Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
357 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION PUSHING EAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE WAVE ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO
SOUTHERN MN AND DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN WELL INTO THE 60S.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN MN INTO EASTERN
SD WILL CONTINUE AS DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED. A SUBTLE WAVE
ADVANCING NORTH WILL HELP INITIATE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 30-40 KNOTS MAY PRODUCE
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN MN THIS EVENING.
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

ON SUNDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ADVANCE
NORTH AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE FROM KANSAS
NORTHWARD THROUGH NEBRASKA AND EVENTUALLY INTO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRESENT...MUCH BETTER
SHEAR AND SURFACE ENERGY WILL COME TOGETHER THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...WHERE
THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE ENHANCED
CATEGORY. 0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPROACHING 60 KNOTS COMBINED WITH
BETTER SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA WILL ALLOW SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW THOUGH
IN THE SEVERE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL DUE TO MORNING CONVECTION AND
ITS POSSIBLE AFFECT ON DESTABILIZATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
SUFFICIENT HEATING THOUGH...EXPECT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE
POSSIBILITY OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING IN
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE HAIL...WIND...AND A FEW TORNADOES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

SFC LOW OVER N-CENTRAL MN WILL HAVE ITS PROGRESS SLOWED AS IT
RUNS INTO HIGHER PRES FROM THE N. MEANWHILE...THE DEEP UPR LVL LOW
WILL THEN RUN ATOP THE SFC LOW...MAKING FOR A DEEPLY STACKED LOW
PRES AREA CENTERED OVER NERN MN COME DAYBREAK MON MRNG. THE BULK
OF THE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BE IN ERN PORTIONS OF THE WFO MPX CWFA BY
SUN EVE...PARTICULARLY ANYTHING OF A STRONG/SEVERE NATURE...
LEAVING MAINLY RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING CDFNT. WHILE THE FRONTAL PRECIP COVERAGE WANES SUN NIGHT
INTO MON...THE DEEP COLD LOW MOVING OVER THE REGION MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO NRN-CENTRAL MN AND NWRN WI DURG
THE DAY ON MON. THIS LOW WILL THEN PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MON
NIGHT INTO TUE...BEING REPLACED BY SFC HIGH PRES THAT WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TUE THRU FRI...MAKING FOR A PROLONGED DRY PERIOD FOR THE
REGION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME...THE NW-SE ORIENTATION OF THE
SFC HIGH COMBINED WITH A LONGWAVE TROF SETTING UP OVER ERN NOAM
WILL ALLOW A PERSISTENT PATH OF MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO TAKE
RESIDENCE OVER THE REGION THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS POTENT SURGE OF CAA WILL DROP TEMPS NEARLY 30 DEGREES
FROM SUN INTO MON AS HIGHS ON MON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. FROST MAY BE A CONCERN ON MON AND TUE NIGHTS AS
LOWS DIP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL MN/WI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

CURRENT SCENARIO MAKES FOR A MESSY AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE AREA.
A SURFACE LOW IS PUSHING INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FROM THE
WEST...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S SURGING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MN. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL
REMAIN JUST A COUPLE DEGREES...AND LOW LEVEL LCL'S SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE. SO...EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR TO HOLD FOR THE MOST PART
WITH A FEW PERIODS OF SCATTERING OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN MN AND CONTINUE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. RWF/STC/AXN MAY ALL BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THIS
LINE...BUT MSP MAY BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THESE
STORMS...WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AS THE LOW DEEPENS IN SOUTH
DAKOTA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...WE'LL REMAIN IN UNSTABLE AIR
AND MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING.

KMSP...BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER TONIGHT WILL BE FROM 03Z TO
06Z...HOWEVER THE HRRR INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH WESTERN MN THIS AFTERNOON MAY
SLIDE JUST NORTH OF MSP...BUT IF IT DOES STILL EXPECT OTHER SPOTTY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
FROM ROUGHLY 20-23Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR CIGS. SCT -SHRA. WINDS NW AT 15-25 KTS.
TUE...MVFR CIGS EARLY. WINDS N AT 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NNE 5 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...JPC/CLF
AVIATION...SPD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
123 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
171830-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
123 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...ALTHOUGH TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
STORMS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS. THERE WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES PRIMARILY
ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WEST OF I-35. ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1234 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 PM     HAIL             2 WSW WILLMAR           45.11N 95.08W
05/16/2015  M0.75 INCH       KANDIYOHI          MN   PUBLIC

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

MNZ064-162130-
YELLOW MEDICINE-
358 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN YELLOW MEDICINE
COUNTY...

AT 357 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR COTTONWOOD...OR 15
MILES NORTH OF MARSHALL...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GRANITE FALLS...CLARKFIELD...HANLEY FALLS...HAZEL RUN...SPELLMAN LAKE
AND GRANITE FALLS AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 4489 9585 4489 9575 4491 9572 4490 9569
      4491 9568 4484 9559 4484 9557 4482 9554
      4480 9553 4463 9556 4463 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 180DEG 28KT 4466 9570

MPG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
401 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

MNZ054-056-162130-
LAC QUI PARLE-CHIPPEWA-
401 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTH CENTRAL CHIPPEWA AND EAST
CENTRAL LAC QUI PARLE COUNTIES...

AT 400 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR MONTEVIDEO...MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MONTEVIDEO...WATSON...BIG BEND CITY AND MONTEVIDEO AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 4515 9587 4515 9557 4489 9560 4491 9568
      4490 9569 4491 9573 4493 9573 4489 9575
      4489 9583
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 180DEG 27KT 4490 9570

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
510 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TORNADO          5 NE WATSON             45.05N 95.72W
05/16/2015                   CHIPPEWA           MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO TOUCHDOWN
            NORTH OF MONTEVIDEO. LAW ENFORCEMENT
            REPORTED PART OF ROOF BLOWN OFF BUILDING AT
            A FARMSTEAD 1 MILE WEST OF HWY 29 ABOUT 7
            MILES NORTH OF MONTEVIDEO.

&&

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
IRIS SYSTEM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
512 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

MNZ047-162245-
STEVENS-
512 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT STEVENS COUNTY...

AT 512 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR LAKE HATTIE...OR 14
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORRIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRIS...CHOKIO...DONNELLY...LAKE HATTIE...FISH LAKE...ALBERTA AND
MORRIS AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 4576 9616 4576 9603 4568 9580 4541 9606
      4541 9620 4542 9625 4559 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 206DEG 24KT 4548 9617