Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
341 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

...AN INCREASED RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE...AN UPPER TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUARTER OF
THE CONUS. THE AXIS IS EAST OF THE FA...AND LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
PRECIP DEVELOPMENT OVER THE FA...AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS HELPING
TSRA DEVELOPMENT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF AL...WITH THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE FA SEEING NO DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. AN OUTFLOW EMANATING
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FL PANHANDLE FROM THIS MORNING
IS SPAWNING SOME WEAKER SHRA/TSRA...BUT THESE ARE HAVING A HARD TIME
GAINING ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.

INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT...AM EXPECTING THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY TO EASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BEGINNING TO BUILD WEST OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN GULF
OF MEX. THIS ORGANIZES A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED. SOME OVERNIGHT SHRA/TSRA LIKELY OVER THE GULF...BUT AM
EXPECTING LAND PORTIONS OF THE FA TO BE RAIN FREE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS...LOOKING AT UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S JUST IN
FROM THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEX CONTINUES
TO ORGANIZE...BUILDING THE SURFACE RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF
MEX. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE...WHICH MEANS INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. FOR
LAND PORTIONS OF THE FA...THIS MEANS INCREASING MOISTURE INFLUX FROM
THE GULF...ALONG WITH BUILDING SURF ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD OVER THE FA.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND ADDED UPPER INSTABILITY...AM
EXPECTING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FA TO INCREASE
THURSDAY. WITH INCREASING RAIN COVERAGE...AM EXPECTING TEMPS TO DROP
TO BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA.

WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW...AM EXPECTING SEAS TO BUILD
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW/ASSOCIATED TROF AXIS LOOKS
TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. AT THE
SURFACE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA...EXTENDS FAR TO
THE WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. DEEP MOISTURE HOLDS STRONG
OVER THE LOCAL AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AVERAGING NEAR 1.8
INCHES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR HIGH LAYER MOISTURE AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUMS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...WILL
MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/STORMS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS...AROUND 70 INTERIOR TO MID 70S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES. /10

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...WITH A WELL DEFINED BERMUDA
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW RESULTS IN
POTENTIAL PROBLEMS FOR BEACH GOERS WHO WANT TO ENTER THE SURF THIS
WEEKEND. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION WAVE MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN
WAVE ENERGY PACKETS/LONG PERIOD SWELL (8-10 SECONDS) MOVING NORTHWARD
AND BREAKING ALONG AREA BEACHES FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. THIS INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY
DEADLY RIP CURRENTS. IF HEADING TO THE BEACHES OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...HEED THE ADVICE OF BEACH OFFICIALS AND LOCAL FLAG WARNING
SYSTEMS.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF EARLY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO FILL/WEAKEN
AS UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST RESULT IN DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH BASED RIDGE HOLDS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT FLATTENS SOMEWHAT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE OUTLOOK WITH A
PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST COMPONENT OF FLOW TO CONTINUE. WILL
MAINTAIN AN UPPER END CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS INTO THE
WEEKEND...SLOWLY DIMINISHING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE DEEP
LAYER RIDGING GRADUALLY TAKES A TOLL. DAYTIME HIGHS TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER...FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY/SATURDAY TO THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN
MUGGY...RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S
CLOSE TO AREA BEACHES. /10

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST OVER THE
CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEX. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WITH BUILDING SEAS AND EXERCISE-CAUTION
LEVEL WINDS OVER THE MARINE PORTION OF THE FA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. SOME EASING IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
THE COMING WEEK. BUT MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SEAS...WITH SEA HEIGHTS GETTING INTO SMALL CRAFT LEVEL AT TIMES
FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      70  87  72  87  74 /  30  60  30  60  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  75  88  77 /  30  60  30  40  20
DESTIN      74  83  76  87  77 /  40  60  30  30  20
EVERGREEN   69  87  70  89  71 /  40  60  30  40  20
WAYNESBORO  69  88  69  87  71 /  40  60  30  40  20
CAMDEN      70  89  70  89  71 /  30  60  30  40  20
CRESTVIEW   68  86  71  89  72 /  40  60  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
508 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-111015-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
508 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PERIODS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY AND MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING.

AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-111015-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
508 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.
A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY...AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.