Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SEVERAL STRONG TSRA/S MOVED ACROSS MPX CWA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...WHICH WAS AHEAD OF A FRONT IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AS OF 3
AM.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS IF SHRA/TSRA REDEVELOPMENT /ALONG &
AHEAD OF FRONT/ DURING THE AFTN ONCE THE MORNING ACTIVITY MOVES OFF
INTO IA/WI.

TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND THE AMT OF INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT...STILL WARRANTS CHC POPS IN MPX FAR SE CWA. ALTHOUGH CURRENT
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE MAINLY DRY. THE BEST AREAS OF REDEVELOPMENT
WILL BE SE OF A LINE FROM KAEL TO KEAU. SVR WX IS POSSIBLE BASED ON
THE SVR WX PARAMETERS THIS AFTN IF STORMS DEVELOP. TEMPS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE
90S AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

DEPENDING UPON THE AMT OF MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY...WILL
DETERMINE IF WE GET FOG LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 0355 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE RATHER
ACTIVE AND FEATURE WARM TEMPERATURES...AND THEN DRIER AND COOLER
AIR ARRIVES MID TO LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.

A 1015MB HIGH WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...AS WE
REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS MID LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL DRAW
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS /GFS-NAM-ECMWF/ ARE CONTINUING TO HINT AT THE
PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY IN THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
ITS LOCATION AND ATTENDANT CONVECTION IS STILL HIGHLY VARIABLE
AMONGST THE SOLUTIONS. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW-MID
CHANCE RANGE...ALTHOUGH BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS POINT IS IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARCHING FROM CENTRAL MN INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MN AND NORTHEASTERN IA.

ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...A FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL CAP IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE.
THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR MONDAY.

A STRONGER BOUNDARY LIFTS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HAVE A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN POPS WITH THIS ONE.
MID/UPPER DYNAMICS /SHEAR/ ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH THE PROGGED INSTABILITY WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPS /80-85/ WILL PREVAIL ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2015

TSRA ARE DEVELOPING AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD AS OF 12 AM ACROSS
WESTERN AND SW MN. BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...KSTC/KAXN
WILL SEE TSRA THRU 8-10Z...WITH KRWF BETWEEN 6-8Z. KRNH/KEAU WILL
LIKELY SEE THE ACTIVITY TOWARD 11-13Z WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS...BUT VSBY COULD BE REDUCED TO 1SM OR LESS FOR A 5-10 MIN
PERIOD. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE S/SE OF MPX CWA BY
14-15Z...WITH REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY AFT 21Z NEAR KEAU. CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH ON TSRA ACTIVITY BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND ATMOSPHERIC
CONDS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SW/W BY THE LATE MORNING IN
WESTERN MN...AND IN THE EARLY AFTN IN EC MN.

KMSP...

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE TERMINAL BY
8-9Z...BUT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL TSRA ARE EXPECTED AFT 10Z FOR A FEW HRS WHICH
COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW VSBY FOR A 5-10
MIN PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TREND AS BEFORE WITH THE BULK
OF THE TSRA BETWEEN 10-13Z...WITH WINDS BECOMING SW BY 17Z...THEN
NW BY EARLY/MID AFTN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
MON...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JLT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
250500-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THROUGH SUNRISE. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE TWIN CITIES AND
CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON EAST
AND SOUTH AND CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS.

IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ON FRIDAY AS WELL. HEAT INDICES IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ARE POSSIBLE.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CHECK FUTURE OUTLOOKS FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
211 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MNZ042-043-048-049-240800-
STEARNS-MORRISON-POPE-TODD-
211 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT STEARNS...SOUTHEASTERN
POPE...MORRISON AND TODD COUNTIES...

AT 210 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR PHILBROOK TO NEAR SUNBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 45
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LITTLE FALLS...SAUK CENTRE...MELROSE...LONG PRAIRIE...STAPLES...
ALBANY...RICHMOND...AVON...ROYALTON...BROWERVILLE...BROOTEN AND
BELGRADE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 94 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 117 AND 156.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 10 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 106 AND 156.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 71 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 144 AND 199.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

LAT...LON 4635 9470 4636 9467 4631 9455 4633 9441
      4627 9434 4623 9440 4616 9437 4615 9403
      4583 9424 4582 9435 4577 9428 4540 9451
      4541 9532 4637 9483 4637 9474
TIME...MOT...LOC 0710Z 258DEG 40KT 4630 9468 4541 9521

JPC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MNZ077-078-084-085-092-093-240900-
FARIBAULT-RICE-WASECA-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-STEELE-
300 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT STEELE...EASTERN
FARIBAULT...SOUTHWESTERN GOODHUE...FREEBORN...EASTERN WASECA AND RICE
COUNTIES THROUGH 400 AM CDT...

AT 259 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR LONSDALE TO NEAR NEW RICHLAND TO RAKE...AND
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OWATONNA...FARIBAULT...NORTHFIELD...ALBERT LEA...WASECA...LONSDALE...
PINE ISLAND...ZUMBROTA...WELLS...BLOOMING PRAIRIE...KENYON AND
DUNDAS.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 69.
 INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 131 AND 173.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 14 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 158 AND 182.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

LAT...LON 4399 9356 4449 9352 4440 9243 4437 9244
      4436 9255 4420 9256 4419 9305 4350 9305
      4350 9404
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 312DEG 42KT 4446 9338 4395 9347 4349 9396

JPC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
305 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MNZ049-057>059-240900-
STEARNS-KANDIYOHI-WRIGHT-MEEKER-
305 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
STEARNS... MEEKER...WESTERN WRIGHT AND EASTERN KANDIYOHI COUNTIES
THROUGH 300 AM CDT...

AT 304 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM PAYNESVILLE TO NEAR SVEA...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. CLOUD...LITCHFIELD...COLD SPRING...ANNANDALE...COKATO...
PAYNESVILLE...MAPLE LAKE...HOWARD LAKE...CLEARWATER...DASSEL...
RICHMOND AND NEW LONDON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 94 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 174 AND 188.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 78 AND 127.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

LAT...LON 4545 9410 4539 9401 4540 9399 4538 9396
      4539 9392 4533 9387 4497 9406 4498 9504
      4545 9481 4546 9410
TIME...MOT...LOC 0804Z 271DEG 38KT 4539 9472 4502 9491

JPC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED HEADLINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
307 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MNZ049-057>059-240900-
STEARNS-KANDIYOHI-WRIGHT-MEEKER-
307 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
STEARNS... MEEKER...WESTERN WRIGHT AND EASTERN KANDIYOHI COUNTIES
THROUGH 400 AM CDT...

AT 304 AM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM PAYNESVILLE TO NEAR SVEA...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ST. CLOUD...LITCHFIELD...COLD SPRING...ANNANDALE...COKATO...
PAYNESVILLE...MAPLE LAKE...HOWARD LAKE...CLEARWATER...DASSEL...
RICHMOND AND NEW LONDON.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 94 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 174 AND 188.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 78 AND 127.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY CAN RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN THE TWIN CITIES.

LAT...LON 4545 9410 4539 9401 4540 9399 4538 9396
      4539 9392 4533 9387 4497 9406 4498 9504
      4545 9481 4546 9410
TIME...MOT...LOC 0804Z 271DEG 38KT 4539 9472 4502 9491

JPC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
337 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MNZ048-049-055-057-058-241130-
STEARNS-KANDIYOHI-POPE-SWIFT-MEEKER-
337 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

STEARNS...KANDIYOHI...POPE...SWIFT...MEEKER...

AT 330 AM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF STEARNS...KANDIYOHI...POPE...SWIFT
AND MEEKER COUNTIES. LOCALLY TWO TO THREE OF RAINFALL HAD OCCURRED
SINCE 1 AM NEAR BROOTEN...BELGRADE...LAKE HENRY AND PAYNEVILLE. AN
ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAINFALL ENDS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LITCHFIELD...ST. JOSEPH...COLD SPRING...GLENWOOD...ROCKVILLE...
PAYNESVILLE...DASSEL...RICHMOND...STARBUCK...NEW LONDON...SPICER AND
EDEN VALLEY.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 94 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 158 AND 163.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 93 AND 112.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 8 IN MINNESOTA NEAR MILE MARKER 6.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 71 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 131 AND 161.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 4558 9430 4507 9429 4538 9572 4570 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 0833Z 180DEG 0KT 4550 9497

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MNZ049-058>060-066-068-241000-
STEARNS-WRIGHT-MCLEOD-MEEKER-HENNEPIN-CARVER-
354 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN
STEARNS... HENNEPIN...EAST CENTRAL MEEKER...NORTHEASTERN
MCLEOD...WRIGHT AND NORTHERN CARVER COUNTIES...

AT 353 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN WAS OVER
WAVERLY...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BUFFALO...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUFFALO...BLOOMINGTON...BROOKLYN PARK...PLYMOUTH...MAPLE GROVE...EDEN
PRAIRIE...MINNETONKA...EDINA...ST. LOUIS PARK...CHASKA...CHAMPLIN AND
CHANHASSEN.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 94 IN MINNESOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 182 AND 186...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 188 AND 220.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 12 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 113 AND 156.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 169 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 118 AND 145.
 U.S. HIGHWAY 212 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 153 AND 162.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4532 9381 4530 9377 4530 9374 4518 9337
      4480 9338 4499 9430 4548 9431
TIME...MOT...LOC 0853Z 290DEG 37KT 4511 9397

JRB