Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
352 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY]...A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. COVERAGE WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. OTHERWISE...THE AREA
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND WESTERN GULF
AND A RIDGE TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
FLOW. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE TRICKY DUE TO WHEN AND HOW LONG IT RAINS ON
WEDNESDAY AND A LARGE VARIATION CAN AGAIN BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...MOST
AREAS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

THIS AFTERNOON'S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE.

[THURSDAY AND FRIDAY]...THE PATTERN OF WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS
THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN THROUGH TEXAS AND RIDGING THAT CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 2.0 TO 2.3 INCHES. EXPECTING COVERAGE OF STORMS TO BE
HIGHEST ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA.

DAYTIME HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE POPS ARE 50 TO 60 PERCENT.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE
TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PLACEMENT AND DURATION OF STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON. BY FRIDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW 90S AREA-WIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN ON
REPEAT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MID TO LOW 70S
INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST EACH NIGHT. 07/MB

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...THE AREA CONTINUES TO
TRANSITION OUT OF THE CURRENT SOGGY PATTERN AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO MIGRATE WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES DRIFTING WEST AND BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WILL DECREASE COVERAGE OF STORMS AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA. HEAT
INDICES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO REBOUND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM 103-107. 07/MB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. RAIN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  90  76  89  75 /  30  60  40  60  20
PENSACOLA   78  89  77  89  77 /  30  60  30  50  20
DESTIN      79  88  79  87  79 /  30  60  20  40  20
EVERGREEN   74  91  74  90  74 /  30  60  40  60  30
WAYNESBORO  73  90  73  89  72 /  30  70  40  60  30
CAMDEN      74  91  74  89  74 /  30  60  40  60  30
CRESTVIEW   75  90  75  90  74 /  30  60  30  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
621 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-191130-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
621 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OCCURRING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES
WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND CAUSING
LOCALIZED...MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-191130-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
621 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL COULD PRODUCE CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS LOCALLY
HIGH WAVES THAT MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
443 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

ALZ051-053-182245-
CLARKE AL-CHOCTAW AL-
443 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...NORTHWESTERN CLARKE AND CHOCTAW IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

AT 443 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ZERO TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF PUTNAM...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
THOMASVILLE...         BUTLER...              LISMAN...
COFFEEVILLE...         PENNINGTON...          TOXEY...
NEEDHAM...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
GREATLY RESTRICT VISIBILITY AND CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...WHICH MAY CAUSE VEHICLES TO HYDROPLANE. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION.

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3230 8794 3230 8800
      3228 8802 3215 8802 3214 8804 3209 8804
      3206 8807 3207 8810 3206 8812 3201 8811
      3199 8807 3199 8770 3166 8794 3197 8846
      3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 218DEG 26KT 3229 8869 3192 8805

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