Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
340 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE CIRCULATION FROM THE
REMNANTS OF BILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MS AND
LOWER TN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN INTO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AND ONLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG MAINLY OVER CENTRAL EAST TN AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FLUCTUATED WIDELY WITH THE
STORMS. OUTSIDE OF STORMS HIGHS HAVE REACHED THE LOWER TO MID 80S
NORTH AND UPPER 80S AND A FEW LOWER 90S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION SEEMS TO HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED NORTH AND WEST
AND DECREASED OVER THE FORECAST AREA THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT
ACTIVITY TO POSSIBLY INCREASE AGIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT DECREASE
WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS THEN SHOW ACTIVITY
INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY AROUND 9-12Z AS
LEFTOVER CIRCULATION OF BILL MOVES INTO CENTRAL KY INTO MIDDLE TN.
WILL DECREASE PRECIPITATION TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATER TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE POPS AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE. WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. ALSO MOST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. AS CIRCULATION FROM BILL MOVES
FASTER TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DECREASE POPS FROM SW TO NE.
SUNDAY LOOKS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER AS CIRCULATION SHIFTS NE AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
WENT A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH AND
CHANCE NORTH. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CREEP BACK UP TO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S NORTH AND THE MID TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
REACH FROM AROUND ONE TO TWO INCHES SATURDAY WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LONG TERM BEGINS WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL
CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. THEN BEGINS A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN THAT INVOLVES ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, AND HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA. MODERATE RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AND TRAPS HOT TEMPS AND RELATIVELY HUMID AIR OVER THE AREA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 90'S ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HOTTEST DAY TO COME ON WEDNESDAY WITH
FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA TO RANGE FROM 90 TO NEAR TRIPLE
DIGITS. THE RELATIVELY HUMID AIR WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
RISE TO ALMOST TRIPLE DIGITS MOST DAYS THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK. SOME
PLACES WILL GET LUCKY TO SEE A ROGUE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POP UP
TO HELP THEM COOL OFF, BUT MOST WILL BE LEFT HOT AND DRY.

HOPEFULLY SOME RELIEF WILL BE IN STORE AT THE VERY END OF THE 7-DAY
FORECAST AS A FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE VICINITY AND
HOPEFULLY BRING IN INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SINCE THIS IS STILL WELL OFF IN THE FORECAST, THE MODELS HAVE NOT
COME INTO GREAT AGREEMENT WITH LOCATION OF FRONT AND BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FINGERS CROSSED FOR COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER
TO MOVE IN SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             73  90  73  95 /  40  60  20  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  71  87  71  93 /  30  70  50  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  87  71  93 /  40  70  60  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  86  67  89 /  30  70  60  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TD/ABM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
347 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-202000-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
347 PM EDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TROUGH THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING WIND
GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH...AS WELL AS PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SATURDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREATS BEING STRONG
WINDS...MODERATE HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

TD

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