Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1249 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

.UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL MN HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING THANKS TO A MODEST CONFLUENCE ZONE AND AN
AREA OF WEAKLY CAPPED 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. THINK THESE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE CONFLUENCE ZONE WILL SAG
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND SET UP ROUGHLY FROM RWF TO MSP AND RNH
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE IT WILL BE DIFFUSE...INSTABILITY WILL BUILD
AND SHOULD STILL SUPPORT ISO-SCTD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR
TO WHAT IS SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. IF A FEW STORMS CAN
DEVELOP...WILL PROBABLY SEE OTHERS FORM ON THEIR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
IN AREAS OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. SO WHILE THE STORM INTENSITY WILL
BE RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...WE COULD END UP SEEING A SCENARIO WHERE A
BROKEN BAND OR SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/ISO STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN
THE CONFLUENCE ZONE. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO OVER DEVELOP THESE
STORMS AND THE CAMS ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER. ANY ACTIVITY THAT FORMS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND ORGANIZE INTO A CLUSTER/MCS THIS EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AS RIDGING BUILDS
TO THE WEST AND SHOULD BYPASS MOST OF THE CWA WITH A NOTED EXCEPTION
SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY ONE MEAGER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WHILE TEMPERATURES BOUNCE AROUND
NORMAL.

FOR PATTERN EVOLUTION...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY RETROGRADING BACK
WEST...WITH ITS RIDGE AXIS BUILDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES BY MONDAY. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY LAY OVER TO
THE EAST NEXT WEEK. MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THIS SCENARIO BETWEEN THE
ECMWF/GFS IS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
FLATTENING OUT THE RIDGE BY NEXT WEEKEND AND REPLACING IT WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW.

MONDAY MORNING...THE WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WORKING INTO CENTRAL
NOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF WORKING INTO NRN IOWA. MAY SEE A
LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR MONDAY MORNING...BUT
MODELS THIS EVENING ARE NOW MAINLY DRY...SO CUT BACK POPS DOWN THERE
TO JUST SLIGHTS. AFTER THAT...THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING TO OUR WEST
WILL SEND SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOWN FROM CANADA...WITH DEEP NRLY FLOW
TAKING OVER. THIS WILL DRY US OUT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH IT
LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ONLY POTENTIAL
WEATHER HAZARD THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE THREAT FOR
SOME FOG. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG LOOKS TO COME WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE
SFC HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. LOWS ACROSS WRN WI WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 50S WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
THREAT FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE GREATEST. BASICALLY KEPT
FOG MENTIONS TUE/WED MORNINGS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE FINALLY GET INTO SOME RETURN FLOW AS THE SFC
HIGH PUSHES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS IS HAPPENING...A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS SRN CANADA IN NW FLOW...LIKELY
REACHING THE NW SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIVE ANOTHER DIFFUSE BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WSW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL PULL SOME AIR FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS HEAT DOME INTO MN...MAKING THURSDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S POSSIBLE INTO WRN MN. MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW THIS FRONT CROSS THE MPX CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. HOWEVER...THE BEST UPPER FORCING WILL BE
STAYING WELL TO OUR EAST...WHILE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
LOOKS MEAGER ACROSS THE MPX AREA. WE WILL HOWEVER SEE DEWPOINTS PUSH
BACK UP TO AROUND 70...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S WILL GET AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME WIDELY SCT STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT MOST
FOLKS TO STAY DRY. 00Z GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH QPF FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA...SO DID CUT BACK ON POPS...WITH CHANCE POPS
CONFINED TO MAINLY WRN WI CLOSER TO WHERE THE UPPER FORCING WILL BE
BEST. FROM THE SEVERE PERSPECTIVE...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN OUT IN THE DAKOTAS WHILE BEST SHEAR WILL BE OFF TO OUR
EAST...SO NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF DO NOT SHOW THE NEXT BOUNDARY WORKING
INTO THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY...SO DRIED OUT THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS WE WILL SEE ANOTHER SFC HIGH PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

SMALL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF
THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO SOUTHERN MN
THIS EVENING TAKING THE SHOWERS/THUNDER WITH IT. SHOULD BE OUT OF
THE TAF SITES BY AROUND 00Z OR SO. JUST SOME MID CLOUDS LINGERING
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR WORKING SOUTH. THIS SHOULD LIMIT
FOG MOST AREAS. S-SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BECOMING N-NW WITH
FROPA.

KMSP...CHC MVFR WITH -TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 21Z OR SO...OTHERWISE VFR
WITH MIX OF CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME LINGERING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE OUT AHEAD OF
SHOWERS/THUNDER BUT SHOULD BECOME N-NW WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT-TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 6-11 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...DWE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

MNZ047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-101200-
STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-
LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-
ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-
CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-
WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-
BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED BUT A STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ041>045-101200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-
1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

MNZ055>057-091600-
KANDIYOHI-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
1032 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN KANDIYOHI...
NORTHEASTERN CHIPPEWA AND SOUTHEASTERN SWIFT COUNTIES...

AT 1031 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR KERKHOVEN...OR 14
MILES WEST OF WILLMAR...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLMAR...KERKHOVEN...MURDOCK...PENNOCK...DE GRAFF...PRIAM AND
WILLMAR AIRPORT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4504 9552 4529 9554 4532 9503 4501 9502
TIME...MOT...LOC 1531Z 250DEG 32KT 4511 9533

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1051 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

MNZ056-057-065-091615-
KANDIYOHI-CHIPPEWA-RENVILLE-
1051 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN KANDIYOHI...EAST
CENTRAL CHIPPEWA AND NORTH CENTRAL RENVILLE COUNTIES...

AT 1050 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER RAYMOND...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WILLMAR...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLMAR...RAYMOND...PRINSBURG...BLOMKEST...SVEA AND PRIAM.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4512 9529 4510 9485 4482 9493 4495 9533
TIME...MOT...LOC 1550Z 285DEG 34KT 4502 9520

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1117 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

MNZ057-058-065-091645-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-RENVILLE-
1117 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL MEEKER...
SOUTHEASTERN KANDIYOHI AND NORTH CENTRAL RENVILLE COUNTIES...

AT 1117 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SVEA...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WILLMAR...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLMAR...ATWATER...GROVE CITY...PRINSBURG...KANDIYOHI...LAKE
LILLIAN...BLOMKEST...SVEA AND THORPE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4491 9519 4519 9506 4517 9463 4482 9481
TIME...MOT...LOC 1617Z 288DEG 27KT 4504 9496

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

MNZ058-059-065-066-091745-
WRIGHT-MCLEOD-MEEKER-RENVILLE-
1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MEEKER...
NORTHWESTERN MCLEOD...SOUTHWESTERN WRIGHT AND NORTHEASTERN RENVILLE
COUNTIES...

AT 1205 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CEDAR MILLS...OR 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF HUTCHINSON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
 HUTCHINSON AROUND 1220 PM CDT.
 SILVER LAKE AROUND 1235 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE GREENLEAF...SMITH
LAKE...LAKE MARION REGIONAL PARK...SUMTER...CEDAR MILLS...BISCAY...
DARWIN...LAKESIDE AND HUTCHINSON AIRPORT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4480 9458 4516 9447 4516 9406 4472 9424
TIME...MOT...LOC 1705Z 282DEG 28KT 4497 9452

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
202 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

MNZ060>062-092100-
ANOKA-RAMSEY-HENNEPIN-
202 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

ANOKA...RAMSEY...HENNEPIN...

AT 200 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS OVER RAMSEY...OR NEAR MINNEAPOLIS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINNEAPOLIS...BROOKLYN PARK...PLYMOUTH...MAPLE GROVE...COON RAPIDS...
BLAINE...MINNETONKA...ROSEVILLE...ANDOVER...BROOKLYN CENTER...FRIDLEY
AND SHOREVIEW.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 128 AND 129.
 INTERSTATE 94 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 206 AND 228.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 10 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 218 AND 240.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 155.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 132 AND 146.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 146 AND 150.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 4513 9302 4512 9299 4507 9298 4493 9371
      4513 9371 4516 9364 4519 9366 4521 9364
      4521 9360 4523 9356 4522 9353 4527 9351
      4536 9303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 180DEG 0KT 4509 9346

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
210 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

WIZ014-015-091945-
POLK-BARRON-
210 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2015

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

POLK...BARRON...

AT 209 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS OVER RICE LAKE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RICE LAKE...BARRON...AMERY...OSCEOLA...CHETEK...CUMBERLAND...ST.
CROIX FALLS...CAMERON...LUCK...CLEAR LAKE...TURTLE LAKE AND BALSAM
LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 U.S. HIGHWAY 53 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 151.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 61 NEAR MILE MARKER 165.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS FARM AND COUNTRY ROADS. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 4522 9265 4560 9261 4563 9155 4521 9154
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 180DEG 0KT 4533 9205

JLT