Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
334 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)....THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES
VERY LITTLE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALLY THE SRN DEEPLY-
REFLECTED RIDGE REMAINS INTACT AS IMPULSES ROTATE AROUND IT IN THE
MID- AND UPPER FLOW. MAIN THING IS DETERMINING EVOLUTION OF LEFT-
OVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME THAT WILL PRODUCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS THROUGH MID EVENING).
LOOKS LIKE THE W-E LINE ENTERING OUR CWFA WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (AS THE FIRST PUSH MOVES
SWD INTO THE COASTAL WATERS). A NICE ZONE OF MLCAPES 2000-2500 J/KG
WILL BE PRESENT AS THE STORMS MOVE FURTHER SWD (AND THIS WILL AVERAGE BEING
THE HIGHEST ZONE OF INSTABILITY AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS). ALSO WILL BE WATCHING ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION UP OVER
NRN/CNTRL AL THAT IS POISED TO MOVE S IN THE FLOW. A WELL- DEFINED
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM SUPPORTING THIS FEATURE VIA
CONSENSUS...BUT THE RECOVERY OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION. MAY JUST
END UP BEING A DECAYING AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVES IN AND
THROUGH DURING THE 9 PM-2 AM TIME FRAME. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...TO LOWER 80S ALONG THE BEACHES.
EXPECT ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGES ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW
AS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SEWD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. WE SHOULD BE JUST OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SO...THE HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT BE RE-ISSUED. /23 JMM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TOMORROW EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)...THE
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVERALL FROM WHAT WAS DESCRIBED ABOVE. A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY DOES SETTLE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER GIVEN THE ASSOCIATED ADDITIONAL CLOUDS BROUGHT THE VIA THE
BOUNDARY. THERE WILL BE A NW-SE ORIENTED MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND ON
AVERAGE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER SE OF I-65 EACH DAY. HIGHS
GENERALLY 90 TO 95 DEG(F) WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...ALOFT...THE FAMILIAR
NW FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME CHANGES IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC LOW LEVELS. BEGINNING MONDAY...THE WWD EXTENSION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH BUILDS WWD AND WE BENEFIT FROM THE
INCREASINGLY MORE SLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL BRING ABOUT A MODERATING
TREND OF THE NW-SE MOISTURE GRADIENT. THIS SETUP KEEPS US SUSCEPTIBLE
TO MID- AND UPPER S/WAVES THAT WILL MOVE SOUTH IN THE LOW BUT WILL KEEP
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT HIGH. SO...WE ARE LOOKING AT A
CONTINUED UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED. HIGHS IN THE LOW-
MID 90S EACH DAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER
70S...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE BEACHES. /23 JMM

&&

.MARINE...THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE VARIABLE CONTINUED LIGHT FLOW
ON SATURDAY AS A PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE
WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD
ONCE AGAIN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MAIN MARINE HAZARD WILL
BE STORMS THAT FORM DAILY AND MOVE FROM LAND TO THE WATER DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. THE ASSOCIATED GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL BRING SUDDEN
SQUALLS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY
WATERSPOUTS. LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. /23 JMM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      76  93  77  91  76 /  60  60  60  50  30
PENSACOLA   78  91  78  89  77 /  60  60  60  40  40
DESTIN      79  89  80  88  79 /  60  60  60  50  40
EVERGREEN   75  95  75  92  74 /  60  60  40  40  40
WAYNESBORO  75  97  75  93  72 /  50  60  40  40  20
CAMDEN      75  96  76  92  74 /  50  60  40  30  20
CRESTVIEW   76  93  76  91  75 /  60  60  40  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BALDWIN CENTRAL-
     BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
     CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-MOBILE CENTRAL-MOBILE
     COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-WASHINGTON-WILCOX.

FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ESCAMBIA COASTAL-
     ESCAMBIA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-OKALOOSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA
     COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-
     PERRY-STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

FLZ202-292115-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL FL-
321 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...COASTAL ESCAMBIA IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 320 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR JOHNSONS BEACH TO NEAR GULF BREEZE...AND
MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PENSACOLA...           GULF BREEZE...         JOHNSONS BEACH...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING WIRED
TELEPHONES DIRECTLY CONNECTED TO OUTSIDE PHONE LINES.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MOBILE.

LAT...LON 3036 8742 3045 8717 3035 8715 3036 8718
      3034 8719 3034 8709 3033 8721 3041 8722
      3037 8732 3037 8726 3033 8727 3032 8721
      3032 8723 3033 8730 3034 8727 3035 8729
      3030 8743
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 359DEG 12KT 3033 8735 3038 8720

BUTTS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
339 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

ALZ059-060-FLZ203-205-292145-
COVINGTON AL-ESCAMBIA AL-SANTA ROSA INLAND FL-OKALOOSA INLAND FL-
339 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...SOUTHERN COVINGTON AND SOUTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA IN SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA AND INLAND OKALOOSA IN
NORTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 338 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OPP...TO CAROLINA...TO NEAR
US 29 AND CR 43...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDALUSIA...           OPP...                 FLORALA...
BABBIE...              LAUREL HILL...         LOCKHART...
CAROLINA...            HORN HILL...           ONYCHA...
LIBERTYVILLE...        US 29 AND CR 43...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING WIRED
TELEPHONES DIRECTLY CONNECTED TO OUTSIDE PHONE LINES.

STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MOBILE.

LAT...LON 3099 8619 3099 8639 3089 8639 3089 8646
      3075 8687 3076 8687 3116 8685 3119 8675
      3118 8672 3119 8672 3119 8670 3122 8670
      3128 8652 3128 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 351DEG 11KT 3122 8616 3123 8651 3114 8677

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