Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
648 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. WIND GUSTS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND SMALL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS
UNLIKELY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THIS LINE AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY IT...A SLOWER COMMUTE WILL
LIKELY BE HAD. DO EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND AS THE LINE SHIFTS
EASTWARD INTO MORE STABLE AIR HOWEVER...SO CONCERNS WILL DECREASE
THROUGHOUT MORNING AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS LINE...THE NEXT CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING REDEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/ MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE MORNING
CONVECTION...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE AWHILE TO SEE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PROGGED H7 TEMPS OF +12 TO
+14C NOSING INTO EAST CENTRAL MN. DID RE-INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AT 21Z...BUT THAT COULD BE A BIT
PREMATURE. ONCE CELLS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR
PROVIDED BY ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND LAPSE RATES IN THE 7-8 C/KM RANGE. LARGE
HAIL/WINDS/HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS...PRIMARILY
EAST OF AN ALEXANDRIA...TO WILLMAR...TO FAIRMONT LINE.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE CLOUDS/PRECIP AND
EVENTUAL COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL PRIMARILY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THRU MONDAY)

WED THRU FRI REMAIN DRY AND VERY COMFORTABLE IN TERMS OF HUMIDITY
LEVELS AS TODAYS SYSTEM SCOURS OUT THE HUMID AIR MASS. DEW PTS WILL
FALL BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BY WED. EVEN PAST FRIDAY...DEW
PTS DO NOT RISE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH A PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALOFT
KEEPING MOST OF THE HUMID AIR TO THE SOUTH/SW OF MPX CWA. TWO
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST PAST
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHC OF ANY CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR SAT/SUN WITH AN ACTIVE UPPER JET MOVES OVERHEAD.

NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. BOTH THE
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING A SHARP DROP IN TEMPS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A VERY ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATES ACROSS
HUDSON BAY. THIS SAME UPPER LOW IS THE REMNANTS OF TODAYS STRONG
SYSTEM THAT IS VERY ANOMALOUS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST. THIS SYSTEM IS MORE TYPICAL FOR SEPT THEN MID
SUMMER. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP MUCH COOLER AIR FROM
NORTHERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND...AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK
OF THE COOLEST AIR WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
...BUT THIS AIR MASS IS COOL ENOUGH FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S BY
NEXT WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A CONVECTIVE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING...BRIEFLY REDUCING CONDITIONS TO IFR.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LINE...SHOULD SEE A BREAK BY LATE MORNING WITH
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR. REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE AS A COLD FRONT PASSES...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW GIVEN HI-RES MODEL DISPARITIES AND DOUBTS ABOUT WHETHER
ENOUGH SUN/HEATING WILL OCCUR TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE.
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCT ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FROM KMSP
EASTWARD TO KRNH/KEAU BY 21Z...ENDING DURING THE EVE. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY...THEN VEER TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS CONTINUING.

KMSP...
IFR POSSIBLE THROUGH 17Z...THEN ACTIVITY WANES WITH VFR EXPECTED
AFTER THAT. SCATTERED AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH
CLEARING OCCURS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

WED...VFR. WINDS W AT 20G30KT.
THU...VFR. WINDS W AT 10-15 KT.
FRI...VFR. WINDS W AT 5 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
402 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
290915-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
402 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW FOR
THIS MORNING.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTHEAST. SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AS WELL AS WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
629 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MNZ076-077-084-085-093-281230-
RICE-WASECA-LE SUEUR-FREEBORN-STEELE-
629 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT STEELE...NORTHERN
FREEBORN...WASECA...RICE AND EASTERN LE SUEUR COUNTIES...

AT 629 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR HEIDELBERG TO WALDORF...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OWATONNA...FARIBAULT...NORTHFIELD...WASECA...NEW PRAGUE...LONSDALE...
MONTGOMERY...JANESVILLE...BLOOMING PRAIRIE...WATERVILLE...WEBSTER AND
DUNDAS.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 25 AND 74.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 14 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 182.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4385 9365 4385 9376 4419 9377 4455 9366
      4454 9328 4447 9328 4447 9305 4384 9305
      4383 9365
TIME...MOT...LOC 1129Z 269DEG 33KT 4449 9358 4392 9373

JRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 WNW RICHFIELD         44.89N 93.32W
07/28/2015  M1.45 INCH       HENNEPIN           MN   COCORAHS

            OCCURRED IN APPROXIMATELY 35 MINUTES.

&&

AJZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MNZ078-281300-
GOODHUE-
705 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT GOODHUE COUNTY...

AT 704 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN WAS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RANDOLPH TO NEAR
MERTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RED WING...CANNON FALLS...PINE ISLAND...ZUMBROTA...KENYON...
GOODHUE...STANTON...WANAMINGO...WELCH...DENNISON...FRONTENAC AND
VASA.

THIS INCLUDES U.S. HIGHWAY 61 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 79 AND 104.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4451 9304 4451 9295 4454 9291 4454 9280
      4463 9279 4463 9273 4471 9273 4457 9255
      4455 9232 4445 9232 4445 9243 4437 9243
      4436 9255 4420 9256 4419 9304 4420 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 1204Z 253DEG 39KT 4457 9307 4409 9313

JRB

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