Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1232 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE
THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

UPDATE...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS OUR
INLAND COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS
THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EASTWARD. AS HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FOR TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WHILE AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM THE VICINITY
OF SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MS AND INTO THE THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGION. EARLY MORNING RADAR REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS OUR
REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHWEST AL COAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CANOPY OF
MID/UPPER CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHICH HAS SO FAR LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT. OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT FARTHER TO OUR WEST OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MS AND SOUTHEASTERN LA...BUT THE
LATEST HRRR...NAM AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATES THE BULK OF FOG SHOULD
REMAIN BOTH TO THE WEST AND EAST OF OUR CWFA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER LOW ALSO DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN
TN/KY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS TODAY...AND THE LATEST SHORT
RANGE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH A LIKELY POP FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL WHERE DEEPER
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ORIENTED. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY
LIMITED AGAIN TODAY...BUT A FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED PULSE
SEVERE STORM COULD DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTHEAST MS AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF I-65 WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE TYPICAL BRIEF
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY
RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AND SHORT RANGE MODELS
SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY PUSHING TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH BY LATE
TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP A LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE FORECAST THIS EVENING...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY LATE TONIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOCUSED NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
HIGHS TODAY MAY TREND JUST A LITTLE COOLER DUE TO CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE...BUT STILL TRENDED IN THE MID 80S ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
OVER MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT LOWER 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /21

THE MICROBURST RISK FOR TODAY IS GENERALLY LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING THE UPPER LOW
OVER SITUATED OVER EASTERN TENN MEANDERING EASTWARD A SCOOCH...THEN
STARTING TO MEANDER SOUTH OVER NORTHERN AL/GA. THIS SYSTEM'S WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN AL/GA REMAINS PRETTY
MUCH AS IS. THIS KEEPS THE FA UNDER NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING DRIER AIR MOVING IN OVER MISS./WESTERN AL. THE GFS IS
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE DRIER AIR THAN THE NAM AND ECMWF. THE
RESULT IS A DRIER...SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST THAN THE OTHER TWO
MODELS. EVEN WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW...THICKNESS VALUES ARE BASICALLY
CONSTANT...SO NO COOL ADVECTION WORKS INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR THE FORECAST...THE RESULTANT TEMP DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
GUIDANCE IS A DEGREE OR TWO...SO HAVE BLENDED THE RESULTS. WITH THE
NAM AND ECMWF HANGING ONTO THE MOISTURE MORE THAN THE GFS...HAVE
LEANED THEIR DIRECTION WITH RESPECT TO POPS...HANGING ON TO HIGHER
GULF- BREEZE INITIATED POPS CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AFTER MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE EASTERN TENN RIVER VALLEY
FOR A FEW DAYS...THE EASTERN UPPER LOW GETS AN EASTWARD SHOVE FROM AN
UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE PLAINS AS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BY FRIDAY MORN...THE EASTERN SYSTEM HAS
MOVED OVER THE CAROLINAS...LEAVING A WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. WITH THE FA COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...TEMPS RISE TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH ANY SHOWERS OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE COAST OR
OVER EASTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF THE FA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER SYSTEM.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN SYSTEM JOINS WITH MORE
UPPER ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS TO FORM AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. AS MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS THE
PLAINS RIDGE AND STARTS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE LOWER MISS
RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WORKING
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...TEMPS REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM.
WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE ALSO COMES AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF
RAIN...TO AROUND SEASONAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING LEVELS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A STRONG SHORTWAVEMOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF
IS ADVERTISING A MUCH SLOWER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE SYSTEM. THE RESULT IS
A WETTER SCENARIO IN THE GFS AS THE UPPER ENERGY PASSES NORTHEAST OF
THE FA. THE RESULTANT TEMPS BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS ARE WITH A COUPLE
OF DEGREES...SO HAVE JUST SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. FOR POPS...THE GFS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER. WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES IN THE MIDDLE...HAVE
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AGAIN...WITH NEAR SEASONAL SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE RESULT.

AVIATION...
01.12Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION... VFR CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY ARE
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS. MOSTLY VFR
CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THOUGH MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. /21

MARINE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEK...AND THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW EACH DAY...
WITH THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS NEARSHORE WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZE. SEAS
WILL REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  87  68  89  68 /  40  30  30  30  10
PENSACOLA   71  86  71  88  72 /  40  30  30  30  10
DESTIN      72  84  72  86  74 /  40  40  30  30  10
EVERGREEN   65  87  65  90  67 /  40  30  30  30  05
WAYNESBORO  65  87  64  89  64 /  30  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      65  86  64  89  66 /  40  20  20  30  10
CRESTVIEW   66  89  65  91  65 /  40  40  30  30  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1050 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-021100-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1050 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA
AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE NEAR THE DAILY SEABREEZE. GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-021100-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1050 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE
AREA EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS...LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1057 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1043 AM     WATER SPOUT      4 S PENSACOLA NAVAL BAS 30.30N 87.27W
06/01/2015                   GMZ650             FL   PUBLIC

&&

JOHNP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1257 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

ALZ052-261-011900-
MOBILE INLAND AL-WASHINGTON AL-
1257 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN MOBILE AND
SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 1257 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR AXIS...OR
NEAR CREOLA...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CREOLA...              MOUNT VERNON...
MOWA CHOCTAW RESERVATION...                   CHUNCHULA...
AXIS...                BUCKS...               I65 AND US 43...
MOVICO...              CALVERT...             MALCOLM...
LAMBERT GROVE...       SALCO...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING WIRED
TELEPHONES DIRECTLY CONNECTED TO OUTSIDE PHONE LINES.

LAT...LON 3089 8822 3125 8820 3121 8795 3116 8794
      3116 8797 3115 8797 3115 8794 3112 8795
      3109 8797 3107 8796 3107 8795 3108 8794
      3086 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 189DEG 11KT 3095 8811

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