Alert archive / Tennessee / Flash Flood Watches in 2015

Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Morristown, TN

October 1, 201520 counties in Tennessee; 7 counties in Virginia; Cherokee County, Clay County, North Carolina

NWS Morristown, TN issued this flash flood watch at Oct 1, 2015, 3:04 PM EDT for 20 counties in Tennessee; 7 counties in Virginia; Cherokee County, Clay County, North Carolina. It took effect at Oct 3, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 28 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 1, 2015, 3:04 PM EDT (19:04 UTC)
In effect from
Oct 3, 2015, 8:00 AM EDT
Expired
Oct 4, 2015, 12:00 PM EDT
In force
28 hr
Issued by
NWS Morristown, TN
Flood severity
None
All 29 counties

Cherokee County, NC, Clay County, NC, Blount County, TN, Bradley County, TN, Carter County, TN, Cocke County, TN, Grainger County, TN, Greene County, TN, Hamblen County, TN, Hancock County, TN, Hawkins County, TN, Jefferson County, TN, Johnson County, TN, Knox County, TN, Loudon County, TN, McMinn County, TN, Monroe County, TN, Polk County, TN, Sevier County, TN, Sullivan County, TN, Unicoi County, TN, Washington County, TN, City of Bristol, VA, City of Norton, VA, Lee County, VA, Russell County, VA, Scott County, VA, Washington County, VA, Wise County, VA

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 20 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 306 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2015-10-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Nashville Metro, TN at 12:00Z on 2015-10-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -19 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
616 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-19 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
38 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at Sep 30, 7:47 PM EDT, 19 hours 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 30, 7:47 PM EDT, 19 hours 17 minutes before
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Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 30, 3:30 PM EDT, 23 hours 34 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-011930-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
330 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015 /230 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION AND MERGER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN
AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN LIE ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...AND DOWN THROUGH SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. IF THESE
FEATURES MERGE...ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
OF FLOODING.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Morristown, TN issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 1, 7:55 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryMRXCocke, Greene3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in Tennessee, 2015Flash Flood Watches in Virginia, 2015Flash Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2015Every flash flood watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.