Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
306 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND VALLEY IN A VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN MANY SPOTS.
THE TRIGGER FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS HEATING AND A WEAK REMNANT FRONT
DRAPED OVER THIS REGION. AS A RESULT...ANY STORMS THAT DO FIRE IN
THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO QUICKLY GO STRONG TO SEVERE.
LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
BE THE BIGGEST THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BEFORE IT DISSIPATES
LATE THIS EVENING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT. INSTABILITY DROPS OFF
QUICKLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40...SO AM EXPECTING A QUIET AND DRY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

THEREAFTER...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT FORMING
IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. WITH THE UPPER-RIDGE STILL CONTROLLING THINGS
ON THURSDAY...AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 90S OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD FEATURES AN INCREASE IN PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION AREA WIDE AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO
BUILD AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING EASTERN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH.
SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AS A
WEAK SHORT WAVE ACTS ON A MOIST AND BUOYANT LOW LEVEL AIR MASS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION TO THE PATTERN OCCURS WITH A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. WITH SUCH A WELL DEVELOPED FRONTAL SYSTEM
DRIVING SOUTHEAST INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR...CONVECTION SHOULD
BE RATHER STRONG WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY DEPENDING ON ACTUAL FRONTAL TIMING. MUCH
OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD SHIFT EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE DEEP EASTERN LAKES UPPER
TROUGH. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILL IN ON PREVAILING NORTHWEST
FLOW SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON BRINGING ANOTHER
WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SO POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
INCREASED FROM MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             74  97  75  89 /  20  20  30  60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  95  73  88 /  10  10  20  60
OAK RIDGE, TN                       70  96  73  88 /  10  10  30  60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              66  92  68  86 /  10  10  20  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

AMP/TH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1014 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-251415-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
1014 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE STAY HYDRATED AND LIMIT TIME
SPENT OUTDOORS DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING!

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA. THESE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO
REACH SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA LATE THURSDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

HIGHS TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THE 80S TO
MID 90S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS...AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND VERY
LITTLE CHANCES OF RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AS
HIGH AS 95 TO 100 DEGREES BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO TRY TO DO THOSE
OUTDOOR JOBS IN THE MORNING OR LATE EVENING IF POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN POSSIBLY NEEDED AREAWIDE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
219 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

NCZ060-061-241915-
CHEROKEE NC-CLAY NC-
219 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEROKEE...AND CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL
315 PM EDT...

AT 219 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ANDREWS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDREWS...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...NANTAHALA LAKE...TUSQUITEE...
MARBLE...BRASSTOWN AND SHOOTING CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3506 8405 3521 8397 3524 8387 3519 8371
      3517 8373 3515 8373 3516 8365 3514 8364
      3514 8366 3512 8364 3513 8362 3511 8362
      3509 8359 3504 8356 3504 8354 3500 8352
      3500 8351 3499 8352 3499 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 1819Z 294DEG 17KT 3512 8386

DH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
228 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

TNZ081-082-099-241915-
BLEDSOE TN-HAMILTON TN-SEQUATCHIE TN-
228 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLEDSOE...HAMILTON...AND SEQUATCHIE
COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT/215 PM CDT/...

AT 227 PM EDT /127 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF DUNLAP...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DUNLAP...SODDY-DAISY...PALIO...MOWBRAY MOUNTAIN...BRAYTON...CAGLE...
SALE CREEK...FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN...OLD CUMBERLAND AND NORTH CHICKAMAUGA
CREEK GORGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3538 8549 3541 8549 3541 8551 3542 8551
      3543 8554 3547 8554 3555 8549 3555 8546
      3557 8542 3549 8513 3547 8512 3546 8514
      3545 8511 3543 8510 3544 8506 3542 8504
      3521 8516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 294DEG 17KT 3547 8544

DH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
252 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

TNZ083>085-100-241930-
RHEA TN-MEIGS TN-BRADLEY TN-MCMINN TN-
252 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RHEA...MEIGS...BRADLEY...AND MCMINN
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 251 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
DAYTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATHENS...DAYTON...DECATUR...CHARLESTON...GRAYSVILLE...CALHOUN...
RICEVILLE...BIG SPRING...OLD WASHINGTON...HILLSVIEW AND EVENSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3540 8503 3541 8502 3544 8506 3543 8508
      3544 8509 3559 8500 3547 8455 3525 8468
      3524 8471
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 294DEG 17KT 3548 8497

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
319 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             N DUNLAP                35.37N 85.39W
06/24/2015  E0.50 INCH       SEQUATCHIE         TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
327 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NE DUNLAP             35.42N 85.32W
06/24/2015                   SEQUATCHIE         TN   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ALONG HWY 127 NEAR THE
            SEQUATCHIE / BLEDSOE COUNTY LINE.

&&