Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
908 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
RAIN TODAY PER RADAR TRENDS AND VIRTUALLY ALL HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE. INCREASED POPS TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS SRN MN AND WRN WI
WHERE 1/4-3/4 INCH IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH DUE TO A TROPICAL/HIGHLY
EFFICIENT AIRMASS ACCOMPANYING THIS POTENT WAVE LIFTING NORTH
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...DEFORMATION AREAS MAY SEE INTENSE RAIN
RATES AND LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR
FROM ALBERT LEA TO EAU CLAIRE AND LADYSMITH. MAINTAINED A TIGHT
POP GRADIENT FROM REDWOOD FALLS TO THE TWIN CITIES AND CAMBRIDGE
WHERE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEADIER
RAIN WEST OF THERE. ALSO REDUCED HIGHS TODAY WHERE RAIN AND CLOUDS
WILL PERSIST...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS LIKELY IN THE DRIER YET
CLOUDY AREAS NEAREST THE POP GRADIENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PAIR OF WELL-DEFINED LOW
PRES CENTERS...ONE NEAR KDLH AND ANOTHER NEAR KOMA...LINKED BY A
TRAILING CDFNT FROM THE FORMER TO A LEADING WMFNT FROM THE LATTER.
MEANWHILE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
FL WITH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROF AXIS ENTERING THE UPR MISS RIVER
VALLEY REMAINS. A CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE TROF OVER
ERN SD AND THIS FEATURE WILL TRAVERSE EWD OVER SRN MN DURG THE DAY
TDA. IN CONCERT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE SFC FRONT WILL ALSO
SLOWLY MOVE EWD ACRS THE AREA WHILE THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR KOMA
SHIFTS NEWD ALONG THE FRONT. THE DEEPENING OF THE UPR LOW COMBINED
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN EXPANSION OF
SHWRS /AND ISOLD TSTMS/ FROM AROUND THE MN/IA BORDER NEWD INTO WRN
WI...POSSIBLY GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO.
BEST SHOT OF RAIN WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
RICE LAKE-COTTAGE GROVE- FAIRMONT...AND HRRR/HOPWRF/SREF INDICATES
ENOUGH CAPE TO POTENTIALLY SEE A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
ACTIVITY. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE E...SO WILL THE PRECIP
SHIELD...SO WILL LOOK FOR PRECIP TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E THIS EVE
INTO THE EARLY MRNG HOURS. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFF TO
THE E COME DAYBREAK WED MRNG.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MILD AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S THIS MRNG BUT MODEST CAA WITH THE ADVANCE
OF THE FNT WILL HOLD HIGHS BACK IN THE LWR 70S TDA. ONLY PARTIAL
CLEARING TNGT ALONG WITH WINDS BACKING TO WLY WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SKIES WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK
AS A SURGE OF WARM AIR PUSHES IN. MUCH OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE
AGREES THAT WIDESPREAD MID 80S ARE CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE SO MADE
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TOMORROW.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE BY THURSDAY WHICH MEANS WE'LL SEE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS WILL BE WARM AGAIN...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT STILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS PUSHING IN FORM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH. WORKED THOSE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIP
CHANCES GO AWAY ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND WE'LL BE
IN A POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH A DECENT COOL DOWN EXPECTED
AS A SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY MORNING LOWS...SO
ITS EITHER 10 DEGREES ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL IN THIS PATTERN. 850MB
TEMPS MAY COOL TO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS AND WITH POTENTIALLY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE SOME TEMPS IN THE
30S BY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE EC AND GFS CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP IN
SOUTHERN MN SUNDAY...SO STUCK WITH A BLEND FOR NOW AND CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. WE GET BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

LOW STRATUS SCATTERED AROUND THE AREA THIS MRNG MAKING FOR A
PATCHWORK OF CEILINGS...SOME DOWN TO 002 AND SOME VFR. AM THINKING
THE STRATUS WILL LEVEL OUT TO GENERALLY MVFR TO LOW-END VFR
CEILINGS BY LATE MRNG AND REMAIN AS SUCH THRU MUCH OF THE DAY
WHILE A SFC FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES E AND EXITS THE AREA. IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP FOR MAINLY WRN WI AND SRN MN...POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR E
AS KMSP...BUT HAVE CONFINED BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FOR THE WI TAF
SITES WITH BEST TSTM CHCS FOR KEAU. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THIS EVE AS THE FRONT EXITS AND HIGH PRES ENTERS...MAKING FOR VFR
CONDS TNGT INTO TMRW MRNG. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM N TO W
THRU THE NEXT 24 HRS BUT THERE WILL BE OCNL VARIATIONS THROUGHOUT
WITH SPEEDS AOB 10 KT.

KMSP...HAVE INCLUDED A BKN005 MENTION AT INITIALIZATION DUE TO
SEVERAL SITES ARND KMSP REPORTING AS SUCH. SKIES THEN RETURN TO
VFR CEILINGS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE THIS MRNG INTO EARLY AFTN
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MVFR CEILINGS DURING A WINDOW OF BEST
TIMING FOR -SHRA. CONDS THEN RETURN TO VFR TNGT THRU TMRW.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. CHC P.M. -SHRA/-TSRA. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRI...MVFR IN SHWRS/TSMS. IFR POSSIBLE. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS BECOMING
N 10-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NE 10-15 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JPC
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...JPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1152 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MNZ041>044-047>050-054>058-064-065-073-271700-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-
LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-YELLOW MEDICINE-
RENVILLE-REDWOOD-
1152 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ045-051>053-059>063-066>070-074>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-271700-
KANABEC-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-
WASHINGTON-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-BROWN-NICOLLET-
LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-
CHIPPEWA-EAU CLAIRE-
1152 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MORA TO REDWOOD FALLS. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SLOW MOVING CELLS MAY PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED TODAY...BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

BORGHOFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1249 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MNZ060>062-261900-
ANOKA-RAMSEY-HENNEPIN-
1249 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED...

VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL AFFECT
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

ANOKA...RAMSEY...HENNEPIN...

AT 1248 PM CDT...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WAS OVER MAINLY NORTHERN RAMSEY COUNTY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...MAPLEWOOD...ROSEVILLE...FRIDLEY...SHOREVIEW...
WHITE BEAR LAKE...NEW BRIGHTON...LINO LAKES...COLUMBIA HEIGHTS...
VADNAIS HEIGHTS AND MOUNDS VIEW.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW
INCHES OF SWIFTLY FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 4522 9303 4519 9302 4513 9302 4512 9299
      4511 9298 4503 9299 4496 9329 4511 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 180DEG 0KT 4509 9307

BORGHOFF