Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
336 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
NORTH CAROLINA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS HAVE BECOME
STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO MOSTLY LESS THAN 40 MPH.
THE STORMS HAVE BEEN OF THE PULSE VARIETY AND ARE NOT LASTING VERY
LONG. REPORTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS THE LAST 3 HOURS HAVE BEEN LESS
THAN ONE INCH BUT SOME PLACES MAY HAVE RECEIVED MORE. AREA RADARS
SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN GA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
TN... NORTHERN MIDDLE TN...NE KENTUCKY AND AREAS JUST EAST OF THE
NC AND EASTERN TN MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY DECREASE
WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY AND HAVE MOSTLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AFTER
DARK AS LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INTERACT AND FIRE UP MORE
STORMS. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
INTO AR TONIGHT AND THEN TO NEAR THE MO BORDER FRIDAY STILL STAYING
WEST OF THE MS. THE NAM WEAKENS THE CIRCULATION AND SHRINKS IT SIZE
WHILE THE GFS KEEPS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION SPIRALING INTO
IT. THIS GIVES THE REGION MUCH HIGHER POPS FRIDAY. THINK THE NAM IS
MORE REPRESENTATIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES SIMILAR FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM
IS STILL TOO FAR AWAY TO BRING A HIGH CHANCE OF STORMS UNTIL AFTER
TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST STARTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF BILL EXPECTED
TO MOVE MORE TO THE EAST AND HELP FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE. AS IT
MOVES MORE EAST, THE CENTER OF REMAINING ENERGY WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH WESTERN TENNESSEE AND THEN THROUGH KENTUCKY. THAT WILL
LEAVE OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN PARTS, IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO COME OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE A LOW END CHANCE FOR
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LIKELIHOOD
OF A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS DUE TO
INCREASED SHEAR WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMNANTS.

RIDGING THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90'S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. NEARLY DAILY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL EXIST, BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             73  92  74  91 /  20  40  30  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  90  70  88 /  30  40  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN                       72  90  71  86 /  20  40  30  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  88  66  87 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TD/ABM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
358 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-190800-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
358 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE USUAL FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURING THE PERIOD
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
221 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

TNZ035-036-067-181900-
ROANE TN-ANDERSON TN-MORGAN TN-
221 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ROANE...ANDERSON...AND MORGAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 218 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A DEVELOPING STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERN ROANE...
WESTERN ANDERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3585 8467 3590 8470 3591 8468 3598 8471
      3602 8474 3621 8433 3622 8430 3618 8424
      3618 8423 3621 8423 3600 8412 3599 8416
      3599 8419 3598 8420
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 246DEG 24KT 3597 8463

TD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
411 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

TNZ041-182100-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS TN-
411 PM EDT THU JUN 18 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM EDT...

AT 409 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...AND BIG CREEK...OR 14 MILES SOUTH
OF NEWPORT. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS UP OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...EASTERN PORTIONS OF SMOKY MOUNTAINS
NATIONAL PARK...BIG CREEK...HARTFORD...MAX PATCH AND WATERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3579 8320 3589 8299 3581 8296 3579 8296
      3577 8299 3579 8303 3579 8308 3577 8311
      3577 8316 3575 8316 3574 8318
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 250DEG 3KT 3577 8311

AMP.23