Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
340 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON]...A RIDGE-TROUGH
PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH SITUATED
OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 300 MILES OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TO SHIFT FURTHER EASTWARD. UPPER DISTURBANCES BETWEEN THE
UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN INTACT
WHILE SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...BETWEEN 1.9 AND 2.0
INCHES...OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG...SO KEPT LIKLEY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ONGOING CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE PRIMARILY THREATS. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
PAST MIDNIGHT...AND THEN DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH A CHANCE REMAINING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN POPS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE NORTH OF I-10...WHILE IT REMAINS SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND AREAS WITH
MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 85 TO 90 DEGREES. /22

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY...MAINTAINING THE CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES BACK TO A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AND WILL ALSO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK
INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S. AS A RESULT...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE
BACK TO AROUND 100 BY MID WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MUGGY
WITH LOW 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. /13

&&

.AVIATION...
04.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND
BROKEN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. SHRA/TSRA TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LOCALIZED IN AND NEAR CONVECTION FROM
04.23Z THROUGH 05.03Z...WITH A TEMPO GROUP NOW ADDED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. THE CONVECTION LOOKS MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL LAST THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AND EVEN PAST MIDNIGHT ALONG THE ENTIRE
NORTHERN GULF REGION...SO MAY NEED TO ADD ADDITIONAL TEMPO OR PROB30
GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL...WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. /22

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRETCH FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR STORMS
THAT DEVELOP...BUT LOW SEAS ARE OTHERWISE EXPECTED. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  87  72  88  73 /  70  60  30  30  10
PENSACOLA   75  87  74  86  74 /  60  50  30  40  20
DESTIN      77  86  76  84  75 /  60  50  30  40  20
EVERGREEN   71  86  70  88  70 /  70  60  40  40  20
WAYNESBORO  71  87  70  89  71 /  70  60  40  40  20
CAMDEN      71  85  70  87  70 /  70  70  40  40  20
CRESTVIEW   73  87  71  89  70 /  60  60  40  40  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
554 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-051100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
554 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ISOLATED STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY. DAMAGING
WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AREA
BEACHES SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...
BUT SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR POTENTIAL
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-051100-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
554 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH DAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
406 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW THOMASVILLE        31.89N 87.77W
07/04/2015                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE ON SAND FLAT RD., 3.5
            SW OF THOMASVILLE, AL.

&&

RROGERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
419 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW THOMASVILLE        31.88N 87.77W
07/04/2015                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS TREE DOWN ON POWER LINE ON SAND FLAT RD., 3.5
            SW OF THOMASVILLE, AL.

&&

GENEJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ALZ053>055-042230-
MONROE AL-WILCOX AL-CLARKE AL-
430 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MONROE...SOUTHERN
WILCOX AND EASTERN CLARKE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 430 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WHATLEY...OR 9
MILES EAST OF GROVE HILL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
VREDENBURGH...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM MAY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND A WARNING MAY SOON BE
NEEDED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO OR TV FOR FURTHER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 3164 8726 3160 8767 3177 8772 3191 8733
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 255DEG 22KT 3171 8762

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