River Flood Warning 5, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER SW VA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. MODEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF E TN AND
PORTIONS OF SW VA AN SW NC. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE WE
TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MELT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG KY BORDER AND
ACROSS SW VA. MELT ALONE HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME TROUBLE AND SITUATION
LOOKS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00. SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FRONTAL ZONE. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER
SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HINDER ICE...SLEET AND EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. USED THICKNESS
TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. USED LOCAL TOOLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS
LEANING TOWARD A LOW END SOLUTION FAVORING SLEET AND RLATIVELY
MODERATE RAIN RATES. MODELS SNOW FALL OUTPUT AND CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE UNDERDONE FOR MID DAY THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AND E
AREAS. WEAK LIFR REMAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A VERY COLD MORNING ON FRIDAY AS THE SKY CLEARS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY
SPOTS...AND UPPER TEENS TO 20 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR FRIDAY DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AT OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A MUCH WELCOME WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND EVEN
THE LOWER 60S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             34  37  21  42 /  90 100  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  32  35  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       30  33  16  38 /  90 100  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  35  12  34 /  90 100  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
     ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
     CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
     CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
     RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

SON/AMP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
110 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-051815-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
110 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ALSO THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING DUE TO PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH A SATURATED SOIL FROM
RECENT SNOW MELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH.
ACCUMULATING ICE AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VA AND THE EAST TN
MOUNTAINS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE
THE WINTER STORM WATCH...AND WARNING PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING
OR SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE VERY
HELPFUL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLOOD            WISE                    36.98N 82.58W
03/04/2015                   WISE               VA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FOUR ROADS IMPASSABLE ACROSS COUNTY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1245 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     FLOOD            LEBANON                 36.90N 82.08W
03/04/2015                   RUSSELL            VA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FIVE ROADS CLOSED FROM WATER ON ROAD

&&