Special Weather Statement, NWS Missoula, MT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
331 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

...Big change late Sunday into Monday to cool & showery...

.DISCUSSION...

Moisture sliding into the region ahead of a West Coast trough
will bring showers and thunderstorms to central Idaho and
southwest/west-central Montana. The main threat is flash flooding
over flood-prone areas such as burn scars, while small hail is
also possible. Storms should subside by this evening.

Friday looks quieter for much of the area as the flow aloft
becomes more zonal, though a few showers and thunderstorms can't
be ruled out in the afternoon over southwest Montana.

By Saturday, a broad trough is expected to develop over the West
Coast, leading to southwesterly flow over the Northern Rockies
with increased afternoon winds and a gradually increasing threat
of showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Temperatures will
begin to cool below normal as several weak fronts push through in
advance of the trough.

The real impacts arrive Sunday night into Monday as the trough
deepens and slides into the region. Temperatures will cool
drastically (15-25 degrees below normal), widespread showers will
develop, and snow levels may reach 8,000' around Glacier NP. Those
with outdoor plans should be prepared for raw conditions in the
backcountry, with conditions much different than would be expected
for the end of July.

Drier conditions with near normal temperatures and breezy
afternoon winds will return by midweek as we transition into a
benign westerly flow pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through north
central Idaho and west central/southwest Montana this afternoon.
Gusty winds and heavy rain are the main concerns with these
storms. High resolution model guidance show showers to pass off to
the east around 24/0200z with only an isolated shower or two
thereafter. Skies will become mostly clear overnight before
cumulus build-ups and thunderstorms return for Friday afternoon.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
112 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

MTZ004>006-043-232000-
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS MT-POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION MT-
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION MT-BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS MT-
112 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSOULA COUNTY
UNTIL 200 PM MDT...

AT 110 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WYE...OR NEAR MISSOULA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MISSOULA...LOLO...WYE...EAST MISSOULA...BONNER-WEST RIVERSIDE...
EVARO...POTOMAC...TURAH AND TWIN CREEKS.

LAT...LON 4678 11415 4697 11421 4718 11369 4684 11349
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 242DEG 20KT 4693 11405

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1249 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2015

IDZ006>008-232030-
OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION ID-SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS ID-
LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION ID-
1249 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL IDAHO COUNTY UNTIL
130 PM PDT...

AT 1248 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER GRANGEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANGEVILLE AND FENN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. MUD AND ROCK SLIDES OVER ROADWAYS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO EXTREME RUNOFF. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4580 11619 4583 11637 4610 11626 4596 11596
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 219DEG 29KT 4593 11617

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
345 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

MTZ007-232230-
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION MT-
345 PM MDT THU JUL 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DEER LODGE AND
CENTRAL SILVER BOW COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

AT 345 PM MDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES WEST OF BUTTE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM ALONG
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUTTE...SILVER BOW...WALKERVILLE...BUTTE-SILVER BOW (BALANCE)...
JANNEY...NISSLER...RAMSAY AND NEWCOMB.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 4585 11243 4583 11285 4600 11290 4609 11247
      4607 11247 4605 11248 4602 11244 4593 11244
      4593 11242 4589 11240
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 259DEG 26KT 4593 11278