Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
258 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR PRE-FRONTAL SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEST COVERAGE AND CHANCES FOR
STRONGER STORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
VALLEY AND INTO SWNC...WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MORE UNSTABLE. THE BULK
OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. THEN
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE TROUGH MOVES IN OVER NIGHT BUT WITH ONLY
ISO/SCT COVERAGE EXPECTED. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING BUT CLEARING IS SLOW ON TUESDAY. DO EXPECT CLEARING TO BEGIN
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FIRST ACROSS THE PLATEAU AND THEN CONTINUE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE TN VALLEY REGION
TO START THE PERIOD...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE RESULT IN SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY
SKIES...COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THE PATTERN CHANGES ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO ONTARIO
AND DRAGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF POPS INTO THE FORECAST...BUT
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AS MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DIURNALLY-BASED ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY FORCING PICKS UP A LITTLE AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER AND WE
WILL HAVE A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH EVOLVING INTO A
CLOSED LOW IN THE NW GULF ON MONDAY. THIS MAY BRING SOME BETTER
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE AREA...SO WILL START MONDAY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             73  89  67  86 /  50  30  20  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  70  87  67  83 /  60  30  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  87  65  83 /  60  30  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              67  83  62  81 /  60  30  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SR/DGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
303 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-111915-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
303 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 /203 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH HIGH WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
301 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

TNZ082>084-099-101945-
RHEA TN-MEIGS TN-BLEDSOE TN-HAMILTON TN-
301 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RHEA...MEIGS...BLEDSOE...AND
HAMILTON COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM EDT/245 PM CDT/...

AT 301 PM EDT /201 PM CDT/...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF DAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAYTON...GRAYSVILLE...BRAYTON...OLD WASHINGTON...BIG SPRING...
EVENSVILLE...SALE CREEK AND BIRCHWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 8523 3536 8523 3551 8524 3559 8483
      3539 8484 3535 8486 3536 8488 3534 8488
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 262DEG 28KT 3544 8518

DGS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
313 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

TNZ099-100-102000-
BRADLEY TN-HAMILTON TN-
313 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BRADLEY...AND HAMILTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 313 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
HARRISON...OR NEAR CHATTANOOGA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...RIDGESIDE...HARRISON...EAST CLEVELAND...
WILDWOOD LAKE...SOUTH CLEVELAND...COLLEGEDALE...OOLTEWAH...EAST
BRAINERD...WATERVILLE...FLINT SPRINGS...GAP SPRINGS AND MCDONALD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3499 8527 3516 8526 3516 8525 3518 8470
      3509 8474 3508 8474 3499 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 272DEG 31KT 3507 8518

DGS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
339 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

TNZ085>087-102030-
SOUTHEAST MONROE TN-NORTHWEST MONROE TN-MCMINN TN-
339 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEAST MONROE...NORTHWEST
MONROE...AND MCMINN COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 339 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ETOWAH...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATHENS...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MADISONVILLE...ETOWAH...ENGLEWOOD...TELLICO PLAINS...MOUNT VERNON AND
BULLET CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3539 8462 3557 8426 3529 8414 3527 8445
      3528 8450 3527 8452 3527 8456
TIME...MOT...LOC 1939Z 250DEG 23KT 3533 8451

DGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
341 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLEVELAND               35.18N 84.87W
08/10/2015                   BRADLEY            TN   PUBLIC

            OAK TREE DOWN JUST NORTH OF CLEVELAND, TN.

&&

DH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
358 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

TNZ067-068-083>086-102045-
RHEA TN-ROANE TN-MEIGS TN-LOUDON TN-NORTHWEST MONROE TN-MCMINN TN-
358 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RHEA...ROANE...MEIGS...LOUDON...
NORTHWEST MONROE...AND MCMINN COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 357 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF DECATUR...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OAK RIDGE...ATHENS...LENOIR CITY...SWEETWATER...LOUDON...
MADISONVILLE...DECATUR...SPRING CITY...FAIRVIEW...VONORE...
GREENBACK...FRIENDSVILLE...NIOTA...PHILADELPHIA...TARIFFVILLE...
PEAKLAND...CITICO BEACH...PAINT ROCK...CLEAR WATER AND MURRAY STORE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3545 8480 3570 8488 3590 8427 3582 8418
      3578 8417 3576 8417 3575 8416 3571 8417
      3565 8413 3561 8419 3558 8413 3558 8412
      3549 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 258DEG 24KT 3557 8468

AMP.23