Alert archive / Alabama / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

October 26, 2015Baldwin County, Alabama

NWS Mobile, AL issued this special weather statement at Oct 26, 2015, 3:04 AM CDT for Baldwin County, Alabama. It was in force for 41 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 26, 2015, 3:04 AM CDT (08:04 UTC)
Expired: Oct 26, 2015, 3:45 AM CDT
In force: 41 min
Issued by: NWS Mobile, AL

County Baldwin County, AL

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 00:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 318 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 488 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 64 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 468 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 554 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 3.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Oct 25, 9:28 PM CDT, 5 hours 36 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 25, 9:28 PM CDT, 5 hours 36 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
928 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST PUBLIC AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS
BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...AREA OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY SHOW A DEEP AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN LA COAST THIS
EVENING...WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED A
LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST TX.
REGIONAL WATER VAPOR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY ANIMATIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE/UPPER FORCING SPREADING FROM LA INTO MUCH OF MS/AL AHEAD OF
THESE FEATURES THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWARD THROUGH INTERIOR PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AS OF 9 PM CDT...WHILE THE NEXT BATCH IS ON ITS WAY
FROM SOUTHEASTERN LA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS.

THE PRIMARY HEADLINE FOR THIS EVENT STILL LOOKS TO BE HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING AS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY BANDS OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
POTENTIAL...THERE IS ALSO A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AL AND THE NORTHWEST FL
PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY [ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF A
WAYNESBORO...DESTIN LINE] AS BACKED LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS ALONG/NEAR A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BENEATH A HIGH SHEAR SOUTHWESTERLY
MID TO UPPER FLOW ENVIRONMENT. THE LATEST RAP/NAM MODELS INDICATE 0-1
KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES INCREASING TO 200-500 M2/S2 MAINLY
AFTER 06Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST AL AND A LITTLE
LATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. MLCAPES REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED...GENERALLY BELOW 200 J/KG OVERNIGHT...BUT POSSIBLY
RISING TO AROUND 500 J/KG BY MONDAY MORNING ACCORDING TO THE NAM.
THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATIONAL
COUPLETS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO SPINUPS...OR
POSSIBLY LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING IN THE
LIMITED RISK AREA. WE HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICASTS AND WILL ALSO UPDATE
THE HWO TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE...THE ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH CATEGORICAL POPS
WITH MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. STRONG E/SE FLOW WILL
REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF AND AN
ONGOING HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG AREA BEACHES. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA.
/21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR ALZ052-059-060-261>266.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     ALZ263>266.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     ALZ265-266.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR FLZ201>206.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     FLZ202-204-206.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
     FLZ202-204-206.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT
     FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ630>635.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 25, 10:59 PM CDT, 4 hours 5 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1059 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-270400-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1059 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING LATE TONIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE STARTING
LATE TONIGHT.

A STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BRING A HIGH RISK OF DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH SURF TO COASTAL
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR A BRIEF WEAK TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
LOCATIONS SOUTHWEST OF A WAYNESBORO TO DESTIN LINE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 84 THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE. EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.

A STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BRING A CONTINUED HIGH
RISK OF DEADLY RIP CURRENTS...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH SURF TO
COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS OR A BRIEF
WEAK TORNADO SPINUP CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY NEAR COASTAL PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MOBILE.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-270400-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1059 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BRING HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OPEN GULF WATERS OUT TO 60 NM LATE TONIGHT...WHERE FREQUENT WIND
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 7 TO 9
FEET.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PROTECTED BAYS AND
INLAND WATERWAYS TONIGHT WHERE WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH ROUGH WAVES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS OUT TO 60
NM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHERE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AND SEAS
OF 7 TO AS HIGH AS 12 FEET ARE LIKELY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO TUESDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
PROTECTED INSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY AS WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND ROUGH WAVES CONTINUE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 26, 1:50 AM CDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
150 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

ALZ262-264-260715-
BALDWIN CENTRAL AL-BALDWIN INLAND AL-
150 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...CENTRAL
BALDWIN AND INLAND BALDWIN IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 148 AM CDT...A CLUSTER OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM NEAR ROBERTSDALE TO NEAR BAY MINETTE
AND WERE MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAY MINETTE...         ROBERTSDALE...         LOXLEY...
STAPLETON...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

WEAK ROTATION HAS ALSO BEEN DETECTED IN THIS ACTIVITY. THIS STORM
MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND A WARNING MAY SOON BE NEEDED. PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO OR TV FOR FURTHER NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3081 8792 3082 8792 3089 8797 3100 8764
      3090 8762 3087 8764 3082 8760 3054 8753
      3050 8771
TIME...MOT...LOC 0648Z 162DEG 40KT 3071 8769

Special weather statement, Oct 26, 2:22 AM CDT, 42 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
222 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

ALZ261-262-260800-
MOBILE INLAND AL-BALDWIN INLAND AL-
222 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...INLAND
MOBILE AND INLAND BALDWIN IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

AT 220 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BAY MINETTE...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAY MINETTE...         MOUNT VERNON...        MOVICO...
I65 AND AL 287...      I65 AND AL 225...      I65 AND AL 59...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. WEAK ROTATION HAS ALSO BEEN INDICATED WITH
THIS STORM. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3087 8789 3090 8789 3091 8790 3088 8790
      3108 8808 3116 8779 3081 8767 3079 8775
      3079 8782
TIME...MOT...LOC 0720Z 155DEG 28KT 3085 8778

Special weather statement, Oct 26, 3:00 AM CDT, 4 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
300 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

ALZ261-263-260830-
MOBILE INLAND AL-MOBILE CENTRAL AL-
300 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...INLAND
MOBILE AND CENTRAL MOBILE IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA UNTIL 330 AM CDT...

AT 259 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SEMMES...OR
NEAR REGIONAL AIRPORT IN WEST MOBILE...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOBILE...              PRICHARD...            CHICKASAW...
MIDTOWN MOBILE...      REGIONAL AIRPORT IN WEST MOBILE...
I65 AND AL 158...      I65 AND I165...        I10 AND I65...
CHUNCHULA...           I65 AND US 45...       SEMMES...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3091 8840 3101 8810 3062 8806 3061 8809
      3061 8811 3062 8811 3061 8813 3058 8824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 162DEG 40KT 3074 8821

Special weather statement, Oct 26, 3:04 AM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
304 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

ALZ262-264-260845-
BALDWIN CENTRAL AL-BALDWIN INLAND AL-
304 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2015

...AN AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...CENTRAL BALDWIN AND INLAND BALDWIN IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

AT 302 AM CDT...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR
ROBERTSDALE TO JUST NORTH OF SPANISH FORT AND WERE MOVING NORTH AT
45 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAY MINETTE...         SPANISH FORT...        ROBERTSDALE...
LOXLEY...              SUMMERDALE...          SILVERHILL...
STAPLETON...

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WEAK ROTATION HAS ALSO BEEN INDICATED. WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW
OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK
SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 3069 8794 3069 8793 3075 8792 3075 8795
      3070 8794 3072 8795 3078 8800 3081 8799
      3083 8794 3086 8796 3088 8790 3080 8793
      3080 8792 3076 8792 3089 8789 3096 8770
      3050 8761 3045 8778
TIME...MOT...LOC 0802Z 162DEG 40KT 3058 8775

The office that day

Everything else NWS Mobile, AL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 25, 10:19 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MOB		26 min
Oct 25, 10:31 PM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MOB		29 min
Oct 26, 1:50 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MOB	Baldwin	25 min
Oct 26, 2:22 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MOB	Baldwin	38 min
Oct 26, 3:00 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MOB	Mobile	30 min
Oct 26, 4:19 AM CDT	Wind Advisory	MOB	Baldwin, Butler, Choctaw, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington and 6 more	15 hr
Oct 26, 4:57 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MOB	Washington	63 min
Oct 26, 5:05 AM CDT	Small Craft Advisory	MOB		32 hr
Oct 26, 6:30 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MOB	Covington, Escambia	60 min
Oct 26, 7:32 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MOB	Clarke, Conecuh, Escambia, Monroe	3 hr
Oct 26, 9:04 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MOB	Mobile	3 hr
Oct 26, 9:27 AM CDT	Coastal Flood Warning	MOB	Baldwin, Mobile	14 hr
Oct 26, 10:38 AM CDT	Special Marine Warning	MOB		37 min
Oct 26, 12:18 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MOB	Baldwin	117 min
Oct 26, 8:55 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	MOB	Okaloosa	3 days
Oct 26, 10:42 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MOB	Escambia	48 min
Oct 26, 6:35 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MOB	George, Perry, Stone	3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Alabama, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.