High Wind Watch 1, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
346 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET WILL
MOVE ACROSS OHIO VALLEY/MID-ATLANTIC STATES PLACING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. DIRECT CIRCULATION WITH THE
JET WILL ENHANCE THE FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING OVER THE AREA AS THE
ARCTIC BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTH. ALSO...STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER JET WILL PRODUCE A VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET.
MODELS SHOW A SOUTHERLY 850MB JET OF 70-80KTS JUST WEST OF THE
AREA PRODUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE AREA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

END RESULT WILL BE INCREASING COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE PROFILE SUGGESTS
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW...THEN TRANSITION OVER THE SLEET/
FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. WARNING CRITERIA SNOW/ICE
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA WITH ADVISORY FOR THE FAR EASTERN AREAS. EVEN THOUGH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT MEET CRITERIA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...
CONCERNED THAT NEW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH CURRENT ICING WILL
CAUSE MAJOR IMPACTS...SO DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A WARNING.

STRONG 850MB JET WILL EVENTUALLY PULL WARM AIR INTO THE REGION TO
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS STRONG 850MB JET PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. CONDITIONS ARE NOT REALLY SET FOR A MOUNTAIN
WAVE EVENT...BUT STRENGTH OF JET IS CONCERNING...SO INCLUDED
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS WELL. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS INTO THE VALLEY
WILL ALSO HELP WARM THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES LIMITING ICE
ACREATION.

WILL ALLOW WIND CHILL WARNING/ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 AM AS SURFACE
RIDGING HAS PRODUCED LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...A BROAD TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD...RESULTING IN CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST SOME LIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH
DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME STOUT SOUTHERLY WINDS
/PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN/...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S IN MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO WEST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THANKS TO ANOTHER SUBTLE/WEAK
SHORTWAVE AND A SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND
DROP FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL REINFORCE SOME BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES...WITH CHILLY OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MID THE MID TEENS TO 20S. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS EACH DAY...THANKS TO
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE VERY
LIGHT AND FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             32  29  46  42 /  40  80  70  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  28  27  47  39 /  20  90  70  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       28  25  44  39 /  30  90  80  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              24  19  44  38 /   0  90  80  90

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     EAST POLK-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK.

     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-JOHNSON-SEVIER
     SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
     MONROE-UNICOI.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NW
     BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY
     FOR ANDERSON-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-JEFFERSON-
     KNOX-LOUDON-UNION.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON TO
     1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-HAMILTON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE.

VA...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RUSSELL-
     WASHINGTON-WISE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

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