Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
338 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS WILL RETROGRADE
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AS THE BASE OF A VERY LARGE EASTERN CONUS UPPER
TROUGH...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA...DIGS SOUTHWARD ALL THE WAY TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA WILL ENTER IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN STALL ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DETECTING TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION
BEGINNING TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. ONE AREA IS ALONG A RESULTANT
SEABREEZE TRYING TO MOVE INLAND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND THE OTHER
IS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DECREASING STABILITY WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG AND ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP FUEL THE STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP. STILL
EXPECTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SOUTH
LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO BRIEFLY SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 72 TO 76 INLAND AREAS...
WITH UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 90 TO 95 DEGREES. HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 97 TO 104 DEGREES. /22

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS PRETTY STATIC...THOUGH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH
FROM THE WEST PUSHES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE COAST...AND
MOVES DRIER AIR IN THE NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG THE COAST UNTIL THE BOUNDARY MOVES WELL SOUTH
OF THE COAST...BUT FEEL THAT IF ANY...THESE WILL BE MOSTLY EVENING
SHOWERS. THURSDAY...WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA...EVEN WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS STILL IN THE LOW 90S...HEAT INDICES OVER THE AREA WILL
DROP BELOW 100 WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO ORGANIZE A SURFACE
CIRCULATION OFF THE FL/GA/SC ATLANTIC COAST...BRINGING BACK RETURN
MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC. AM EXPECTING THIS MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO
WORK ITS WAY OVER MAINLY NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA. THIS
POINT...THIS BEGINNING MOISTURE RETURN WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE FA AS LOW AS THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY ON)...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BREAK OFF THE SOUTHERN END OF THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH...CREATING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS
SEMI-ORGANIZED UPPER SYSTEM HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONSHORE FLOW AND
MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE GULF AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEX. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A STRONGER RETURN
FLOW THAN THE GFS. EACH MODEL'S ENSEMBLES ARE ADVERTISING A SOLUTION
BETWEEN THEM...SO HAVE WENT BETWEEN FOR THE NUMBERS. THIS MEANS
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND SEASONAL WITH POPS A BIT BELOW...WITH THE
MOISTURE RETURN NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ORGANIZE AN UPPER LOW
OVER/NEAR THE FA....BUT WITH TODAY'S RUNS...THE LOW OPENS QUICKLY TO
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY BY MONDAY EVENING.
THE GFS IS NOW THE FARTHEST WEST WITH THE UPPER DYNAMICS...THOUGH
UNLIKE THE ECMWF YESTERDAY...IS NOT ADVERTISING AS STRONG OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW...THUS MOISTURE RETURN AS THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF STILL
REMAINS THE STRONGEST WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN...AND IS STILL THE
WETTEST/COOLEST. HAVE CONTINUED WITH BLENDING THE SOLUTIONS....WITH
THE RESULT BEING TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL AND POPS A BIT BELOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS
PRETTY STATIC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO OPEN...BUT
FOR THE NUMBERS...THE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS PRETTY DECENT...KEEPING
TEMPS AND POPS AROUND SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
11/18Z TAF ISSUANCE...MAINLY VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO
MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES TO IFR
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
PREVAILING LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...EXCEPT
STRONGER AND MORE VARIABLE AND GUSTY NEAR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL
DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
STALL. THIS BOUNDARY WILL WAVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF INTO
FRIDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  93  72  93  69 /  60  30  20  05  05
PENSACOLA   77  93  74  93  74 /  50  30  30  05  10
DESTIN      79  90  76  93  76 /  50  30  30  05  10
EVERGREEN   73  95  66  94  65 /  50  20  05  00  05
WAYNESBORO  73  94  68  93  64 /  50  05  05  00  00
CAMDEN      72  94  66  93  65 /  50  05  05  00  05
CRESTVIEW   74  95  68  95  67 /  50  30  20  05  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
625 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-121130-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
625 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO BRIEFLY SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

STILL HOT TODAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS HOT AS PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. NO HEAT
ADVISORY TODAY AS MAX HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT AT 103-107 DEGREES
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW SPOTS OVER EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE
108 OR 109 DEGREES...BUT FEEL IT WONT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ADVISORY. HOWEVER...HOT WEATHER SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE
CONTINUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO THE COAST AND REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-121130-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
625 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP INLAND
AND MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST AND THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AS STORMS MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
454 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015

ALZ057-058-060-112300-
BUTLER AL-CRENSHAW AL-COVINGTON AL-
454 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER...CRENSHAW AND NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON IN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 454 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GREENVILLE...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDALUSIA...           LUVERNE...             BRANTLEY...
RUTLEDGE...            DOZIER...              HEATH...
GANTT...               GLENWOOD...            ROSE HILL...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING WIRED
TELEPHONES DIRECTLY CONNECTED TO OUTSIDE PHONE LINES.

LAT...LON 3153 8620 3146 8619 3128 8645 3176 8666
      3188 8650 3171 8615 3166 8615 3166 8616
      3162 8618 3162 8615 3154 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 320DEG 20KT 3177 8653