could be held down is in cloud cover
and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. If your location is impacted
by any of the above, you potentially couldn't reach those highs.
Thunderstorms will be hit and miss.

Thunderstorms will once again develop by late morning on
Thursday, encompassing central Idaho first and then spreading into
western Montana through the evening hours. Storms could produce
gusty winds, as well as abundant lightning. Given the outdoor
activities taking place this week into this weekend, those
intending to be outdoors should have a plan in the case that gusty
winds or lightning end up impacting outdoor events. With increased
moisture content available in the atmosphere, occasional bursts
of heavy rain are also a concern, so please plan accordingly.

The threat for inclement weather continues on Friday with the
passage of a cold front, which will help to cool temperatures off
a bit, but in return, cause a very windy day across the Northern
Rockies. Southwest Montana, west central Montana, and locations
hugging the Continental Divide will see the strongest winds occur,
though most everywhere will experience a rather windy day. This
could cause further concerns for the wildfire community, so will
be keeping a close eye on this.

With a cooler-than-average weekend ahead, conditions will stay
relatively unsettled but with gradual improvement as the weekend
passes. By next week, forecast models diverge on many details and
the pattern remains unclear at this time.

&&

.AVIATION....Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
impact air terminals KMSO, KGPI, and KSMN this afternoon.
Development has already started, and could impact KMSO and KSMN by
10/2200Z. KGPI could some activity by 11/0000Z this evening. These
thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty and erratic
winds, along with frequent lightning. Activity is expected to
diminish by 11/0300Z tonight for all terminals.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening Bitterroot.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 11 PM MDT this evening East Lolo...
     Flathead/Glacier Park...Kootenai...Salish and Kootenai
     Reservation...West Lolo.

ID...RED FLAG WARNING until 8 PM PDT this evening Clearwater/Nez
     perce...Palouse/Hells Canyon.

&&

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 10, 3:35 PM MDT, 1 hour 4 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
335 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

IDZ009-010-102230-
EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY ID-WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY ID-
335 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL LEMHI AND SOUTHERN
RAVALLI COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

AT 335 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SALMON...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SALMON...NORTH FORK...GIBBONSVILLE AND CARMEN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4507 11405 4558 11411 4565 11402 4569 11402
      4571 11399 4569 11394 4562 11390 4560 11381
      4552 11384 4552 11377 4548 11376 4545 11378
      4543 11376 4541 11377 4539 11373 4533 11374
      4532 11372 4505 11379
TIME...MOT...LOC 2135Z 185DEG 34KT 4514 11391

Special weather statement, Aug 10, 4:33 PM MDT, 6 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
433 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

IDZ006-009-010-MTZ005-006-102330-
EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY ID-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-
WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY ID-MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS MT-
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-
433 PM MDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL IDAHO...NORTHERN
LEMHI...SOUTHWESTERN GRANITE AND CENTRAL RAVALLI COUNTIES UNTIL 530
PM MDT/430 PM PDT/...

AT 432 PM MDT /332 PM PDT/...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONNER...OR 38 MILES SOUTH
OF HAMILTON...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAMILTON...DARBY...CONNER...SKALKAHO PASS...SULA...CHARLOS HEIGHTS...
COMO AND GRANTSDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4560 11399 4565 11449 4634 11440 4626 11372
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 192DEG 31KT 4570 11435

Special weather statement, Aug 10, 4:39 PM MDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
339 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2015

IDZ006-008-102330-
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-
LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION ID-
339 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM PDT...

AT 337 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTH OF RIGGINS...OR 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCCALL...MOVING
NORTH AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RIGGINS...RIGGINS HOT SPRING...LUCILE AND POLLOCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

LAT...LON 4557 11650 4560 11646 4563 11647 4559 11589
      4511 11616 4511 11631 4513 11628 4515 11628
      4515 11630 4519 11630 4527 11634 4527 11655
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 183DEG 34KT 4523 11635

The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 10, 11:16 AM MDT	Red Flag Warning	MSO	Flathead, Glacier, Granite, Lake, Lewis and Clark, Lincoln and 5 more	12 hr
Aug 10, 4:33 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Ravalli	57 min
Aug 10, 5:00 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Granite, Ravalli	60 min
Aug 10, 5:22 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO		38 min
Aug 10, 5:22 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Mineral, Missoula, Ravalli	53 min
Aug 10, 5:44 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Lincoln	61 min
Aug 10, 5:53 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Granite	52 min
Aug 10, 3:35 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	MSO	Lemhi	55 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Montana, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.