Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...HRRRR CORRECTLY FORETOLD OF
A LINE OF CONVECTION WHICH WOULD FORM ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE
THROUGH NORTHEAST TENNESSEE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS
FORMING IN AN AREA OF MAJOR LEAGUE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
CONVERGENCE. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS LEADING TO BACKBUILDING ACROSS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL EAST TENNESSEE...WHICH HAVE
ALREADY RECEIVED AROUND TWO TO AS MUCH AS FIVE INCHES OF RAIN
SHOULD RESULT IN SOME MORE FLOODING. THEREFORE...ISSUED FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR CONVECTION WHICH COULD CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS WELL
INTO THE NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...EXCELLENT SHEAR AND VERY HIGH CAPE
VALUES ARE ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
RADAR INDICATES THAT SOME OF THE STORMS ARE SUPERCELLS WITH
ROTATION SIGNATURES PRESENT. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH EAST TENNESSEE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SHOULD BE A
BETTER DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...STILL LOOKS LIKE A
BREAK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT TO SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH A DRIER AIR MASS REPLACING THE
WARM HUMID AIR MASS THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70
AT CHATTANOOGA. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL STAY SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
THE 80S TO NEAR 90 AT CHATTANOOGA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN
BEHIND FRONT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE 60S. FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES BEGINS TO SHIFT
BACK EAST AND NORTH. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS FRONT MOVES BACK NE
AS A WARM FRONT. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY. IF THIS FRONT
LINGERS IN THE AREA THERE COULD BE SOME MORE CONCERNS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AT MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             75  91  70  91 /  60  30  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  73  88  68  88 /  60  20  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       73  87  68  87 /  60  20  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  84  62  86 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-ROANE-SCOTT TN-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-150800-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
351 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015 /251 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A WEAKENING LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUST AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

A HEIGHTENED RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL
EXIST WITH ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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