Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
409 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WILL END BY
THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THAT AREA MOVES
INTO SOUTHEAST MN. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS MAINLY WEST CENTRAL WI.
CURRENT PW MEASUREMENTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL
WI ARE AT NEAR RECORD VALUES FROM KMPX SOUNDING DATA. THIS IS
LEADING TO TROPICAL DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES PER HOURS. VARIOUS CAMS SHOW THAT IT MAY BE HARD TO
COMPLETELY END THE SHOWERS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR AREAS FROM KEAU
TO KRCX. THIS MAY LEAD TO FOG FORMATION DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS AS CLOUDINESS DECREASES ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A MOIST
LOW LEVEL. AT THIS POINT...INDICATED SOME FOG FOR WEST CENTRAL WI
BUT THE EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS IS
ENOUGH. ALSO INDICATED SOME FOG ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE IT
RAINED LAST NIGHT AND CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ALL DAY. THIS AREA
WILL BE UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE BY DAYBREAK ALONG WITH A CLEARING
SKY WHICH IS A GOOD COMBINATION FOR FOG FORMATION.

THURSDAY WILL BEGIN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN
MN. HOWEVER...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND PUSH
THROUGH THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON. VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
TRYING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE TWIN CITIES. THEREFORE...INDICATED SOME LOW CHANCE POPS.
THE NAM WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LIKELY POPS SPREADING IN
FROM WEST CENTRAL MN IN THE AFTERNOON. USED MIX DOWN FOR HIGHS
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 STILL INDICATED FROM THE TWIN CITIES
ON SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WILL BE WITH US THROUGH THE EXTENDED. OUR
LOCATION WITHIN OR ON THE SRN GRADIENT OF THE NORTHERN STREAM JET
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND THE 80 MARK WITH PLENTY OF
TROPICAL DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY...OUR LOCATION WITH
RESPECT TO THE JET ALSO LEADS TO LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF
PRECIP CHANCES STARTING SATURDAY AND GOING RIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER-AIR
PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS NOT ALL THAT BAD...BUT AT THE SFC
THINGS GET MUCH MORE CHAOTIC WHEN IT COMES TO FRONTAL PLACEMENT AS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONE NIGHT WILL IMPACT WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
AND THEREFORE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDS UP THE NEXT DAY. THE
MAIN UPPER AIR EVOLUTION WE WILL SEE THIS PERIOD IS THE MAIN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE SW OF CALIFORNIA WILL SPEND THE
NEXT WEEK SLOWLY TREKING EAST ACROSS THE SRN CONUS...EVENTUALLY
ENDING UP IN THE SOUTHEAST CONUS/WRN ATLANTIC BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. WE WILL BE SPENDING THE ENTIRE WEEK ON THE NORTH EDGE OF
THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A FERTILE BREEDING GROUND FOR MCC/MCS
ACTIVITY.

WE WILL START THE LONG TERM OFF ON A QUIET NOTE ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS NRN MN. THIS WILL ALSO GIVE US A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM 60+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS. MAIN TIMEFRAME TO WATCH FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. WE HAVE SEEN A SLOWING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO DID SLOW
DOWN ERN PROGRESSION OF CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE ERN MPX CWA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT HOW FAR IT GETS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW
STORMS EVOLVE FRIDAY NIGHT. FROM THE SEVERE PERSPECTIVE...THINK
THE SPC DAY 3 SLIGHT /FRI INTO FRI NIGHT/ MAY BE A BIT OF A PUSH
FOR HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREAT EXISTS AS THAT WOULD BE
DEPENDENT ON THE FASTER SOLUTIONS COMING THROUGH. SATURDAY MAY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEVERE WEATHER AS THE BOUNDARY MAY BE
BISECTING THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE
REMNANTS OF BILL THAT WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WOULD FAVOR
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY AS BILL SLOWS
THINGS UP A BIT BACK OUR DIRECTION.

AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...IT GETS TOUGH TO PICK OUT ANY DRY/WET PERIODS
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE WE WILL HAVE HANGING AROUND WITH
BOUNDARIES LIKELY STALLED OUT IN THE AREA. FROM THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING PERSPECTIVE...SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK TO OFFER US A BIT OF A
LULL WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING THROUGH...WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS THE SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE
PASSES DUE SOUTH OF US...GETTING IS MORE INTO A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
RING OF FIRE POSITION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI...AHEAD OF A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHERN MN. THE MAIN TERMINALS
AFFECTED ARE KMSP...KRNH AND KEAU. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH OF THESE THREE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING...BUT IT MAY TAKE
UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT TO COMPLETELY GET RID OF THEN IN WEST
CENTRAL WI. THIS OPENS THE GATE FOR FOG TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY SOME CLEARING. THEREFORE...INDICATED MVFR
VSBYS FOR KRNH AND KEAU LATE IN THE NIGHT. USED TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
FOR KRWF...KSTC AND KAXN BUT FOR A DIFFERENT REASON. THESE SITES
WILL BE UNDER A SURFACE HIGH WITH LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TEMP/DEW
POINTS ALONG WITH A MOIST GROUND FROM THE RAIN LAST NIGHT. SURFACE
WINDS ARE SE TO S AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND NE-NW IN IT/S WAKE.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW AT ALL SITES LATE BY THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS
10 KNOTS OR LESS.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA IS THROUGH 20Z AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. A FEW SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT AFTER 20Z
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. S-SE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BACK TO THE NE BY 20Z AND BECOME NW BY 00Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS SE 10-15 KT.
SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCNL PERIODS OF MVFR-IFR IN SHRA/TSRA.
      WINDS SSW 10-15 KT BECOMING NW IN AFTERNOON.
SUN...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHC OF MVFR SHRA/TSRA. N WINDS 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1158 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

MNZ044-045-050>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-
WIZ014>016-023>028-181700-
MILLE LACS-KANABEC-BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-WRIGHT-
HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-
DAKOTA-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
1158 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A NEW ULM TO RED WING LINE...WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MNZ041>043-047>049-054>058-064-065-073-181700-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-REDWOOD-
1158 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FRIDAY AND SUNDAY AND THEN AGAIN
ON TUESDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
457 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     HAIL             CLARKS GROVE            43.76N 93.33W
06/17/2015  M1.75 INCH       FREEBORN           MN   PUBLIC

            PICTURE OF GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL RELAYED BY LOCAL MEDIA.

&&

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
519 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

MNZ093-172315-
FREEBORN-
519 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

FREEBORN...

AT 517 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN HAD ALREADY FALLEN...AND ANOTHER
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WAS
BETWEEN CLARKS GROVE AND MANCHESTER...OR JUST NORTH ALBERT LEA.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLARKS GROVE...HOLLANDALE AND MANCHESTER.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 19.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...AS WELL AS FARM AND COUNTRY ROADS. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

LAT...LON 4376 9318 4368 9318 4371 9354 4379 9353
TIME...MOT...LOC 2217Z 180DEG 0KT 4373 9339

JRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
521 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

WIZ025-027-172300-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-
521 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA AND
NORTHEASTERN DUNN COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM CDT...

AT 520 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WHEELER...OR 11 MILES
NORTH OF MENOMONIE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...BLOOMER...COLFAX...WHEELER...TILDEN...
TAINTER LAKE...HOFFMAN HILLS REC AREA AND EAGLETON.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4498 9196 4516 9194 4514 9135 4498 9134
      4489 9151 4493 9182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 276DEG 22KT 4506 9181

JPC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSW AMERY             45.26N 92.40W
06/17/2015                   POLK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GREENHOUSE AND TREES DAMAGED. REPORTED VIA
            COUNTY DISPATCH.

&&

JPC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
607 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

MNZ093-180000-
FREEBORN-
607 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

FREEBORN...

AT 606 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS NEAR ALBERT LEA.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALBERT LEA...HAYWARD AND ALBERT LEA AIRPORT.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 8 AND 13.
 INTERSTATE 90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 155 AND 173.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 4359 9343 4370 9342 4368 9305 4365 9305
      4365 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 180DEG 0KT 4366 9313

JRB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
613 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

WIZ027-180000-
CHIPPEWA-
613 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTY
THROUGH 7 PM CDT...

AT 613 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR COLFAX...OR 12 MILES
NORTHWEST OF EAU CLAIRE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHIPPEWA FALLS...LAKE HALLIE...LAKE WISSOTA...TILDEN AND BATEMAN.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4497 9165 4506 9163 4506 9147 4501 9127
      4492 9124 4490 9148
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 286DEG 17KT 4501 9159

JPC