Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT)...SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH IN STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME
HEATING. SPOTTY LINGERING SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED PARTIAL CLEARING. PATCHY DENSE FOG
EXPECTED LATE IN THE NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.

A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE INCOMING
BROAD AND UPPER TROUGH. BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ALONG THE SPINE
OF THE APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE
FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. FOR OUR AREA...THE FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ALSO...THE BROAD WEAK UPPER
TROUGH IS FINALLY CENTERED OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF
THIS CLOSED OFF LOW LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON TOP OF US. THIS
POSITIONING...ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR EAST...SHOULD HELP
TO KEEP THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF TO OUR EAST AS
WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BROAD TROUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL
WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. AN INVERTED LOW
LEVEL TROUGH AND 850 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPLY SOME LIFT IN
NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL...SO WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS NORTH FOR
WEDNESDAY. LESS MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD MEAN LOWER PRECIP CHANCES
CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND BY THURSDAY...THE DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST AS THE 850-700 MB FLOW TURNS N-NW. THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND WILL HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE
CAROLINAS...IT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT...AND EAST TN WILL
SEE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NW
FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PROBLEM IS
THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OR
INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
DETAILS. AS A RESULT...THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WILL BE
BROAD BRUSHED WITH CHANCE POPS THAT MAINLY FOCUS ON A DIURNAL TREND
OF HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             64  81  63  82 /  40  40  20  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  79  62  79 /  60  40  20  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       62  79  62  79 /  50  40  20  50
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              60  76  60  76 /  60  40  30  60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SR/DGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
307 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-021915-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
307 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...

ONGOING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME HEATING.
UNTIL THEN...A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE BIGGEST THREATS APPEAR TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND TRAINING OF STORM
CELLS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM NEAR THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND HAVE LITTLE MOVEMENT THIS WEEK. A RISK
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE
MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PROLONGED RAINFALL FROM MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

TNZ044-011945-
WASHINGTON TN-
300 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
EDT...

AT 300 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JONESBOROUGH...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF ERWIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JOHNSON CITY...JONESBOROUGH...MIDWAY...GRAY...OAK GROVE...LEESBURG...
TELFORD AND AVONDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3615 8253 3619 8261 3643 8250 3636 8230
      3635 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 213DEG 16KT 3622 8254

DGS