Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)...A WEAK JET STREAK IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER AREA. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AROUND 1000
J/KG. MODELS SHOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION CONTINUING OVER
THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN PWS AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE AREA...TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

BESIDES THE HEAVY RAIN...THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH... SMALL
HAIL...HEAVY DOWNPOURS/LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES
DOWN FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SOMEWHAT OF A STAGNANT
PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM DUE TO A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCES FOR CONVECTION EACH DAY.

A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING BUT STORM INTENSITY SHOULD QUICKLY FADE WITH THE
SETTING SUN. A SATURATED MOISTURE PROFILE WITH HIGH PWS COULD RESULT
IN SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
BEGINNING TO MAKE AN EXIT MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT MOVING ANYWHERE TOO
FAST. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE APPALACHIAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. POSITIONING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS HARD TO PIN DOWN DUE TO IT'S WEAK AND BROAD NATURE.
EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR PRECIP
CHANCES. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP THE TROUGH CENTERED FURTHER SOUTH
WHICH GIVES US HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE BEING
PULLED UP INTO OUR AREA. THE ECMWF SOLUTION STILL GIVES US PRECIP
CHANCES BUT NOT AS HIGH BECAUSE IT KEEPS THE TROUGH CENTERED FURTHER
NORTH...OVER OUR AREA. THIS NORTHERN TROUGH PLACEMENT KEEPS THE
DEEPER MOISTER TO OUR EAST. OVERALL...TROUGH RESIDES SOMEWHERE
ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...WHEN IT FINALLY DRIFTS
OUT OF THE AREA. SO TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. COVERAGE WILL DEPEND ON TROUGH
LOCATION. STORMS LOOK TO BE THE GENERAL PULSE TYPE DURING THIS
PERIOD DUE TO LACK OF SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK AND BROAD TROUGH.

MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ECMWF TRIES TO BRING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN FROM THE WEST WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IN ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM OUT OF THE NORTH. WON'T GO
INTO TOO MUCH DETAIL AT THIS TIME SINCE IT'S AT THE END OF THE LONG
TERM AND MODELS AREN'T AGREEING YET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             67  82  65  80 /  70  70  40  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  81  63  79 /  60  70  50  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       67  81  63  79 /  60  70  50  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              62  83  62  77 /  50  70  60  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
248 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-011900-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
248 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT ENHANCING THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED. STRONG GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 60 MPH...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAINS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

TRAINING OF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE CONCERN OF LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY...

ANOTHER ROUND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS
NEAR THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK. A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXIST WITH THIS
ACTIVITY DUE TO THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION. SOME MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE PROLONGED RAINFALL FROM MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
337 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW KINGSTON          35.88N 84.54W
05/31/2015                   ROANE              TN   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN.

&&

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