River Flood Warning 59, NWS Mobile, AL

948 
WGUS84 KMOB 270411
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
 

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Alabama...
Florida...
 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and 
  Santa Rosa Counties.
  
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
Mississippi...
 
  Perdido River Near Barrineau Park affecting Baldwin and Escambia Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties. 
  Conecuh River At River Falls affecting Covington...Crenshaw and Escambia 
  Counties. 
  Yellow River At Milligan affecting Covington...Okaloosa and Santa Rosa 
  Counties. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 
  Murder Creek At Brewton affecting Escambia County. 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 
  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Clarke...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties. 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along these rivers. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-280411-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.151226T1825Z.151231T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until further notice.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 69.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 77.1 feet by Wednesday evening then 
  begin falling.


&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$

ALC025-099-131-280411-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.2.ER.151227T0055Z.160101T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam
* until further notice.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 42.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 42 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 50.3 feet by Thursday evening.  
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
 3114 8797 3150 8766                  

$$

ALC053-271200-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-151227T1200Z/
/BWMA1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151226T2230Z.151227T0600Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Murder Creek At Brewton
* until Sunday morning.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 22.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by after midnight 
  tomorrow.
* At 22.4 feet, Street flooding in brewton should gradually end as the creek 
levels falls below 22 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8704 3113 8701 3107 8709 3108 8713


$$

ALC003-FLC033-280411-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0058.000000T0000Z-151228T2000Z/
/BRPF1.1.ER.151226T0448Z.151226T2300Z.151228T1400Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Monday afternoon...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Perdido River Near Barrineau Park
* until Monday afternoon.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 15 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Monday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3080 8761 3080 8756 3065 8737 3051 8744
 3052 8746 3064 8740                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-280411-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0055.151227T2320Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.151227T2320Z.160101T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until further notice...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From tomorrow afternoon until further notice.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 25.9 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and continue to rise 
  near 35.6 feet by Thursday evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-280411-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0056.151228T0325Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.151228T0325Z.160101T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until further notice...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From tomorrow late evening until further notice.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 20.6 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late evening and continue to 
  rise near 27.6 feet by Thursday evening. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8806 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

ALC039-041-053-280411-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-151228T2236Z/
/RVFA1.1.ER.151225T1348Z.151226T1030Z.151228T1636Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Monday afternoon...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Conecuh River At River Falls
* until Monday afternoon.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 40.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 37 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 40.3 feet by after midnight tomorrow. 
  The river will fall below flood stage  late Monday morning.
* At 40 feet, Considerable flooding of farmlands and some rural roads in the 
area will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3137 8653 3132 8649 3111 8676 3118 8680


$$

ALC039-053-280411-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.151226T1945Z.151229T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Conecuh River At Brewton
* until further notice.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 27.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 27 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 29.2 feet by Tuesday early afternoon 
  then begin falling.
* At 27 feet, Flooding of farmland in the area will occur and cattle should be 
moved to higher ground if this has not already been done.  

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

ALC053-FLC033-280411-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.151224T0452Z.151230T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* until further notice.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 19.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 21.1 feet by Wednesday early afternoon 
  then begin falling.
* At 19.5 feet, Flooding of farm and pasture lands will gradually subside as the 
river level drops, but some flooding will continue the next several days.  

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

ALC039-FLC091-113-280411-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-151228T1832Z/
/MLGF1.1.ER.151226T0436Z.151227T1200Z.151228T1232Z.UU/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Monday afternoon...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Yellow River At Milligan
* until Monday afternoon.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 14.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 14.6 feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage  Monday morning.
* At 14.4 feet, Flooding in old milligan will subside as the level drops below 14 
feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8658 3099 8652 3069 8663 3069 8667


$$

MSC039-041-111-280411-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-151230T1200Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.151225T1211Z.151225T1830Z.151230T0600Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 12PM Friday the stage was 19 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early Wednesday 
  morning.
* At 19 feet, Flooding of lowlands and agricultural land will subside as the 
water level drops below 18 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-280411-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160101T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.151225T2021Z.151228T1800Z.151231T1800Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Thursday evening...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Thursday evening.
* At 09PM Saturday the stage was 21.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.5 feet by Monday early afternoon. 
  The river will fall below flood stage  Thursday early afternoon.
* At 22 feet, Flooding of lowlands in the area will continue and some roads in 
low lying areas will become cut off by high water.  

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-270441-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151227T0530Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.151224T1619Z.151225T1601Z.151227T0119Z.UU/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING is CANCELLED for
  The Blackwater River Near Baker
* until this evening.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 10.7 feet. 
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* Water levels along the Blackwater River near Baker are expected to continue to fall.  

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
618 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION BELOW.

&&

.UPDATE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LOWER PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 9 AM CST. FOG LIFTS SLOWLY THROUGH NOON.
32/EE

&&

.MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON SUNDAY FOR THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NM INCLUDING ALL INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 27.12Z. DENSE FOG
AND LOW CIGS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
INLAND AFFECTING ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 27.12Z. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 9 TO 16 KNOTS THROUGH 27.12Z.
32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...PERSISTENT FOG OVER THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SPREAD INLAND AFFECTING
AREAS GENERALLY FROM CRESTVIEW FL TO WIGGINS MS. ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS
ARE NOTED IN THE OBS IN THESE AREAS DENSE FOG REDEVELOPS DUE TO THE
ADVECTIVE NATURE...FORMING NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THEN SPREADING
NORTHWARD DUE TO A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE LOWER PART OF THE
FA. DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH MOST
OF THE TODAY AND TONIGHT...ERODING SLOWLY OVER LAND AREAS THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
LATER THIS MORNING. FOR TODAY EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING AND VERTICAL
SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE FA IN THE LAST 36
HOURS THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO 5K FT
OR 850 MB FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWARD WITH THE MEAN
FLOW. LATEST SPC MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS MIXED LAYER CAPES AROUND 1500
J/KG OVER MOST OF THE MARINE AREA THIS MORNING STRETCHING INLAND
GENERALLY OVER AND WEST OF MOBILE BAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS FURTHER
WEST EARLY TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND SPREADS INLAND ALONG
THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MAKING A FEW TWEAKS MOSTLY TO THE WEST DUE TO
PRECIP AND CONSISTENCY WITH OTHER WFOS. HIGHS TODAY WILL CLIMB TO
THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE MID
TO UPPER 70S CLOSE TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL TO THE MID
60S FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA AND THE UPPER 60S TO THE
WEST AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 32/EE

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF TX SUNDAY...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO STRETCH FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE FL PENINSULA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS OUR REGION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANWHILE REMAIN
POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
MAINTAINING A VERY MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR
AREA. IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AIDING IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FAVORED OVER
SOUTHEAST MS AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST AL. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF FOG MAY
LINGER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED
WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN RECORD TERRITORY WITH READINGS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES.

THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF TX SUNDAY EVENING...THEN TOWARD THE ARKLATEX VICINITY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS LA AND TOWARD THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY EVENING...AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE OF MISSISSIPPI BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. A DIFFLUENT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AHEAD OF THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ALONG WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL AID IN DEEP LAYER FORCING
AND AN ASSOCIATED ORGANIZING LINEAR CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE STILL ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS
THIS MORNING. THE GFS IS QUICKEST WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE LINE WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE A LITTLE SLOWER. WE HAVE OPTED
TO TREND THE FORECAST A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF DEPICTION. WE WILL
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA GOING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT WILL RAMP UP POPS TO LIKELY COVERAGE OVER
SOUTHWEST AL...AND WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM AS THE LINE APPROACHES. WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY MORNING AS THE LINE MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS OVER THE AREA...WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN WITH THE LINE
GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SATURATED SOILS ACROSS THE AREA...SO THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF ADDITIONAL FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING. FORTUNATELY THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...SO THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR A
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
GIVEN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A STRENGTHENING 40-50 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. ISOLATED TORNADOES...
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE OF CONCERN...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE GRAPHICS AND HWO.
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY MAY OCCUR IN THE MORNING WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LINGERING LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 OVER
WESTERN AREAS AND THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 GENERALLY EAST OF I-65. /21

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAINTAINING A RATHER MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION DURING THE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AND THE PERSISTENT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...MOST NOTABLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MOISTURE AXIS FINALLY LOOKS TO PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING OFF INTO THE
40S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE 50S. /21

MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO FORM OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS OUT TO 20 NM INCLUDING ALL INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS
THROUGH SUNDAY. A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN BUILD LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET OFFSHORE
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD AND ALONG THE
FRONT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT NEARS FROM THE WEST. A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BUILDS
LATER IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF. 32/EE

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ057>060-
     261>266.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ201>205.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ078-079.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>635-650-655.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
535 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-271145-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
535 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WILL ERODE SLOWLY THROUGH MID MORNING. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AREAS OF DENSE FOG MOSTLY OVER THE LOWER HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE A CONCERN

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA...SO THERE WILL BE A RISK OF ADDITIONAL
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING. FORTUNATELY THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE...SO THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CALLING FOR A GENERAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-271145-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
535 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR WATERS OUT TO 20 NM
INCLUDING ALL INLAND BAYS AND SOUNDS THROUGH TONIGHT. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OUT TO 20
NM THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD AND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY MOSTLY AHEAD
AND ALONG THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE MARINE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEK. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
OFFSHORE FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK.