Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Marquette, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
132 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

LOWERED/REMOVED TS CHCS OVER THE WRN CWA LATER TNGT/MON DUE TO
EXPECTED VIGOROUS NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION FCST TO OVERSPREAD
THAT AREA TNGT...CONSISTENT WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE 50S OBSVED IN NE
MN. ALTHOUGH DPVA/SOME DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC WL IMPACT THIS AREA
AHEAD OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN WSW FLOW AND BRING CONTINUED
SHOWER CHCS...FCST MUCAPES UNDER 100 J/KG WITH THE LLVL COOLING/
DRYING WARRANT REMOVAL OF TS CHCS. ELEVATED TS POTENTIAL WL LINGER
OVER THE SE HALF OF THE CWA INTO MN CLOSER TO STALLING COLD FNT JUST
TO THE SE/REMAINING HIER H85 THETA E.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SW
POKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE PRAIRIES OF CANADA. THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS SOME SHORTWAVES
MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA. NAM...GFS AND ECMWF BRING IN
SOME STRONGER 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TONIGHT ALONG WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BOTH REMAIN THROUGH MON OVER THE AREA.

BASICALLY...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
KEPT IT DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THEN BRING IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND DRY NORTH OF HOUGHTON FOR TONIGHT AND
MOSTLY CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH DRY
WEATHER IN THE NORTH AND FAR WEST. OVERALL FOR TEMPERATURES...MADE
VERY FEW CHANGES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

SHORTWAVE THAT BRINGS FRONT ACROSS CWA INTO MONDAY WILL LEAVE WSW
FLOW ALOFT OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SFC
FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME...RUNNING FM
SOUTHERN WI INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. HOWEVER...COULD STILL SEE POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE AS DIVERGENCE FM JET STREAK OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC COMBINES WITH H85-H7 FRONT AND RIBBON OF HIGHER
RH. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST GREATEST CHANCES FOR SHRA OVER SCNTRL AND EAST
WITH MINIMAL CHANCES TOWARD KEWEENAW. SMALL ELEVATED CAPES IN THE
EVENING BUT THIS TAPERS OFF OVERNIGHT...SO DROPPED MENTION OF TSRA
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE MAIN FOCUS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN
INCREASING MID CLOUDS...GRADUALLY LOWERING BY TUESDAY EVENING. LGT
SHOWERS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE IN HOW QUICKLY
TO BRING STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION BACK INTO THE AREA FM THE SW.
NAM QUITE DRY IN THE MID-LEVELS WHILE GFS IS MOST MOIST. ECMWF AND
GEM PROVIDE COMPROMISE AND SUGGEST BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LATER IN
THE AFTN OVER THE WEST. TEMPS WILL REACH UPR 60S TO NEAR 70 OVER
WEST WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER BUT MAY PUSH INTO MID 70S FAR EAST
WITH GREATER CHANCE OF SOME SUNSHINE AND A NORTHEAST DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF ONTARIO.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARD NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE BECOMING
NEGATIVELY TILTED...AT LEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME. SFC LOW WRAPS UP AND
DEEPENS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST FOR THIS RUN...ECMWF IS TRENDING
TOWARD GFS SHOWING MORE WRAPPED UP AND FARTHER WEST TRACK TO THE
LOW. EARLIER ECMWF RUNS SHOWED WEAKER MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. APPEARS THE LOW WILL BE SOMEWHERE FM ECNTRL MN TO NORTHWEST
WI AROUND 995MB AT 12Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHOW A SIMILAR MSLP BY
TIME IT REACHES WESTERN LK SUPERIOR OR NORTHWEST UPR MICHIGAN BY 00Z
THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE DRAWN INTO THE LOW ALONG WITH ENHANCING
FORCING PROVIDED BY UPPER JET OVER ONTARIO AND ADDITIONAL JET
LIFTING IN FM CNTRL PLAINS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN LIFTING OVER
MUCH OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY SLOT DIMINISHING STEADY RAIN TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTN. TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY SLOT WITH STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM...COULD SEE
DECENT EMBEDDED TSRA ON TUESDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH A MORE STEADIER
RAIN. MUCAPES ON WEDNESDAY VARY FM 500J/KG TO 1500 J/KG...WITH THE
MOST INSTABILITY SHOWN ON THE GFS DURING MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY. NOT
SURE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSOLATION TO REALIZE THAT FORECAST
INSTABILITY. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER AND SFC SYSTEM WIND
FIELDS ARE STRONG WITH H85 WINDS AROUND 40 KTS AND H7-H5 WINDS OVER
50 KTS...SO IF TSRA COULD DEVELOP AND BECOME SFC BASED COULD BE
DEALING WITH STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WITH QUICK MOVING LINE SEGMENTS.
EVEN WITHOUT TS WINDS...GRADIENT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST HALF.

ONCE THE LOW TRACKS TO JAMES BAY/HUDSON BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING....CHILLY WNW-NW FLOW /H85 TEMPS DOWN TO 5-7C/
ALONG WITH PLENTY OF DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND
UPR MICHIGAN. SINCE WATER TEMPS ON LK SUPERIOR HAVE WARMED WELL INTO
THE 60S OVER THE NEARSHORE AREAS AND IN THE 50S FARTHER OUT INTO THE
LAKE...APPEARS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN AIR-WATER DIFFERENCE TO
ADD SOME LAKE MOISTURE AND FLUXES TO AN ALREADY MOIST AND CONVERGENT
FLOW PATTERN IN WAKE OF THE LOW. MODEL QPFS HINTING AT THIS AS WELL
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY THURSDAY BEFORE BACKING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
DRYING TAKE OVER. INCREASED TO LIKELY POPS FOR NW CWA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND BROUGHT LIKELY POPS ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR FOR
THURSDAY. STRONGER WINDS WILL BUILD WAVES ALONG SOUTH SHORE OF LK
SUPERIOR SO WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHER SWIM RISK AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

INTO FRIDAY...ECMWF COMPLETELY BACKED AWAY FM STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IT WAS SHOWING 24 HR AGO.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IS EXPECTED
NOW. COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE FM
SCNTRL CANADA TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM FRONT WITH THAT SYSTEM
WILL SET UP FARTHER NORTH...SO SATURDAY IS LOOKING DRY ATTM WITH A
WARMING TREND. PERHAPS MID 80S IN SOME AREAS WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA. IF SYSTEM SLOWS SOME...WHICH IS ALWAYS
POSSIBLE...THEN TEMPS COULD BE BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF CWA.
DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE MODELS REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...SO USED
CONSENSUS FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2015

SOME -SHRA/PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FNT APRCHG FM THE W WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW DURING THE EARLY MRNG HRS. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER
LLVL AIR WL ENSURE CONDITIONS REMAIN VFR AT CMX AND IWD EVEN IF SOME
-SHRA FALL THERE. BUT SAW COULD PICK UP MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MORE
HUMID LLVL AIR LINGERING. SINCE THE COLD FNT WL STALL JUST TO THE S
ON MON...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THIS BNDRY WL BRING A
CONTINUED CHC OF MORE -SHRA INTO THE AFTN AT SAW. WITH A WSHFT TO
AN UPSLOPE NNE DIRECTIN IN THE AFTN AND MORE LINGERING MSTR...MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY AT SAW FOR A TIME. SINCE CMX AND IWD WL BE FARTHER
FM THE FNT AND DEEPER INTO THE INCOMING DRY AIRMASS...VFR CONDITIONS
WL REMAIN THE RULE THERE THRU THE TAF PERIOD..
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH AND VEER NW
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COOLER
WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO UP TO 30 KNOTS ON WED INTO THU
MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. COULD BE
SOME NW GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS THU MORNING BEHIND THIS STRONG
LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KC
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
109 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

MIZ010-011-170700-
DICKINSON MI-IRON MI-
109 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 108 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
FLORENCE...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF KINGSFORD...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FELCH...FOSTER CITY...RALPH...MERRIMAN...PEAVY FALLS DAM...GRANITE
BLUFF...RANDVILLE AND HARDWOOD.

LAT...LON 4587 8807 4589 8810 4592 8810 4592 8813
      4596 8819 4594 8821 4596 8825 4595 8830
      4598 8834 4614 8773 4591 8767 4586 8809
TIME...MOT...LOC 0608Z 255DEG 27KT 4590 8828

JLB