Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
424 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND FRIDAY]...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED
WITHIN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. LINE OF STRONG CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BRING CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST AL WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE PANHANDLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE COVERAGE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHES. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AND PERHAPS ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS
OVER 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
STALL NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY. A LINGERING LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH TONIGHT. AN AXIS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED OVER SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500-2000
J/KG WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. /21

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW AND COOLER...DRIER AIR
WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
COAST. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON
THE SOUTHWARD SPEED OF THE FRONT...SUSPECT IT WILL BE OVER THE MARINE
AREA BY EARLY EVENING THURSDAY. EXPECT A RELATIVELY PLEASANT COOL
MORNING FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S MOST
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL
WITH MOST SITES PEAKING OUT IN THE MID 80S. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AS ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
GRADIENT TO KEEP THE SEA BREEZE CONFINED TO THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. /08 JW

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...EXPECT ANOTHER COOL
MORNING SATURDAY AS A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
PREVAILS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SEA BOARD
CONTINUES TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS AND ALOFT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTION BUT ENOUGH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AND A DEEP ENOUGH SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO TRIGGER SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT BUT THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD OPENING UP REGION TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENERGY SO
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT EACH
DAY AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME HIGHS AND LOWS WILL
GENERALLY TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY AFTER SATURDAY
MORNING. /08 JW

&&

.AVIATION... 20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION... VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY
BROKEN CUMULUS FIELDS WITH BASES AROUND 4000 FT AGL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND IFR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
STORMS. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS COULD DEVELOP OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THURSDAY AM. CONFIDENCE
ON OCCURRENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF LOCAL TAF/S. /21

&&

.MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS
WEEKEND. FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SETS UP ALONG WITH INCREASING
SEAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      69  90  64  85  63 /  40  50  20  20  10
PENSACOLA   74  89  67  85  67 /  20  40  20  20  05
DESTIN      75  86  68  83  69 /  20  30  20  20  05
EVERGREEN   68  89  62  86  61 /  40  40  10  10  05
WAYNESBORO  68  85  61  84  61 /  50  40  10  10  05
CAMDEN      68  85  63  83  61 /  50  30  10  10  05
CRESTVIEW   69  92  62  87  61 /  30  40  10  20  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
113 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-211715-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
113 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-211715-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
113 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...OCCURRING MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

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