Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Mobile, AL

791 
WWUS54 KMOB 202146
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
446 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MSC039-111-131-202155-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0038.000000T0000Z-150520T2200Z/
GEORGE MS-STONE MS-PERRY MS-
446 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL GEORGE...
NORTHEASTERN STONE AND SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTIES HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

AT 445 PM CDT...THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL 
GEORGE...NORTHEASTERN STONE AND SOUTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTIES HAS 
WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CALL (800) 284-9059.

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8908 3094 8883 3077 8885 3077 8889
      3078 8890 3090 8911
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 286DEG 22KT 3087 8884 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
107 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TOWERING CUMULUS
ALONG THE ADVANCING SEABREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST...WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MEANWHILE DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MS. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FROM THE WEST ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUING ALONG THE SEABREEZE. WE HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS A BIT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. /21

&&

.AVIATION...
20.18Z TERMINAL FORECAST DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED
TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS FIELDS WITH BASES AROUND 4000 FT AGL
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TSRA WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. BRIEF STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND IFR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS.
LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS COULD DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MS AND SOUTHWEST AL EARLY THURSDAY AM. CONFIDENCE ON
OCCURRENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF LOCAL TAF/S. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015/

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING OVER MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. TO THE WEST LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE NEXT MID
LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY ALONG WITH SFC
BASED CAPES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 2800 J/KG BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE STATEMENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING. LIKE EARLIER IN THE WEEK WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
STILL NOT ANTICIPATED THOUGH WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLY BECOMING BRIEFLY SEVERE. GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WILL LIKELY SEE
MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ALSO THIS
MORNING THOUGH NOT AS MUCH COVERAGE AS YESTERDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL
LEAN VERY CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
MOSTLY FROM PERSISTENCE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S CLOSE TO THE
COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND
THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY...APPROACHING THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH A NARROW STRIP OF DEEP MOISTURE AND ALONG
WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY...SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES...LOOK TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE. DAYTIME
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INTERIOR. MID 80S CLOSER TO
THE BEACHES.

LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
ADVANCING ACROSS THE WESTERN US ON FRIDAY...SHARPENS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN AMPLIFICATION
OF DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF. WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH BUILDING RIDGE AND
BETTER SINKING MOTIONS ON SATURDAY...CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR
MINIMAL (AT OR LESS THAN 10%). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIPS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY...CAUSING DEEP GULF MOISTURE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD OFF THE
GULF. UNFORTUNATELY...BARBECUES ON SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY MAY BE
BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS/STORMS. THE POSITION
OF THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST PUTS THE LOCAL AREA IN A FAVORED ZONE
WHERE MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE OUT OF EAST TEXAS AND UP ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A BETTER ESTABLISHED SURFACE HIGH
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHEAST SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT TIMES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 86 TO 91 OVER THE INTERIOR...LOWER
HALF OF THE 80S CLOSER TO BEACHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE BACK INTO
THE LOWER/MID 70S BY THE LATTER END OF THE OUTLOOK. /10

MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BE MAINTAINED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TONIGHT THEN BECOME REINFORCED THU THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF EARLY THU FOLLOWED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...STRETCHING WEST. A
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE THU
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME REESTABLISHED OVER THE WEEKEND THEN BUILD LATE SUN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES GENERALLY FROM
NORTH TO THE SOUTH. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      89  69  90  65  85 /  40  30  50  20  20
PENSACOLA   89  73  89  69  85 /  30  20  40  20  20
DESTIN      89  75  87  71  85 /  30  20  40  20  10
EVERGREEN   90  69  91  62  86 /  40  40  30  10  10
WAYNESBORO  89  68  87  62  84 /  50  40  30  10  10
CAMDEN      89  69  87  62  83 /  40  40  20  10  10
CRESTVIEW   92  70  93  66  88 /  30  30  40  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
113 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-211715-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
113 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER
INTERIOR AREAS. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...WITH GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURSDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE EACH AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-211715-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
113 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...OCCURRING MOSTLY ALONG THE COAST
AND OVER INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
231 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

ALZ051-052-MSZ067-202030-
WASHINGTON AL-CHOCTAW AL-WAYNE MS-
231 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON...CHOCTAW AND WAYNE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 229 PM CDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM BLUFFPORT TO NEAR OVETT...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WAYNESBORO...          BUTLER...              LISMAN...
SILAS...               PENNINGTON...          GILBERTOWN...
TOXEY...               NEEDHAM...             BUCKATUNNA...
CLARA...               PELHAM...              BELMONT...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3231 8795 3228 8802 3217 8801 3215 8802
      3214 8804 3209 8805 3205 8812 3199 8810
      3201 8809 3199 8807 3150 8850 3150 8894
      3180 8894 3183 8892 3185 8865 3190 8847
      3231 8842
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 306DEG 23KT 3259 8813 3148 8908

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
325 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MSZ075-202115-
PERRY MS-
325 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 321 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES WEST OF
RICHTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RICHTON...             NEW AUGUSTA...         CORINTH...
FERGUSON...            HERCULES STATION...    MCSWAIN...
GOOD HOPE...           MAHNED...              RUNNELSTOWN...
TALLAHALA...           INDIAN SPRINGS...      HINTONVILLE...

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND VERY HEAVY RAINS.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED. REMEMBER...IF YOU
CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3143 8915 3143 8908 3142 8891 3113 8893
      3117 8915
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 276DEG 14KT 3130 8915

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
333 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

ALZ051-202100-
CHOCTAW AL-
333 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CHOCTAW COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM CDT...

AT 333 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF GILBERTOWN TO NEAR BUTLER TO NEAR
PENNINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BUTLER...              LISMAN...              PENNINGTON...
GILBERTOWN...          TOXEY...               NEEDHAM...
PELHAM...              HODGEWOOD...           LAND...
PLEASANT HILL...       MOUNT STERLING...      CHAPPELL HILL...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THESE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING WIRED
TELEPHONES DIRECTLY CONNECTED TO OUTSIDE PHONE LINES.

LAT...LON 3231 8793 3228 8793 3230 8794 3230 8798
      3228 8802 3218 8801 3214 8804 3209 8804
      3206 8807 3207 8810 3205 8812 3201 8811
      3198 8806 3196 8808 3195 8812 3194 8810
      3180 8823 3185 8847 3207 8845 3231 8828
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 281DEG 25KT 3191 8842 3213 8825 3228 8804