Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
722 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN
MN THIS AFTERNOON. HIRES MODELS BRING SAID ACTIVITY INTO THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA /ALEXANDRIA/ AROUND 03Z...THEN
HAVE IT REACHING THE MN/WI BORDER AROUND 07Z. THE INTENSITY OF THE
STORMS DECREASES AS THE LINE PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST...AND EXPECT IT
TO BE MORE OF A BROKEN NATURE BY THE TIME IT REACHES EAST CENTRAL
MN /TWIN CITIES/. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PRIMARILY BE
RESTRICTED TO THE FAR NORTHWEST CWA /NEAR KAXN/ WHERE INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE GREATER.

AS THE SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
POSSIBLE. ATTENDANT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND MARGINAL SHEAR WILL
LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...AND ALSO LIMIT HEATING ON
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE LOW 70S ARE
FORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL NOT BUDGE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LONG TERM
FORECAST...LEAVING SMALL AND LOW CONFIDENCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
NEXT WEEK AS WAVE AFTER WAVE SLIDE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
FIRST SUCH WAVE SUNDAY WILL BE TAKING STORM ACTIVITY WITH IT EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. AFTER A LULL FOR MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI MONDAY. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ERN MN AND WRN WI DUE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. LITTLE WIND SHEAR WILL FOSTER NON-SEVERE
MULTICELLS/CLUSTERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND OUTFLOWS WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
INSTABILITY DROPS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WRN/SRN MN...AND STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED THERE. HIGHS WILL BE HELD
BACK SOME ACROSS THE EAST WHERE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD...BUT MID TO UPPER 80S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WEST
WHERE 925 MB TEMPS INCREASE TO AROUND +25C. STORMS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING LOOK DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. COULD SEE AREAS OF FOG MONDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS DECOUPLE AND CROSSOVER TEMPS ARE REACHED LATE. LOCALLY DENSE
PATCHES ARE LIKELY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAIN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE
STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK AS
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF BUILDING THE RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MAIN THREAT IS THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONGEST IN WESTERN MN...AND
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY VFR OVERNIGHT
WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS AND MODELS SHOWING LESS CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT.

KMSP...
STORMS IN WESTERN MN WILL WEAKEN AS THE MOVE EAST...SO HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE TAF AT MSP. THE MAIN CHALLENGE WAS TRYING TO
TIME THE WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. USED
FORECAST MODELS...BUT MOVED UP THE TIMING BASED ON A LINEAR
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT WIND SHIFT. SUNDAY WILL HAVE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS NNW 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NE 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR WITH -TSRA POSSIBLE. WINDS E 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
281745-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
1237 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ADVANCE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY INTO
WISCONSIN EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE THREATS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 94. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOR ANY GIVEN PERIOD APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
OVER WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1014 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SSE MADISON           44.99N 96.18W
06/27/2015  M67 MPH          LAC QUI PARLE      MN   ASOS

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1017 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 PM     HAIL             4 W BOYD                44.85N 95.98W
06/27/2015  M0.75 INCH       LAC QUI PARLE      MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1029 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MNZ055-280415-
SWIFT-
1029 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN SWIFT COUNTY...

AT 1029 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LAKE OLIVER...OR 14
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORRIS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF WESTERN SWIFT
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...HAGEN...HOLLOWAY AND
DANVERS.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4542 9588 4541 9584 4515 9540 4515 9591
      4536 9612 4541 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 316DEG 29KT 4539 9604

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1031 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NW BOYD               44.87N 95.92W
06/27/2015  M65 MPH          LAC QUI PARLE      MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAINWISE MARK III ON A 60 FT TOWER

&&

CARLYON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1032 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MNZ064-073-280430-
YELLOW MEDICINE-REDWOOD-
1032 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT YELLOW MEDICINE AND SOUTHWESTERN
REDWOOD COUNTIES...

AT 1032 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SPELLMAN LAKE...OR 12
MILES NORTH OF MARSHALL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANITE FALLS...CLARKFIELD...WABASSO...WOOD LAKE...HANLEY FALLS...
ECHO...VESTA...MILROY...LUCAN...SPRING CREEK...SEAFORTH AND HAZEL
RUN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4481 9594 4481 9584 4486 9584 4489 9575
      4492 9573 4491 9568 4479 9550 4478 9553
      4477 9551 4474 9543 4431 9522 4432 9559
      4463 9561 4463 9599 4476 9603
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 323DEG 28KT 4463 9584

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1139 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MNZ073-280515-
REDWOOD-
1139 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN REDWOOD COUNTY...

AT 1138 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER TRACY...OR 18 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MARSHALL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WALNUT GROVE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4432 9559 4432 9558 4420 9539 4420 9560
      4430 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0438Z 314DEG 22KT 4423 9557

SPD