River Flood Warning 46, NWS Mobile, AL

153 
WGUS84 KMOB 241626
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1026 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Big Escambia Creek At Flomaton affecting Escambia County. 
  
  Perdido River Near Barrineau Park affecting Baldwin and Escambia Counties. 
  
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties. 
  
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa Counties. 
  
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County.
  
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-251626-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0041.151225T0600Z-151226T0000Z/
/FLMA1.1.ER.151225T0600Z.151225T0600Z.151225T1800Z.NO/
1026 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Friday evening...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Big Escambia Creek At Flomaton
* From after midnight tomorrow until Friday evening.
* At 8AM Thursday the stage was estimated at 12.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 14 feet.
* The river will continue rising to 14 feet overnight Friday. The river will fall
  below flood stage by Saturday evening.
* At 14 feet...Some homes north of highway 31 may become affected by flood water 
  as the river level rises.  

&&

LAT...LON 3106 8731 3099 8722 3098 8724 3104 8733


$$

ALC003-FLC033-251626-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-151226T1200Z/
/BRPF1.1.ER.151224T0718Z.151224T1800Z.151226T0600Z.NO/
1026 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Saturday morning...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Perdido River Near Barrineau Park
* until Saturday morning.
* At 8AM Thursday the stage was 13.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 13.6 feet by this afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage early Saturday morning.
* At 13 feet...The river begins to leave its banks at the parking lot of Adventures 
  Unlimited and threatens several permanently parked travel trailers.  

&&

LAT...LON 3080 8761 3080 8756 3065 8737 3051 8744
 3052 8746 3064 8740                  

$$

ALC039-053-251626-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0040.151227T1800Z-000000T0000Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.151227T1800Z.151229T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1026 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until further notice...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Conecuh River At Brewton
* From Sunday early afternoon until further notice.
* At 8AM Thursday the stage was 24.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 27 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Sunday early afternoon and continue to 
  rise near 27.7 feet by Tuesday morning. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 27 feet...Flooding of farmland in the area will occur and cattle should be moved
  to higher ground.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

ALC053-FLC033-251626-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.151224T0452Z.151226T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1026 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* until further notice.
* At 9AM Thursday the stage was 17.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 19.1 feet by tomorrow evening then 
  begin falling.
* At 19 feet...Low lying pastures will flood and cattle should be moved to higher ground. 

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-251626-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0046.151224T1551Z-151227T0025Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.151224T1551Z.151225T1200Z.151226T1825Z.UU/
1026 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Saturday evening...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* From late this morning until Saturday evening.
* At 9AM Thursday the stage was 10.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue to rise 
  near 13.8 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage by 
  Saturday afternoon.
* At 11 feet...Some minor flooding of secondary roads and lowlands from around 
  baker downstream will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

FLC091-251626-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0037.151225T1800Z-151228T1800Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.151225T1800Z.151226T1800Z.151228T1200Z.NO/
1026 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Monday afternoon...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From tomorrow early afternoon until Monday afternoon.
* At 8AM Thursday the stage was 7.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon and continue to
  rise near 8.4 feet by Saturday early afternoon. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Monday morning.
* At 8 feet...Some minor flooding of low lying areas will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

396 
WGUS84 KMOB 250311
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
911 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Big Escambia Creek At Flomaton affecting Escambia County. 
  Perdido River Near Barrineau Park affecting Baldwin and Escambia Counties. 
  Styx River Near Elsanor affecting Baldwin County. 
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties. 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa Counties. 
  Shoal River Near Crestview affecting Okaloosa County. 
  Yellow River At Milligan affecting Covington...Okaloosa and Santa Rosa 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 


SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-260311-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-151229T0130Z/
/FLMA1.3.ER.151224T1958Z.151225T1800Z.151228T1930Z.NO/
911 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Monday evening...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Big Escambia Creek At Flomaton
* until Monday evening.
* At 8PM Thursday the stage was 15.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 14 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 18.9 feet by tomorrow early afternoon. 
  The river will fall below flood stage by early afternoon Monday.
* Residential flooding will occur in flomaton and some evacuations will likely be needed.


&&

LAT...LON 3106 8731 3099 8722 3098 8724 3104 8733


$$

ALC003-252304-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0045.000000T0000Z-151225T2304Z/
/STXA1.2.ER.151224T0127Z.151224T2000Z.151225T1704Z.NO/
911 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Friday afternoon...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Styx River Near Elsanor
* until Friday afternoon.
* At 8PM Thursday the stage was 14.3 feet. 
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow late morning.
* Residence downstream at seminole landing should be alert to possible flooding as the gage rises to
  12 feet. 

&&

LAT...LON 3063 8758 3060 8749 3057 8751 3062 8759


$$

ALC003-FLC033-260311-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-151227T0515Z/
/BRPF1.1.ER.151224T0718Z.151226T0600Z.151226T2315Z.NO/
911 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Saturday evening...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Perdido River Near Barrineau Park
* From early tomorrow until Saturday evening.
* At 7PM Thursday the stage was 12.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue to rise near
  14.4 feet by early Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by noon on Saturday.
* At 13 feet...the river begins to leave it's banks at the parking lot of adventures 
  unlimited and threatens several permanently parked travel trailers.  

&&

LAT...LON 3080 8761 3080 8756 3065 8737 3051 8744
 3052 8746 3064 8740                  

$$

ALC039-053-260311-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0040.151227T0300Z-000000T0000Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.151227T0300Z.151230T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
911 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until further notice...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Conecuh River At Brewton
* From Saturday before midnight until further notice.
* At 8PM Thursday the stage was 25.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 27 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday before midnight and continue to
  rise near 28.8 feet by Tuesday evening. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.
* At 27 feet...Flooding of farmland in the area will occur and cattle should be 
  moved to higher ground if this has not already been done.  

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-260310-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151227T0524Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.151224T1619Z.151225T1200Z.151226T2324Z.UU/
911 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Saturday evening...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* until Saturday evening.
* At 8PM Thursday the stage was 13.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 14.1 feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Saturday afternoon.
* At 14 feet...Flooding of east park in Baker occurs at 14 feet and west park 
  becomes flooded at 14.5 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

FLC091-260310-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0037.151227T0000Z-151227T0600Z/
/CRVF1.1.ER.151227T0000Z.151227T0000Z.151227T0000Z.NO/
911 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until late Saturday night...The FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES for
  the Shoal River Near Crestview
* From Saturday evening until late Saturday night.
* At 8PM Thursday the stage was 7.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 8 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday evening and continue to rise to
  near 8 feet by Saturday evening. The river will fall below flood stage by early 
  Sunday morning.
* At 8 feet...Some minor flooding of low lying areas will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3078 8650 3078 8649 3069 8653 3069 8663
 3070 8663 3070 8655                  

$$

ALC039-FLC091-113-260310-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0049.151226T1950Z-151228T1830Z/
/MLGF1.1.ER.151226T1950Z.151227T1800Z.151228T1230Z.UU/
911 PM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Monday afternoon...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Yellow River At Milligan
* From Saturday early afternoon until Monday afternoon.
* At 8PM Thursday the stage was 7.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Saturday early afternoon and continue to
  rise near 14.7 feet by Sunday early afternoon. The river will fall below flood
  stage by early Monday afternoon.
* At 14.5 feet...Antioch road will flood. 

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8658 3099 8652 3069 8663 3069 8667


$$

383 
WGUS84 KMOB 250747
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
147 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-260747-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151227T0600Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.151224T1619Z.151225T1800Z.151227T0000Z.UU/
147 AM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until late Saturday evening...The FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* until late Saturday evening.
* At 1 AM Friday the stage was 14.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 15.0 feet by this afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage late Saturday evening.
At 14.0 feet, Flooding of east park in Baker occurs at 14 feet and west park 
becomes flooded at 14.5 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

435 
WGUS84 KMOB 251947
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
147 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa Counties. 
  Yellow River At Milligan affecting Covington...Okaloosa and Santa Rosa 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-261947-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151227T0717Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.151224T1619Z.151225T1601Z.151227T0117Z.UU/
147 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until late Saturday night...The FLOOD WARNING 
CONTINUES for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* until late Saturday night.
* At 01PM Friday the stage was 14.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow evening.
At 14.5 feet, Flooding of west park and east park in baker will subside as the 
river drops below 14 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

ALC039-FLC091-113-261947-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0049.151226T0810Z-151228T0600Z/
/MLGF1.1.ER.151226T0810Z.151227T0600Z.151228T0000Z.UU/
147 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until late Sunday night...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Yellow River At Milligan
* From after midnight tomorrow until late Sunday night.
* At 01PM Friday the stage was 9.9 feet. 
* Noflooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight tomorrow and continue to 
  rise near 14.4 feet by early Sunday morning. The river will fall below flood 
  stage by Sunday evening.
* At 14.4 feet, flooding in old Milligan will subside as the river drops below 14 feet.
&&

LAT...LON 3099 8658 3099 8652 3069 8663 3069 8667


$$

980 
WGUS84 KMOB 260350
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
950 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Big Escambia Creek At Flomaton affecting Escambia County. 
  Murder Creek At Brewton affecting Escambia County. 
  Conecuh River At River Falls affecting Covington...Crenshaw and Escambia 
  Counties. 
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties. 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa Counties. 
  Yellow River At Milligan affecting Covington...Okaloosa and Santa Rosa 
  Counties. 
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Burnt Corn Creek Near Brewton affecting Escambia County. 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 


SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-270350-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0041.000000T0000Z-151227T1520Z/
/FLMA1.1.ER.151224T1958Z.151226T1800Z.151227T0920Z.NO/
950 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Sunday morning...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Big Escambia Creek At Flomaton
* From tonight until Sunday morning.
* At 9PM Friday the stage was 14 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 14 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise near 15.7 
  feet by tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* At 14 feet...Some homes north of highway 31 may become affected by flood water 
  as the level rises above 14 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3106 8731 3099 8722 3098 8724 3104 8733


$$

ALC053-261500-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0054.000000T0000Z-151226T1500Z/
/BCNA1.1.ER.151225T1245Z.151225T1900Z.151226T0900Z.NO/
950 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Burnt Corn Creek Near Brewton
* until Saturday morning.
* At 8PM Friday the stage was 16.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 16 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early tomorrow.
* At 16 feet...Flood stage. Persimmon and Ann Street start to flood. Ballfield on
  left bank of creek is flooded. This also a criticle stage for Crede foundry in 
  Brewton.  

&&

LAT...LON 3117 8713 3118 8707 3111 8705 3108 8709


$$

ALC053-261104-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0057.000000T0000Z-151226T1104Z/
/BWMA1.1.ER.151225T2034Z.151226T0230Z.151226T0504Z.NO/
950 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until late tonight...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Murder Creek At Brewton
* until late tonight.
* At 8PM Friday the stage was 22.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tonight.
* At 22.5 feet...Street flooding in Brewton should gradually end as the creek 
  levels fall below 22 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8704 3113 8701 3107 8709 3108 8713


$$

ALC039-041-053-270349-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-151228T1052Z/
/RVFA1.1.ER.151225T1348Z.151227T0000Z.151228T0452Z.NO/
950 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until late Sunday night...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Conecuh River At River Falls
* until late Sunday night.
* At 8PM Friday the stage was 40.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 37 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 42.8 feet by tomorrow evening. The 
  river will fall below flood stage Sunday around midnight.
* At 40 feet...Considerable flooding of farmlands and some rural roads in the 
  area will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3137 8653 3132 8649 3111 8676 3118 8680


$$

ALC039-053-270349-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0040.151226T1400Z-000000T0000Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.151226T1400Z.151229T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
950 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until further notice...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Conecuh River At Brewton
* From tomorrow morning until further notice.
* At 8PM Friday the stage was 26.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 27 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue to rise 
  near 29.1 feet by Tuesday early afternoon.
* At 27 feet...Flooding of farmland in the area will occur and cattle should be 
  moved to higher ground if this has not already been done.  

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

ALC053-FLC033-270349-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.151224T0452Z.151230T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
950 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* until further notice.
* At 9PM Friday the stage was 19 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 21 feet by Monday early afternoon 
  then begin falling.
* At 19 feet...Low lying pastures will flood and cattle should be moved to higher
  ground.  

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-270246-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151227T0246Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.151224T1619Z.151225T1601Z.151226T2046Z.UU/
950 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Saturday evening...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* until Saturday evening.
* At 9PM Friday the stage was 14.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by tomorrow early 
  afternoon.
* At 14 feet...Flooding of east park in Baker occurs and west park 
  becomes flooded at 14.5 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

ALC039-FLC091-113-270349-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0049.151226T0520Z-151228T2248Z/
/MLGF1.1.ER.151226T0520Z.151227T0000Z.151228T1648Z.UU/
950 PM CST FRI DEC 25 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Monday afternoon...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Yellow River At Milligan
* From tonight until Monday afternoon.
* At 9PM Friday the stage was 11.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise near 14.7 
  feet by tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage by Monday evening.
* At 14.5 feet...Antioch road will flood.  

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8658 3099 8652 3069 8663 3069 8667


$$

193 
WGUS84 KMOB 261745
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1145 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and Santa
  Rosa Counties. 
  Yellow River At Milligan affecting Covington...Okaloosa and Santa Rosa 
  Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-270530-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151227T0530Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.151224T1619Z.151225T1601Z.151226T2330Z.UU/
1145 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until this evening...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Blackwater River Near Baker
* until this evening.
* At 11AM Saturday the stage was 12.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late this afternoon.
* At 12.0 feet, Flooding of secondary roads and lowlands will subside as the river
  drops below 12 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

ALC039-FLC091-113-271744-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-151228T1000Z/
/MLGF1.1.ER.151226T0436Z.151227T0000Z.151228T0400Z.UU/
1145 AM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until late Sunday night...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Yellow River At Milligan
* until late Sunday night.
* At 11AM Saturday the stage was 13.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 14.5 feet by this evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage  tomorrow late evening.
* At 14.0 feet, Some houses in old milligan will become flooded and some 
  evacuations could become necessary.  

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8658 3099 8652 3069 8663 3069 8667


$$

948 
WGUS84 KMOB 270411
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015
 

...The flood warning is cancelled for the following rivers in Alabama...
Florida...
 
  Blackwater River Near Baker affecting Covington...Escambia...Okaloosa and 
  Santa Rosa Counties.
  
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
Mississippi...
 
  Perdido River Near Barrineau Park affecting Baldwin and Escambia Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington 
  Counties. 
  Tombigbee River Near Leroy affecting Choctaw...Clarke and Washington Counties. 
  Conecuh River At River Falls affecting Covington...Crenshaw and Escambia 
  Counties. 
  Yellow River At Milligan affecting Covington...Okaloosa and Santa Rosa 
  Counties. 
  Chickasawhay At Leakesville affecting George...Greene and Wayne Counties. 
  Murder Creek At Brewton affecting Escambia County. 
  Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam affecting Dallas...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 
  Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam affecting Clarke...Monroe and Wilcox 
  Counties. 
  Conecuh River At Brewton affecting Covington and Escambia Counties. 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 
  Leaf Near Mclain affecting George...Greene and Perry Counties. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along these rivers. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC047-099-131-280411-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0051.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MRFA1.1.ER.151226T1825Z.151231T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Alabama River Near Millers Ferry Dam
* until further notice.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 69.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 66 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 77.1 feet by Wednesday evening then 
  begin falling.


&&

LAT...LON 3215 8726 3205 8719 3203 8732 3184 8738
 3184 8756 3215 8749                  

$$

ALC025-099-131-280411-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLBA1.2.ER.151227T0055Z.160101T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Alabama River Near Claiborne Dam
* until further notice.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 42.3 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 42 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 50.3 feet by Thursday evening.  
  Additional rises may be possible thereafter.


&&

LAT...LON 3184 8756 3184 8738 3146 8753 3114 8786
 3114 8797 3150 8766                  

$$

ALC053-271200-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-151227T1200Z/
/BWMA1.1.ER.000000T0000Z.151226T2230Z.151227T0600Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Murder Creek At Brewton
* until Sunday morning.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 22.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 22 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by after midnight 
  tomorrow.
* At 22.4 feet, Street flooding in brewton should gradually end as the creek 
levels falls below 22 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8704 3113 8701 3107 8709 3108 8713


$$

ALC003-FLC033-280411-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0058.000000T0000Z-151228T2000Z/
/BRPF1.1.ER.151226T0448Z.151226T2300Z.151228T1400Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Monday afternoon...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Perdido River Near Barrineau Park
* until Monday afternoon.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 15 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by Monday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3080 8761 3080 8756 3065 8737 3051 8744
 3052 8746 3064 8740                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-280411-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0055.151227T2320Z-000000T0000Z/
/CLDA1.1.ER.151227T2320Z.160101T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until further notice...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Tombigbee River Near Coffeeville Dam
* From tomorrow afternoon until further notice.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 25.9 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 29 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and continue to rise 
  near 35.6 feet by Thursday evening. Additional rises are possible thereafter.

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8803 3232 8791 3178 8809 3160 8806
 3160 8810 3178 8822                  

$$

ALC023-025-129-280411-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0056.151228T0325Z-000000T0000Z/
/LRYA1.1.ER.151228T0325Z.160101T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until further notice...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Tombigbee River Near Leroy
* From tomorrow late evening until further notice.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 20.6 feet. 
* No flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 24 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late evening and continue to 
  rise near 27.6 feet by Thursday evening. Additional rises are possible 
  thereafter.

&&

LAT...LON 3160 8810 3160 8806 3149 8786 3114 8792
 3114 8802 3149 8793                  

$$

ALC039-041-053-280411-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0050.000000T0000Z-151228T2236Z/
/RVFA1.1.ER.151225T1348Z.151226T1030Z.151228T1636Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Monday afternoon...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Conecuh River At River Falls
* until Monday afternoon.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 40.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 37 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 40.3 feet by after midnight tomorrow. 
  The river will fall below flood stage  late Monday morning.
* At 40 feet, Considerable flooding of farmlands and some rural roads in the 
area will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3137 8653 3132 8649 3111 8676 3118 8680


$$

ALC039-053-280411-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0040.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BWTA1.1.ER.151226T1945Z.151229T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Conecuh River At Brewton
* until further notice.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 27.2 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 27 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 29.2 feet by Tuesday early afternoon 
  then begin falling.
* At 27 feet, Flooding of farmland in the area will occur and cattle should be 
moved to higher ground if this has not already been done.  

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8680 3111 8676 3103 8709 3107 8712


$$

ALC053-FLC033-280411-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0039.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.151224T0452Z.151230T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* until further notice.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 19.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 21.1 feet by Wednesday early afternoon 
  then begin falling.
* At 19.5 feet, Flooding of farm and pasture lands will gradually subside as the 
river level drops, but some flooding will continue the next several days.  

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

ALC039-FLC091-113-280411-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0049.000000T0000Z-151228T1832Z/
/MLGF1.1.ER.151226T0436Z.151227T1200Z.151228T1232Z.UU/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Monday afternoon...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Yellow River At Milligan
* until Monday afternoon.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 14.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 14.6 feet by tomorrow morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage  Monday morning.
* At 14.4 feet, Flooding in old milligan will subside as the level drops below 14 
feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8658 3099 8652 3069 8663 3069 8667


$$

MSC039-041-111-280411-
/O.CON.KMOB.FL.W.0047.000000T0000Z-151230T1200Z/
/MCLM6.1.ER.151225T1211Z.151225T1830Z.151230T0600Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Leaf Near Mclain
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 12PM Friday the stage was 19 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by early Wednesday 
  morning.
* At 19 feet, Flooding of lowlands and agricultural land will subside as the 
water level drops below 18 feet.  

&&

LAT...LON 3119 8914 3125 8914 3123 8885 3099 8871
 3098 8877 3114 8887                  

$$

MSC039-041-153-280411-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0048.000000T0000Z-160101T0000Z/
/LEKM6.1.ER.151225T2021Z.151228T1800Z.151231T1800Z.NO/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Thursday evening...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Chickasawhay At Leakesville
* until Thursday evening.
* At 09PM Saturday the stage was 21.1 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 20 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 22.5 feet by Monday early afternoon. 
  The river will fall below flood stage  Thursday early afternoon.
* At 22 feet, Flooding of lowlands in the area will continue and some roads in 
low lying areas will become cut off by high water.  

&&

LAT...LON 3144 8857 3144 8846 3108 8854 3098 8873
 3100 8875 3110 8858                  

$$

ALC039-053-FLC091-113-270441-
/O.CAN.KMOB.FL.W.0046.000000T0000Z-151227T0530Z/
/BAKF1.1.ER.151224T1619Z.151225T1601Z.151227T0119Z.UU/
1011 PM CST SAT DEC 26 2015

The FLOOD WARNING is CANCELLED for
  The Blackwater River Near Baker
* until this evening.
* At 9PM Saturday the stage was 10.7 feet. 
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* Water levels along the Blackwater River near Baker are expected to continue to fall.  

&&

LAT...LON 3099 8674 3099 8671 3075 8672 3068 8688
 3070 8690 3082 8675                  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
708 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LOW END MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA. VISIBILITY MAY BECOME LOCALLY REDUCED TO MVFR TO
IFR LEVELS NEAR HEAVIER CONVECTION. AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER FOG MAY
DEVELOP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015/

NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BETWEEN A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WEAK
IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS RESULTED IN THE
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION...MOST NOTABLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS CONVECTION CLOSELY FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING OVER SATURATED GROUNDS...BUT SO FAR RAINFALL
RATES HAVE BEEN MINIMAL ENOUGH TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS LOW.
OTHERWISE...UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS CHRISTMAS EVE MORNING...WITH 4 AM
TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.
IN FACT...THE 4 AM TEMPERATURE AT MOBILE AND PENSACOLA ARE ONLY ABOUT
4 DEGREES AWAY FROM TODAY'S RECORD HIGHS OF 78 DEGREES AT BOTH
LOCATIONS.

THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE AREA TODAY. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN
1.7 AND 1.9 INCHES WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IF STRONGER STORMS
TRAIN OVER LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED BETWEEN 4-6 INCHES OR MORE
OF RAIN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
LARGE SCALE FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AN ELEVATED RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE GRAPHICS AND HWO. THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY WITH MLCAPE
VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY WITH LESS DYNAMICS IN
PLAY...SO THE OVERALL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LIMITED.
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL. NEAR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EASTERN GULF TONIGHT...AND THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME. POPS
WILL BE LOWER TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE THROUGH THE
EVENING...THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS A BIT MORE ROBUST IN COVERAGE CLOSER TO
THE COAST...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL DENSE FOG
FORMATION. LOWS FOR CHRISTMAS MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE ABOUT 25
TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. /21

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE WESTERN STATES EVOLVES INTO A CUT OFF LOW ON SATURDAY
CENTERED NEAR THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER WHICH CONTINUES INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS A RATHER UNUSUAL FEATURE EVEN
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHT IN THE UPPER LOW ABOUT
4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...A SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EAST CENTRAL STATES ON FRIDAY. THIS IN TURN LEADS
TO A SERIES OF SUBTLE SURFACE WAVES MOVING ALONG A REJUVENATED
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE ARKLATEX TO NEAR THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MEANWHILE ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW...THEN SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN TEXAS
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING
NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS GENERALLY ORIENTED ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH MAINTAINS A MOIST
AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GENERALLY EAST OF I-65 ON BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-65 CLOSER TO
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SOMEWHAT BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT. SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR EACH NIGHT.  OF NOTE IS THAT 850 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR 16C ON CHRISTMAS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THEN MODESTLY DROP TO 15-16C FOR
SATURDAY...BUT STILL ABOUT 1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
CONSIDERING THIS AND THE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN...EXPECT RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON CHRISTMAS AT MOBILE AND PENSACOLA THEN NEAR
RECORD HIGHS ON SATURDAY. HERE IS A TABLE OF CURRENT RECORDS AND OUR
FORECAST HIGHS FOR BOTH DAYS...

FRIDAY   MOBILE    RECORD 77 FORECAST 78
         PENSACOLA RECORD 78 FORECAST 78

SATURDAY MOBILE    RECORD 78 FORECAST 77
         PENSACOLA RECORD 78 FORECAST 77

LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...ABOUT 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /29

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN MEXICO TO NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER ON SUNDAY
WITH THE 500 MB HEIGHT DROPPING TO A STUNNING 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND EJECTS OFF TO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.  ANOTHER STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DROPS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES MEANWHILE AND THEN ADVANCES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS OCCLUDES
WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...AND FOLLOWS THE UPPER SYSTEM TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING A TRAILING AND
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE 850
MB FLOW INCREASES TO 40-60 KNOTS ON MONDAY WITH THE STRONGEST 850 MB
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA...CLOSEST TO THE
TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE REGION. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LINE OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...WITH
SURFACE BASED CAPES POSSIBLY REACHING AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THESE STORMS. THE STRONG 850 MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN HIGH
HELICITY VALUES WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT
IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN THAT
TIMING THE MOVEMENT OF CUT OFF UPPER LOWS IS CHALLENGING...THIS
IMPACTS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING WITH POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FOR
MONDAY. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN WORDING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR. CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY INCREASE TO LIKELY FOR MONDAY WITH
GOOD CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH WITH AN OVERRUNNING FLOW PERSISTING IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY
WHICH MAY ALSO BE NEAR RECORD VALUES...THEN TEMPERATURES FINALLY
TREND LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND...BEGINNING WITH
VERY WARM LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TRENDING TO THE
40S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /29

MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PARTICULARLY NEAR BAYS AND
SOUNDS. A DENSE MARINE FOG ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL NOON
TODAY...AND AN EXTENSION OR ADDITIONAL ADVISORY MAY BECOME LATER
REQUIRED. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM LIFTS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR GMZ630>632.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
631 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015

ALZ051>060-261>266-FLZ201>206-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-251245-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-MOBILE INLAND-BALDWIN INLAND-MOBILE CENTRAL-
BALDWIN CENTRAL-MOBILE COASTAL-BALDWIN COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
ESCAMBIA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-OKALOOSA COASTAL-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
631 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR
BRIEFLY SEVERE...AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY HAIL. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING OF URBAN AND LOW
LYING AREAS.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-251245-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
631 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND
TODAY...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE OTHER BAY SYSTEMS.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AS
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS
CONTINUE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT AREA BAYS AND SOUNDS...
PARTICULARLY MOBILE BAY AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND...THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE WEEK.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
730 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015

ALZ056-059-241430-
ESCAMBIA AL-CONECUH AL-
730 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA AND CONECUH IN SOUTHCENTRAL ALABAMA UNTIL 830
AM CST...

AT 729 AM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER I65 AND AL
113...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF FRISCO CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
EVERGREEN...           CASTLEBERRY...         REPTON...
I65 AND AL 41...       I65 AND CR 29...       I65 AND AL 83...
I65 AND AL 113...      I65 AND CR 6...        I65 AND US 84...

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
WINDS THIS STRONG COULD BLOW OFF TREE LIMBS AND ALSO BLOW AROUND
SMALL UNSECURED OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS. AVOID USING WIRED
TELEPHONES DIRECTLY CONNECTED TO OUTSIDE PHONE LINES.

HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
GREATLY RESTRICT VISIBILITY AND CREATE PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS...WHICH MAY CAUSE VEHICLES TO HYDROPLANE. TRAVELERS ARE
URGED TO USE CAUTION.

LAT...LON 3109 8734 3123 8749 3126 8745 3126 8743
      3134 8735 3164 8696 3157 8687 3154 8686
      3153 8682 3144 8672
TIME...MOT...LOC 1329Z 231DEG 30KT 3122 8734