Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
657 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS LOCATION OF THE INITIAL CONVECTION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS AND WHERE DOES THIS ACTIVITY MOVE
BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN MN.

MOST OF THE CONVECTION TODAY HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS NW/NC MN WHERE SHRA/TSRA
HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD. ANOTHER AREA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A MORNING
DECAYING COMPLEX SOUTH OF KFSD...BUT HAS REGENERATED AS OF 245 PM.
SOME OTHER ACTIVITY WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF KABR.

HIRES-CAMS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT IN TERMS OF HOW WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA WERE TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTN ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. THEY
CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
THIS AFTN...AND WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN MN BY EARLY
EVENING...AND INTO EASTERN MN BY MID/LATE EVENING. THIS HAS LED TO
SEVERAL UPDATES THIS AFTN FOR DECREASING THE CHC/S OF SHRA/TSRA
UNTIL THIS EVENING. EVEN THIS MAYBE TOO SOON AS THE COMPLEX IN NW
IA/NE NEBRASKA WILL LEAD TO BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SW OF MPX
CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING. THEREFORE...WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH ACTIVITY
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING. SO...SVR WX CHC/S REMAIN
MARGINAL AS ANY DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL BE GONE. HOWEVER...MODELS
STILL ADVERTISE ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASE DURING THE EVENING
ALONG WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8" WHICH IS WELL NORMAL...OR 3-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABV NORMAL FOR MN. SO...ANY TSRA THAT
DEVELOP...RAINFALL RATES WILL BE HIGH. EVEN THE HOPWRF PROBABILITY
OF 1-2" AMTS EVERY 3 HRS ARE HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MN LATER
THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONT. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS THAT SEE SOME TRAINING OF THE STORMS.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THRU TONIGHT...LOW CLDS IN THE MORNING WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK UP BY SUNDAY AFTN. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTN...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS
OF TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 423 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

POTENT UPR LVL TROF AXIS SWINGS THRU THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON
MRNG...PUSHING A CDFNT WELL INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY DAYBREAK MON
MRNG...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND AN END TO ANY AND ALL
PRECIP. ALTHOUGH IT IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU...IT WILL NOT HAVE
THE TRUE EFFECTS SINCE H5 HEIGHTS RISE AS AN UPR LVL RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MOCLR SKIES MON-TUE...RESULTING IN A NOTICEABLE
WARMUP FOR MON-TUE...INCLUDING HIGHS HITTING THE MID-UPR 80S ON
TUE.

ANOTHER CDFNT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA ON WED...BUT THEN STALL
OUT NEAR/OVER THE AREA LATE WED THRU FRI...WHILE AT LEAST ONE AREA
OF LOW PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND RIDES NEWD ALONG
THE STALLED FRONT. DEEP SLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WRN GOMEX
AS ANOTHER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SERN CONUS WHILE A
POTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE SWRN CONUS INTO THE NRN
PLAINS. THE DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE STALLED FRONT
WILL KEEP PRECIP IN THE FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT THRU THE REST OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES...INCLUDING HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MESSY NIGHT AHEAD ON AVIATION AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT APPEARS
THAT IT WILL NOT BE ONE LINE BUT CLUSTERS THAT WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH WHICH DIMINISHES CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. IN ADDITION...A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE FACT THAT THE
CEILINGS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ISSUE IS
THE THREAT FOR MORE SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT
THIS POINT...IT WOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AND
MAINLY FOR THE MN TERMINALS.

KMSP...CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR TSRA AS WE NEAR MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING
OFF AND ON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BEGIN THE MORNING AT LOW
MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 14Z. A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRFIELD AFTER 22Z ON
SUNDAY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN NGT...VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IN THE EVENING WIND
          NW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND WNW 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND SW 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...RAH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MNZ042>045-049>053-058>063-066>070-075>078-083>085-092-093-
WIZ014>016-023>028-072100-
TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEARNS-BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-
CHISAGO-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-MCLEOD-
SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-
BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
358 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA TO MANKATO AND ALBERT LEA WILL HAVE LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY EAST OF ALEXANDRIA TO
ALBERT LEA.

MNZ041-047-048-054>057-064-065-073-074-082-091-072100-
DOUGLAS-STEVENS-POPE-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-REDWOOD-BROWN-WATONWAN-MARTIN-
358 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING. AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM
ALEXANDRIA TO MANKATO TO ALBERT LEA WILL HAVE LOCALLY STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEST OF A LINE FROM MONTEVIDEO TO REDWOOD FALLS AND
FAIRMONT.

JLT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
532 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MNZ055>057-062315-
KANDIYOHI-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
532 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN KANDIYOHI...NORTHEASTERN
CHIPPEWA AND SOUTHEASTERN SWIFT COUNTIES...

AT 531 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR GLUEK...OR 11 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MONTEVIDEO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLMAR...RAYMOND...KERKHOVEN...MURDOCK...PENNOCK...SUNBURG...
PRIAM...GLUEK AND WILLMAR AIRPORT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4495 9558 4508 9569 4538 9520 4503 9493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 243DEG 32KT 4505 9553

DWE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
826 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

MNZ042-043-070215-
MORRISON-TODD-
826 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN MORRISON
AND NORTHERN TODD COUNTIES...

AT 825 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR BERTHA...OR
25 MILES NORTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BROWERVILLE...CLARISSA...RANDALL...EAGLE BEND...BERTHA...HEWITT...
CUSHING AND PHILBROOK.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4630 9448 4603 9452 4607 9514 4632 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 274DEG 32KT 4622 9510

DWE