River Flood Warning 24, NWS Mobile, AL

054 
WGUS84 KMOB 190400
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1100 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015
 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-200400-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0024.150420T0600Z-000000T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.150420T0600Z.150421T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1100 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until further notice...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* From early Monday morning until further notice.
* At 10 PM Saturday the stage was 15.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Monday morning and continue to 
  rise near 17.9 feet by Tuesday morning.
* At 17 feet...Considerable flooding of lowlands will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

739 
WGUS84 KMOB 191515
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1015 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015
 

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-201515-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0024.150420T1200Z-150422T0600Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.150420T1200Z.150421T1200Z.150422T0000Z.NO/
1015 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until late Tuesday night...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES
for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* From tomorrow morning until late Tuesday night.
* At 9AM Sunday the stage was 16 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue to rise 
  near 17.2 feet by Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage by early 
  Tuesday morning.
* At 17 feet...Considerable flooding of lowlands will occur.  

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

628 
WGUS84 KMOB 201621
FLSMOB
FLOOD STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
1121 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015
 

...The Flood Warning continues for the following river in Alabama...Florida...
 
  Escambia River Near Century affecting Escambia County. 

.Recent heavy rains have caused significant rises along the river. 

SAFETY MESSAGE... 
Stay tuned to developments by listening to NOAA Weather radio.

&&

ALC053-FLC033-211621-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FL.W.0024.000000T0000Z-150422T0000Z/
/CTYF1.1.ER.150421T1200Z.150421T1200Z.150421T1800Z.NO/
1121 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED until Tuesday evening...The FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES 
for
  the Escambia River Near Century
* From tomorrow morning until Tuesday evening.
* At 11 AM Monday the stage was 16.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast. 
* Flood stage is 17 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue to rise 
  near 17 feet by tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage by 
  Tuesday morning.
* At 17 feet...Considerable flooding of lowlands will continue.  

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8718 3100 8715 3090 8728 3077 8729
 3077 8733 3093 8731                  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING
LIKELY AFFECTING MOST AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS REASONING IS A BIT MORE COVERAGE THAN
EARLIER EXPECTED OVER LOWER SECTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST AND NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THROUGH TONIGHT THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR STRETCHING SOUTH TO THE COAST MS/AL COAST SPREADING EASTWARD
AFFECTING MOST OTHER AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH 12Z SUN. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INTRODUCES A 35 TO 40 KNOT H8 JET
BECOMING COUPLED WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER JET GENERALLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SUN MORNING...CONTINUING INTO THE LATER MORNING
HOURS. ALTHOUGH SFC BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINALLY LOW OVER
MOST INLAND AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR STILL
NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR ROTATING CELLS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE TIMING OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE
REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. AS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO MOIST ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE COOLER
MAV GUIDANCE FOR TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN AND UNDERCUT THESE
VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY FOR CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING WFOS
THEN LEAN TOWARDS THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT ALSO DUE TO
CLOUDS AND RAIN AND BETTER WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. 32/EE

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...
AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE END OF THE PERIODIC EPISODES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IN SIGHT.

A (MOST LIKELY LINEAR) MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS OUR AREA AS WE START THE DAY SUNDAY.  WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING MUCH MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEANS AND AMPLE CONVECTIVE
VENTILATION PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK...HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO BE SEEN AS SURFACE TO 6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES HOVER AROUND 50 KTS AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE UPPER JET APPROACHES OUR AREA.  I THINK THE MAJOR LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER OVER OUR AREA DRIES OUT A BIT IN WAKE OF THE MORNING
MORNING MCS...SO WE MAY SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION AFTER IT EXITS OUR
AREA AS 850 MB WINDS VEER TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
VALUES POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2000 JOULES/KG POSSIBLE BY MID-
AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS SHOULD THEN EMANATE FROM THE
WEAKENING/FILLING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON...PUSHING
A COLD FRONT INTO THE ARKLAMISS.  MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN AS THE DISTRUBANCE MOVES THROUGH...WITH DIFLUENCE
INCREASING (ESPECIALLY OVER THE MORE INLAND AREAS) AS THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE NEXT JET STREAK APPROACHES OUR AREA.  ADDITIONAL
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AS A RESULT...AND WILL LIKELY
APPROACH SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS...
WHICH SHOULD SOMEWHAT LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  STILL...THOUGH...
GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC INGREDIENTS...
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT.  IT LOOKS LIKE OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST ODDS OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE BEST
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...ALLOWING A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS TO BE SEEN.  WITH AN
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...THE HIGH SHOULD SLIDE EAST.  THE
RESULT COULD BE THE RETURN OF A SMATTERING OF CONVECTION AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION FOR MID-
AND LATE WEEK. /02/

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT MOSTLY SOUTH AND
INCREASE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING...BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT CONTINUING INTO SUN. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BY THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK
BECOMING NORTHEAST THEN EAST LATER IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND NORTHEAST GULF. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  67  81  67  80 /  80  80  60  30  20
PENSACOLA   80  71  80  69  79 /  70  80  70  30  30
DESTIN      81  72  76  72  78 /  60  70  80  30  30
EVERGREEN   79  67  82  66  82 /  70  80  70  30  30
WAYNESBORO  77  65  83  63  79 /  90  80  50  40  20
CAMDEN      78  67  83  66  80 /  80  90  70  30  20
CRESTVIEW   84  69  80  67  82 /  60  80  80  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BUTLER-CHOCTAW-
     CLARKE-CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE-MONROE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON-
     WILCOX.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LOWER BALDWIN-
     LOWER MOBILE.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER... EE
LONG TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
555 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-191200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
555 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
SHIFTING FURTHER EASTWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS LATE TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
SOIL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES OR MORE IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TODAY. NUMEROUS STRONG
RIP CURRENTS WERE REPORTED BY LIFEGUARDS ACROSS THE GULF BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LINGERING EFFECTS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MORE INTENSE SHOWERS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING. OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE WEEKEND COULD TOP OUT AT 4
TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS RECEIVING AS MUCH AS 10
INCHES. THE ENTIRE REGION SHOULD BE ON ALERT FOR THE CONTINUED THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-191200-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
555 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATER THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY
MOVING NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.