Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
703 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

LATEST AVAILABLE COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO EAST CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AHEAD OF DISSIPATING NORTHWEST MN MCS.
EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT SAGS SLOWLY INTO THE WEST AND NORTHERN CWA THIS
EVENING...SIMILAR TO MOST HIRES/CAM SOLUTIONS. SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO THE AREA...WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS BECAUSE HIGH DCAPE GENERATED AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AS GREATER SHEAR WORKS INTO
THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES A BIT FARTHER EAST...WE
COULD SEE A HAIL THREAT AS WELL. LATER IN THE EVENING...THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION AND THE WEAK SOUTH DAKOTA SURFACE
WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET/IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HIGH PW VALUES ALL PAINT A
HEAVY RAIN PICTURE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT. AT THE
MOMENT...HAVE BASIN AVERAGE AROUND 2 INCHES ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR
DAWSON...ST CLOUD AND MORA. AS WAVE APPROACHES... EXPECT MCS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE AREA...WITH ENHANCED LIFT/FRONTOGENESIS
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. FLASH FLOODING A THREAT LATE TONIGHT...CLOSE TO
WPC SLIGHT RISK DEPICTION.

THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE 12Z MODELS
AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER WITH OVERALL MOVEMENT. WILL
CONTINUE TO TRAIL POPS OFF TO THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND
EXITING TO THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH WITH NIL POPS. THE HIGH
WILL DRIFT OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT. CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS IN THE 40S WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FOLLOW SUIT IN MOST
PLACES. RECORD LOWS AT EAU AND MSP ARE 46 AND 51 RESPECTIVELY AND
FORECAST LOWS ARE WITHIN 3 OR 4 DEGREES OF THESE. SHOULD ALSO SEE
AREAS OF FOG...PARTICULARLY EAST WHERE IT WILL BE COOLEST AND
CROSSOVER TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED.

BY MID TO LATE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL AS A RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL STEER SHORT WAVES EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS. DEPENDING WHERE THEY GO WILL DETERMINE HOW WARM WE GET OR
HOW WET WE GET. GFS IS MORE BULLISH IN BRINGING THE RIDGE
NORTHWARD AND ADVERTISES 90S OR 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
NEXT WEEKEND. ECMWF IS MORE RESERVED WITH THE RIDGE AND KEEPS THE
STORM TRACK OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS A NORTHERN SHIFT FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. DID RAISE HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LATE WEEK/NEXT
WEEKEND CLOSER TO MOS AND KEPT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY AS THIS
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
NEARBY. INTERESTINGLY...FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS THE CFS HINTED
AT A WARMER AND WETTER PATTERN TOWARD MID JULY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
UNFOLDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WEST CENTRAL MN HAS BEEN A LITTLE BIT LATER
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THERE WERE INDICATIONS OF SUBSIDENCE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN WEST CENTRAL MN WITH SOME DISSIPATION
OF CU. BUT THAT WAS SHORT LIVED AS STORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEASTERN SD...AND WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN AS
FRONT MOVES IN. FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH... THERE WILL BE A FEW
STORMS HERE AND THERE BUT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED RAIN AND STORMS
WILL MAINLY BE LATER TONIGHT AS BETTER LIFT ARRIVES FROM SD/NE.
EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND EVEN SOME IFR MONDAY MORNING ACROSS A LARGE
AREA...WITH IMPROVEMENT NOT UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST.

KMSP...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF METRO...AND THESE HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED. TIMING OF
WIDESPREAD TSRA DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE AFTER 07Z. MORE THUNDER POSSIBLE 12Z-16Z WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR VISIBILITY AT TIMES. LONG
LASTING MVFR CERTAINLY NOT COMMON FOR EARLY JULY. FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MID-LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON NIGHT...VFR. WINDS NW 10-15 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
634 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MNZ041>045-047>052-054>062-064>069-073>076-082-083-091-062345-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-
MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-
MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-
WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-MARTIN-
634 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA AND
SPREAD EAST TONIGHT. THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY LATER
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
MORNING.

THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

MNZ053-063-070-077-078-084-085-092-093-WIZ014>016-023>028-062345-
CHISAGO-WASHINGTON-DAKOTA-RICE-GOODHUE-WASECA-STEELE-FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-
EAU CLAIRE-
634 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY.

THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

BORGHOFF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
832 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             DONNELLY                45.69N 96.01W
07/05/2015  M0.50 INCH       STEVENS            MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
841 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MNZ047-060345-
STEVENS-
841 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

STEVENS...

AT 840 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS OVER MORRIS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRIS...HANCOCK...CHOKIO...LAKE HATTIE...ALBERTA AND MORRIS AIRPORT.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS FARM AND COUNTRY ROADS. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

LAT...LON 4556 9624 4568 9597 4566 9576 4541 9575
      4541 9623 4542 9624
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 240DEG 0KT 4561 9590

ADL