Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
713 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NE-SW ORIENTED CDFNT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A LOW PRES CENTER DEVELOPING ALONG IT
OVER S-CENTRAL SD. ALOFT...A DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GRT LKS
REGION WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY WSW-ENE FLOW ALOFT...OWING TO A SHARP
PIVOTING LONGWAVE TROF AXIS EXTENDING SWD FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
THIS TROF LOOKS TO DIG DEEPER INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS...WITH A
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING WITHIN IT WHICH WILL SHIFT E ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THESE FEATURES ALOFT WILL HELP DRAG THE
AFOREMENTIONED CDFNT EWD INTO NRN MN THIS EVENING AND ACRS MN
OVERNIGHT INTO TMRW MRNG THEN ACRS WI DURG THE DAY SATURDAY.
DAYTIME HEATING MAKING FOR SBCAPES ARND 3000 J/KG PLUS LLVL
JETTING IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE WITHIN AN ENVIRON OF 1.5 INCH PWAT
AND THE UPR LVL LOW ENHANCING DEEP LIFT WILL MAKE FOR A SUFFICIENT
COMBINATION TO ALLOW SCTD TSTMS TO BREAK OUT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS
AND WRN MN LATER THIS AFTN. AS THE CDFNT AND ASSOCIATED UPR TROF
SHIFT EWD...THE THINKING IS THAT THE TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED...PARTICULARLY WITH THE UPR TROF BECOMING MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED THRU THE EVE. THE TSTMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
MERGE INTO AN MCS FEATURE THAT WILL SHIFT ESE THRU MUCH OF THE WFO
MPX CWFA THIS EVE THRU THE EARLY MRNG HRS. THE STORM MODE WILL
ADJUST FROM ONE OF TORNADIC/HAIL AT THE ONSET TO A STRAIGHT LINE
DMGG WIND MODE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND THE MCS MOVES ALONG.
THE STORMS WILL REACH FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA BY DAYBREAK BUT
LIKELY IN A WEAKENED STATE WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN AROUND
THE MAIN CLUSTER FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH ADDITIONAL
HEATING EXPECTED TMRW AGAIN TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH SIMILAR
DEWPOINTS IN ADVANCE OF THE CDFNT DURG THE DAY TMRW...ADDITIONAL
TSTM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY IN SERN MN INTO WRN WI DURG THE DAY
TMRW. LOW- TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN DURG THE DAY TMRW
AS THE COLD POOL CUTOFF LOW MOVES OVER NRN WI...MAKING LARGE HAIL
AND DMGG WINDS AGAIN A HAZARD FOR FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
TMRW WHILE MUCH OF THE MN PORTION OF THE CWFA REMAINS DRY ALBEIT
WARM/HUMID.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...LOWS TNGT WILL NOT FALL ALL THAT
MUCH DUE TO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APCHG CDFNT MOVING INTO THE
REGION AND DEWPOINTS REMAINING QUITE HIGH. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE 65-70. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY HIT THE MID- UPR 80S
WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS NOT UNREASONABLE...ESP IN CENTRAL-
SRN PORTIONS OF MN. FAR WRN MN LOOKS TO BE COOLER WITH THE COLD
FROPA...ONLY IN THE LWR 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL... WITH A COUPLE
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... BUT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK... WITH THE GEFS SHOWING SOME SPREAD AS WELL...
SUGGESTING LESS CONFIDENCE IN THINGS ONCE WE GET BEYOND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. AS OFTEN OCCURS IN SUCH SCENARIOS... WE/LL NEED
TO INCLUDE POPS OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST THAN WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE WITH
RESPECT TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THE PATTERN IS DURING MID/LAKE WEEK...
WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SLOWER EVOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF. WE COULD
HAVE SOME LINGERING PCPN EARLY TOMORROW EVENING... BUT OTHERWISE
THINGS LOOK TO DRY OUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FROPA. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. AT THIS POINT KEPT
MONDAY DRY EVEN THOUGH WE/LL HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. THE UPPER FORCING DOESN/T LOOK TO BE TOO STRONG... AND THERE
ISN/T MUCH MOISTURE RETURN/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. DID INCLUDE
SOME POPS ACROSS THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP AS THE FRONT GETS FARTHER SOUTH/EAST. IT/S
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE LOW POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED EARLIER ON
MONDAY... BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE OF A SIGNAL IN THE GUIDANCE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT... WITH FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BY
WEDNESDAY WE GET TO THE POINT WHERE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE... WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING PCPN INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA. SOME CHANCE POPS ARE THEN CONTINUED
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THE FORECAST CONCERN IS TIMING THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WE THINK THE STORMS WILL LOSE
SOME OF THEIR INTENSITY ONCE THEY GET INTO MN /THEY HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING BASEBALL HAIL THIS EVENING/...BUT THERE IS STILL A GOOD
CHANCE MOST OR ALL THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES WILL SEE THUNDER
BETWEEN 8PM AND 1AM...EVENTUALLY A CLUSTER/LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO WI.

KMSP...

WE ACTUALLY THINK THERE COULD BE 2 ROUNDS OF THUNDER. THE FIRST
COMING THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THE SECOND CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WE
HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST. WE'LL GET SOME MORE SPECIFIC
TIMING ONCE THESE STORMS GET INTO MN.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 10 KT.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1209 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
181200-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1209 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT GENERALLY
WEST OF A LINE FROM LITTLE FALLS TO THE TWIN CITIES TO LAKE CITY.
A MARGINAL RISK ENCOMPASSES THE REST OF EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
MERGE INTO A COMPLEX OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PUSH
ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

HEAT INDICES MAY RISE TO AROUND 95 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. HEAT ILLNESSES MAY OCCUR...PRIMARILY FOR
THOSE WHO ARE ACTIVE OUTDOORS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO AROUND 95 ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
AND WESTERN WISCONSIN SATURDAY. HEAT ILLNESSES MAY OCCUR...
PRIMARILY FOR THOSE WHO ARE ACTIVE OUTDOORS.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY FOR MINNESOTA PORTIONS OF THE
COVERAGE AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
122 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 AM     TSTM WND GST     EXCELSIOR               44.90N 93.57W
07/18/2015  M55 MPH          HENNEPIN           MN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            OCCURRED AT FIRE DEPT IN TOWN.

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
125 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0114 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E EXCELSIOR           44.90N 93.55W
07/18/2015                   HENNEPIN           MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE BRANCH DAMAGED ROOF NEAR CHRISTMAS LAKE. POWER
            ALSO LOST ON SITE.

&&

AJZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
130 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ROSEMOUNT               44.75N 93.07W
07/18/2015                   DAKOTA             MN   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN...MAINLY 2 INCHES OR SLIGHTLY
            GREATER IN DIAMETER.

&&

AJZ

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