Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
659 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

TWO SHRTWV/S MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYER OVER THE NEXT 6-9 HRS WITH ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION WHERE
INSTABILITY HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BY
SUNSET...ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE. SOME OF THE
STORMS THIS AFTN WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL BASED ON
MLCAPES OF 1500 AND SHEAR VALUES OF 30 KTS. THE BEST CHC OF SVR WX
IN MPX CWA WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NW WHERE BETTER CAPES REMAIN.

OTHERWISE...NOT TOO MANY CHGS OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE 50S/60S. TOMORROW WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS ONCE
AGAIN RISING INTO THE 70S/LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

A SMALL RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE ACRS THE AREA MON
NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR A RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION BUT A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRES WILL DRIVE SEWD FROM S-CENTRAL CANADA FOR TUE. UPR LVL
SUPPORT IS WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MAINLY FROM THE NW WHILE H5 HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE. BEST
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE CONFINED TO N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SO
WILL KEEP ONLY SLGT CHC POPS GOING FOR MAINLY NRN AND ERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA. BETTER DEFINED HIGH PRES WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION UNDERNEATH A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AXIS...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EWD. WED INTO THU...THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS A
LONGWAVE TROF DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND DIGS SWWD.
THIS DIGGING TROF WILL AID IN CYCLOGENESIS OVER CO/KS...AND THIS
DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL
SYSTEM BLANCA WHICH WILL RIDE NEWD FROM THE MEXICAN BAJA INTO THE
SWRN CONUS AND CONTINUING INTO THE NRN-CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL INCRS PWATS TO BETWEEN 1.50-2.00 FOR THU
INTO FRI...COINCIDENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW PRES CENTER
FROM NEBRASKA INTO NRN IA/SRN MN. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY THU-FRI...INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF
MOD-HVY RAIN AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS. ONCE THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...A MORE
TRANQUIL PERIOD WILL DEVELOP FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CANNOT RULE
OUT ADDITIONAL SHWRS/TSTMS FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS A SRN STREAM SYSTEM
LOOKS TO LIFT N INTO THE REGION...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. AFTER THE BRIEF WARM SPELL FOR
TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES TUMBLE BACK DOWN TO NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE LATE WEEK STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. KAXN AND KEAU HAVE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR TSRA IN
THE NEXT HOUR. SOME FOG MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THE HEAVIER RAIN YESTERDAY ALONG WITH
LIGHT WINDS LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE WAS HIGHEST FOR MENTION AT
KEAU...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD FOG WITH THE NEXT SET FOR KSTC. ON
MONDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH 12-15
KNOTS COMMON ALONG WITH GUSTS 18-24 KNOTS. MENTIONED VCSH FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KRWF AS
INSTABILITY BUILDS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST FOR THE SHOWERS AT KRNH AND KEAU PER THE CONSENSUS OF
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.

KMSP...MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO CONVERGE
ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS WHICH MAY
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IN ADDITION TO THE
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRFIELD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

TUE...VFR. ISOLD TSRA IN THE EVENING. WIND SW 10 KTS BCMG NW LATE.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10 KTS.
THU...MVFR/SHRA/TSRA LIKELY. ESE WIND 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
939 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
081600-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
939 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL CONTAIN SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS WEEK...PARTICULARLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
919 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

MNZ044-045-080245-
KANABEC-MILLE LACS-
919 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MILLE LACS AND
SOUTHERN KANABEC COUNTIES...

AT 918 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS 10 MILES WEST OF KNIFE
LAKE...OR 27 MILES WEST OF HINCKLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORA...OGILVIE...QUAMBA...MORA AIRPORT AND LEWIS LAKE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4590 9314 4585 9314 4573 9347 4574 9348
      4593 9362 4605 9346
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 314DEG 30KT 4597 9351

ADL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
935 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

MNZ044-045-050>052-080300-
KANABEC-SHERBURNE-BENTON-ISANTI-MILLE LACS-
935 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN MILLE LACS...
NORTHWESTERN ISANTI...SOUTHWESTERN KANABEC...NORTH CENTRAL SHERBURNE
AND EASTERN BENTON COUNTIES...

AT 935 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER OAK PARK...OR 19 MILES
NORTHEAST OF ST. CLOUD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRINCETON...MILACA...FOLEY...FORESTON...BOCK...GLENDORADO...DALBO...
PEASE...OAK PARK...RONNEBY...LEWIS LAKE AND PRINCETON AIRPORT.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4593 9361 4575 9331 4547 9370 4566 9397
      4583 9383 4583 9377 4590 9377 4595 9372
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 314DEG 30KT 4573 9385

ADL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
936 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             2 N RANDALL             46.12N 94.51W
06/07/2015  E1.75 INCH       MORRISON           MN   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF GOLF BALL HAIL. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
954 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     HAIL             ONAMIA                  46.07N 93.66W
06/07/2015  E0.88 INCH       MILLE LACS         MN   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL THAT LASTED A WHILE.

&&

JB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
958 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

MNZ044-045-051>053-061-080330-
KANABEC-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-ANOKA-MILLE LACS-CHISAGO-
958 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN CHISAGO...
SOUTHEASTERN MILLE LACS...ISANTI...SOUTHERN KANABEC...EASTERN
SHERBURNE AND NORTHWESTERN ANOKA COUNTIES...

AT 956 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR GRASSTON TO NEAR BECKER...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CAMBRIDGE...ELK RIVER...BIG LAKE...ST. FRANCIS...ISANTI...
ZIMMERMAN...PRINCETON...MORA...RUSH CITY...BRAHAM...BRUNSWICK AND
OGILVIE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 153 AND 163.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 4584 9314 4573 9314 4573 9285 4572 9287
      4563 9289 4529 9361 4530 9366 4553 9388
      4556 9384 4556 9376 4561 9376 4591 9332
TIME...MOT...LOC 0256Z 330DEG 39KT 4581 9319 4547 9386

ADL